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14.1% Postgame Win Expectancy for Indiana

DMoney said:
I feel emotionally fine.

This take is much more concentrated on Miami boards than the public at large.
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I respect that. I’ll say this. We were a tunnel screen away from an entirely different game. A middle school play call that could only go to that guy to work because there were no keys for him in that lineup. I think if we take the lead there it’s quite possible we never give it up. But game of inches.
 
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JustAFanHTX said:
I respect that. I’ll say this. We were a tunnel screen away from an entirely different game. A middle school play call that could only go to that guy to work because there were no keys for him in that lineup. I think if we take the lead there it’s quite possible we never give it up. But game of inches.
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Beck knew it too
 
If the teams were a percentage id say it was a 60-40 game or even 55-45 to them.

But i think people kinda discount things like penalties , turnovers and execution like that punt block. Those things usually goes into who is the better team that day
 
DMoney said:
So you posted that they won games by being clean and winning 50/50 balls, and disagree that they won yesterday by being clean and making catches on 50/50 balls?

I'm not following. But whatever. As for what others think, I am pretty sure my "take" is the consensus from those outside Miami fan boards. They were the better team and won a close game against a great defense by playing their exact style.

On to 2026.
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You're missing the point of my post addressing your statement that they won how they've won there other games. Maybe intentionally because you picked a stance and don't want to re-address it or support it with evidence of any other game's flow.

Please back up with a specific game any game that matched the game flow of this game and where they ALL of these conditions needed to bet met: (1) a special teams turnover, (2) multiple, sometimes consecutive 4th down conversions on 4th and medium, AND (3) multiple jump balls to extend drives on 3rd and medium or worse.

Put simply, outside of PSU for a few moments in that game, they were never in the jammed up needing multiple low probability plays.

Yes, it was predictable they run 50-50 balls - not need multiple ones to survive.
Yes, it was predictable they play tight and clean and keep things in front of their zone - not get a strange punt block and convert multiple 4th and mediums.
Yes, they convert with good coaching (though less yesterday).

They have not NEEDED all of that in a string to pull off a game this year. Your statement is not accurate. It's not hard to follow.

Who cares what the "consensus" is from many who don't watch much of the actual plays. Many also thought Indiana was a different type of team.

So be it. We agree on moving on to 2026 and that some of these stats are manipulated or made up.
 
DMoney said:
I don’t buy this at all. We trailed the entire game. They won the way they’ve won every game they’ve played this season.

They aren’t the best team of all time or any of that other nonsense. But they were the best team this season and the best team yesterday.
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Better coached and more disciplined team, sure. But Miami clearly more talented and has more game changer players

Mistakes is what cost us the game not Indiana being better
 
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Whoever is better (Miami is bur not a hige deal to argue now), Mario needs to now take that next steo and finally field a team that plays smart. If Miami was even average when it xomes to penalties or just stupid plays, they're easily the best team in the country.

Please also get a new TE coach, TEs, and for the love of God get a real ******* Special Teams coach.

Great season overall though.
 
JustAFanHTX said:
It was a dime ball. If he throws it flat he doesn’t carry the momentum to score
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Beautiful play design and broken tendency in the personnel, alignment, and fake.

**** happens.

Shouldn't have determined the game.

1) Lack of focus on a punt block, 2) not being aggressive enough into their zones in the 1st half, 3) overestimating their Safety play in the first half, and (4) whatever the **** that was on the last play all played larger roles.

It's done, though. I'm grateful for the season. I watched too much of our playoff teams' games and plays to sit on my hands here in the post-game commentary.
 
DMoney said:
I don’t buy this at all. We trailed the entire game. They won the way they’ve won every game they’ve played this season.

They aren’t the best team of all time or any of that other nonsense. But they were the best team this season and the best team yesterday.
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Better coached and more disciplined team, sure. But Miami clearly more talented and has more game changer players

Mistakes is what cost us the game not Indiana being better
 
LuCane said:
Beautiful play design and broken tendency in the personnel, alignment, and fake.

**** happens.

Shouldn't have determined the game.

1) Lack of focus on a punt block, 2) not being aggressive enough into their zones in the 1st half, 3) overestimating their Safety play in the first half, and (4) whatever the **** that was on the last play all played larger roles.

It's done, though. I'm grateful for the season. I watched too much of our playoff teams' games and plays to sit on my hands here in the post-game commentary.
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I’m mostly fine. I have my thoughts but I’m honestly proud of the season we had. So I may never even share them
 
There is no universe where anyone should say they are the better team. A fluke blocked punt was the difference. Remove that and we win, despite the ineptitude of Dawson. We could have ran on them all day and Dawson refuses to adjust.
 
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DMoney said:
So you posted that they won games by being clean and winning 50/50 balls, and disagree that they won yesterday by being clean and making catches on 50/50 balls?

I'm not following. But whatever. As for what others think, I am pretty sure my "take" is the consensus from those outside Miami fan boards. They were the better team and won a close game against a great defense by playing their exact style.

On to 2026.
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This is pretty much how I thought this discussion would go. It's almost a chicken and egg thing. Were they the better team? The stat sheet tells you no. The play by play tells you no. But, they did what good "teams" do, which is play cleaner than you. So yeah, they were the better "team".

At the end of the day, I think it was a good football game between the 2 best teams in the country that could've easily gone either way. 4 plays decided the game. Two back shoulders, a QB draw, and most importantly, a blocked punt. If any of those 4 go Miami's way, we likely win. It was a very winnable game, that's the part that will sting the most. It'd almost be better if this team was 2019 LSU and blew us off the field and we could just say, "Welp, they're way better." Obviously that was never the case, that discussion was comical. So we lost a natty in a game we very easily could have (and I can argue should have) won.
 
DMoney said:
So you posted that they won games by being clean and winning 50/50 balls, and disagree that they won yesterday by being clean and making catches on 50/50 balls?

I'm not following. But whatever. As for what others think, I am pretty sure my "take" is the consensus from those outside Miami fan boards. They were the better team and won a close game against a great defense by playing their exact style.

On to 2026.
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They were the better team in the 1st half. They were clearly not the better team in the 2nd half.

I want to say if this game goes 5 quarters, we win. But it looked to me like our defense was getting tired down the stretch. D was on the field too much in 1H.
 
LuCane said:
Please back up with a specific game any game that matched the game flow of this game and where they ALL of these conditions needed to bet met: (1) a special teams turnover, (2) multiple, sometimes consecutive 4th down conversions on 4th and medium, AND (3) multiple jump balls to extend drives on 3rd and medium or worse.
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Every game has its own game flow. To me, that’s like asking about the shape of snow flake. The things they did well to win were the things they’ve done well all year. That includes running the ball, which may have been the most damning for us.

We pushed them to more fourth downs because we were the best defense they played. But they converted their bread-and-butter throws that they execute better than anyone. The punt block was a new mistake by us, but they didn’t make an equivalent mistake because they are elite at playing sound. It’s what they’re known for.

Ultimately, I think our team maximized its ceiling. We had a great team culture, some huge on-field strengths, but were always fighting against a lack of explosiveness and self-imposed errors. We could have won it all, but Indiana earned their title all season and last night.
 
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