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14.1% Postgame Win Expectancy for Indiana

JustAFanHTX said:
Yeah I’m not following him. I don’t even think Cig would say they won that game doing the same things they did all year. Yes they were superb at 50/50 balls. But they were scrambling just as much to adjust. They hadn’t been THERE before
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Agreed. I thought we took them to the deep end, especially in the 2nd half. Mendoza looked shook. Multiple post game reactions I saw mentioned it. They made a few more championship level plays than us in the end then we did and that’s the game of football
 
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aelmiami said:
That’s my thing. I won’t blame Dawson. In a vacuum you can. But we kinda gotta realize they are coaching against us as well. So there’s naturally going to be a degree of pressure applied by them vs us. IU made a good gameplan to start. But failed to adapt as the game went on. So it’s a wash imo. Same with the defense.

It’s a giant chess match. Losing some offensive mojo early is losing a handful of pawns, a knight and maybe a bishop. But we returned the favor.

The punt was basically losing your Queen and trying to win with rooks. That play will be the reason we lost imo until I die. If that play goes the other way I truly believe we win the game. Our offense was a hot knife through butter for 90% of the second half. They weren’t stopping us. They were cobbling anything together to win.

Also props to Cig for the two fourth down calls. He knew and saw what we all did. They needed those to win.
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Well said.
 
JustAFanHTX said:
Yeah I’m not following him. I don’t even think Cig would say they won that game doing the same things they did all year. Yes they were superb at 50/50 balls. But they were scrambling just as much to adjust. They hadn’t been THERE before
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IU was on the ropes taking haymaker after haymaker. The bell just saved them. It’s a tough *** pill to swallow.
 
aelmiami said:
That’s my thing. I won’t blame Dawson. In a vacuum you can. But we kinda gotta realize they are coaching against us as well. So there’s naturally going to be a degree of pressure applied by them vs us. IU made a good gameplan to start. But failed to adapt as the game went on. So it’s a wash imo. Same with the defense.

It’s a giant chess match. Losing some offensive mojo early is losing a handful of pawns, a knight and maybe a bishop. But we returned the favor.

The punt was basically losing your Queen and trying to win with rooks. That play will be the reason we lost imo until I die. If that play goes the other way I truly believe we win the game. Our offense was a hot knife through butter for 90% of the second half. They weren’t stopping us. They were cobbling anything together to win.

Also props to Cig for the two fourth down calls. He knew and saw what we all did. They needed those to win.
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Indiana taking too long to kick the fg was their best ****up of the night. Cig realized they needed 7 to win.....i had a bad feeling the second they were forced to use the timeout.
 
For all the talk of the blocked punt: that was at the end of 2 successive 3 and outs backed up in our own endzone.

We followed it up with a swift 5 minute TD drive to land us right back to the 3 point deficit with a full fourth quarter to go.

Before the blocked punt the offense had gone 3 and out 5 times and only had three drives go over 20 yards. After it the offense went for 200 yards and 2 TDs in 3 drives.

The blocked punt was the best thing to ever happen to our offense. It lit a fire under Dawson's *** to play with tempo and use our speed advantage. It shouldn't have had to come to our backs being pushed up against the wall to open up the playbook.
 
90scane said:
IMO, it came down to our inability to do anything in the first half. Mesidor was worn down and IU when heavy with 6 inline OL to gain 3 yards a carry. Had we run outside zone more than twice for 80 yards including some in the first half, we likely win. We ran outside zone twice then didn’t have time left to run it due to the blocked punt.
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100% agree. This mixed with the blocked punt pretty much sealed it. We had to play a perfect game on offense in the 2nd half to make up the 17 point hole we put ourselves in. #3 and #4 just could not generate pressure enough in the 2nd. Needed just a little offense in the 1st half. Our offense this year was just too inconsistent, seemed to coast too much.
 
Mnhurricane said:
I’d like to hear them. Not nearly enough real football talk on here.
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I mean I’ll do it but I might rant.
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Suhrthing said:
‘They don’t beat themselves’ is exactly right. They game plan well, tackle well, low penalties and don’t make mental errors or stupid mistakes.

We are the the more talented, physical team - but they’re the better team when you add it all up.
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They almost did with that late false start. That game was over at 2nd and 1. False start gave us life. Still dont know why Beck threw that ball. Toney your main guy came open underneath.
 
OrangeBowlMagic said:
Indiana yards per play: 4.40 (Season low by .4 yards, a 4.40 mark for a season ranks you 132nd in the country).

So Indiana beat us with an offense that is 132nd best on a per play basis.

This is where the postgame win expectancy stuff comes from. We pretty much controlled their offense all night. They were 40% on 3rd down, which is way below their season average. They averaged 40 points a game coming in, they scored 20 on us.

Very winnable game, obviously. And we *should* have won it. All I really asked for was us playing a clean game, and I was very confident we'd win. We didn't do it. I know the EPA stuff breaks people's brains but I cannot even articulate what a swing a blocked punt for a TD is in a football game. It's almost impossible to overcome. I fully, fully believe that even with all the other stuff, the penalties, the first half offense, the missed FG...if we just get in Kamara's way when they're not even trying to block the kick, we win a natty.

Would have rather lost 38-10, honestly.
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As far as PGWE, you nailed it regarding the down-to-down stuff. And when Indiana needs to convert multiple 3rd and 4th downs just to have a stat profile filled with purple ^^, statistically speaking if you were to run this game back over and over, that wouldn't happen again. That is math, backtested against thousands of CFB games. Indiana is not some magical outlier.

They converted when they had to. That is why they win 14% of the time. And why we beat Ohio State and fell in the 30% bucket. I understand the point D$ is making - that game script renders certain statistics invaluable in some regard. Its hard to say what we might have done vs Ohio State had we not gotten the pick 6, but we DID get the pick 6 and adjusted our offense accordingly, playing conservative for a win. It makes sense that something like that is not properly accounted for in PGWE. I get it.

But look at that statistical profile ^^. We had 50 lbs on their DL. Fletcher was running downhill in 2H and Indiana was running into walls. Mendoza was pressured at a multiple of the rate he has seen all season. I am not ready to say that indiana was the better team. I think we got outcoached, especially in 1H, but I don't think we got outplayed. Player for player, our guys were better.

I looked quickly and couldn't find any 2H epa stuff. Game on paper always posts the 1H stuff, but I didn't see any 2H stuff there or elsewhere. I bet those numbers would be insane. They couldn't do ****. A bull**** PI call here, and converted 4th down there, and they held on for a win. But we were coming for them.
 
DMoney said:
Every game has its own game flow. To me, that’s like asking about the shape of snow flake. The things they did well to win were the things they’ve done well all year. That includes running the ball, which may have been the most damning for us.

We pushed them to more fourth downs because we were the best defense they played. But they converted their bread-and-butter throws that they execute better than anyone. The punt block was a new mistake by us, but they didn’t make an equivalent mistake because they are elite at playing sound. It’s what they’re known for.

Ultimately, I think our team maximized its ceiling. We had a great team culture, some huge on-field strengths, but were always fighting against a lack of explosiveness and self-imposed errors. We could have won it all, but Indiana earned their title all season and last night.
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They had a 2.9 yards per carry average. Nothing damning about that. Outside of letting them pop a few runs here our run D was outstanding.
 
I usually don’t agree with win expectancy bc it favors teams with more explosive offenses and generally denies the due teams like us should get bc we’re slow and methodical. However last night I agree with it. But not bc of any of the advanced stats, just bc of this one stat. Our offense and defense scored more points than their offense and defense. We won 2/3 of the game and had a 10-0 swing go against us in the 3rd phase.

And the worst part is that it wasn’t even some fake punt that caught us, or an exotic rush or fluke bobbled snap etc. They were in ******* punt safe and the snap was clean. How the **** do you let that get blocked?
 
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DMoney said:
I don’t buy this at all. We trailed the entire game. They won the way they’ve won every game they’ve played this season.

They aren’t the best team of all time or any of that other nonsense. But they were the best team this season and the best team yesterday.
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Yup the 14.1% post-game win expectancy number comes from Bill Connelly and his Sp+ model.

This the same Sp+ model that has yielded this final ranking. This is after last night game. This is how Bill Connelly thinks the team rank after the playoffs. The Sp+ model is retarded.

www.espn.com

2025 college football SP+ rankings for all 136 FBS teams

The final SP+ rankings, plus strength of schedule and résumé SP+, for the 2025 season.
www.espn.com www.espn.com

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PalyCane said:
Yup the 14.1% post-game win expectancy number comes from Bill Connelly and his Sp+ model.

This the same Sp+ model that has yielded this final ranking. This is after last night game. This is how Bill Connelly thinks the team rank after the playoffs. The Sp+ model is retarded.

www.espn.com

2025 college football SP+ rankings for all 136 FBS teams

The final SP+ rankings, plus strength of schedule and résumé SP+, for the 2025 season.
www.espn.com www.espn.com

View attachment 354190
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Lmao. Utah!

I truly don’t understand how anyone pays attention to Connelly. He is useless.
 
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