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14.1% Postgame Win Expectancy for Indiana

OrangeBowlMagic said:
I think Dawson, and our whole staff, was very surprised how well they fit the run in the first half. I was as well. At the end of the day, you're almost always going to dance with the girl you brought. We bullied A&M, Taint, and Ole Miss. They thought they could do the same to Indiana, and why wouldn't you? But they proved in the first half they were better up front than those 3.
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Speaking of the run game, they didn’t stop it all game. We stopped ourselves by abandoning it.

I’ve said this before, but here’s the perfect example. First down, we run the ball and get two yards. Cool, now it’s second and eight. Instead of staying with it, Dawson bails on the run and starts dialing up random stuff and silly play calls, and now we’re behind the chains.

If you run it again and pick up two or three yards, now you’re in third and five or third and six. Those are completely manageable downs. The defense actually has to think at that point.

I just don’t get the logic. The run was working enough. Just keep pounding it, stay ahead of the chains, and make the defense adjust, not the other way around.
 
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DMoney said:
I don’t buy this at all. We trailed the entire game. They won the way they’ve won every game they’ve played this season.

They aren’t the best team of all time or any of that other nonsense. But they were the best team this season and the best team yesterday.
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You know how this works. It's down by down. We averaged more yards per play, we had more explosive plays, etc.

****, we scored more points than their offense did. But they did win the same way they've won their games this year, mostly in the regular season.
 
OrangeBowlMagic said:
We’re going to do the “Indiana is or isn’t a better team” dance for the next 8 months, so may as well get ahead of this now.

14.1% postgame win expectancy for them.

We should’ve won that game, obviously. This one will sting for a long time. It’s certainly not quite 1986, but that should’ve been #6.

Indiana beat us gaining 317 yards, and Mendoza had his worst game of the season. They were also 6/16 on 3rd down, after being the best 3rd down team of the past decade for the season.

Were they the better team? Yeah, because they didn’t give up a blocked punt and we did. But it’s crazy, I posted a few times they won all their games against the good teams with very low yardage totals. Mainly because they don’t do anything to beat themselves. And this one played out the exact same way.

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The one thing I cant figure out is how Indiana pushed Miami's D off the ball like they did especially in the 2nd half. What were they doing schematically as no team did this to us all year? It was mind boggling.

I was surprised we didn't get more push up front on our OL against their DL. Outside a couple nice runs from fletcher, indiana hung tough all night. I thought we had an advantage going into game due to our size and strength I thought.

There was one play where we hit Mendoza from behind just as he threw the ball otherwise if it was split second sooner it would have been a fumble and could have changed the momentum.

It seemed like it was just Indiana's year. Yes i agree miami should have won. Losing Lucas in first half, Brown again for whole game, our offense just came out slow the 1st half, if Lofton doesnt get hurt, maybe we don't give up that punt block. I think bauman whiffed on the missed block.

The one thing that hurt us that wasnt on the stat sheet, we lacked that one extra game breaker receiver like Jo Jo Trader who just hasn't been able to put it together to help take pressure off Toney, Daniels, etc. It could have helped in some of those drives in 1st half when we couldnt move the ball or get 1st downs.

I would not be surprised to see Jo jo in portal after season. He has been disappointing.

I think indiana was very well coached but we fought hard to come back so we have to give Mario and Dawson credit for that.

I actually thought miami had a reasonable chance to win at end and I really was surprised how poorly Beck threw that ball to Marion at end. I mean we were in their territory and had enough time but Beck just made an awful throw on that. It was like we were just not supposed to win. Just totally deflating and disappointing.

It was embarrassing how well Indiana fans showed up at our stadium. I was there and Indiana seemed to have more fans.

To get that far and close and lose was really disappointing and deflating but these miami kids fought hard so they deserve a lot of credit for a great season.

Lastly, maybe I missed him but how did Jakobe thomas play? It seemed he was quiet for most of game.

Go Canes!
 
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OrangeBowlMagic said:
You know how this works. It's down by down. We averaged more yards per play, we had more explosive plays, etc.

****, we scored more points than their offense did. But they did win the same way they've won their games this year, mostly in the regular season.
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I think it gets inflated when the other team is in hurry up and score mode. Ohio State had 70% postgame win expectancy in a game they physically got their asses kicked.
 
OrangeBowlMagic said:
You know how this works. It's down by down. We averaged more yards per play, we had more explosive plays, etc.

****, we scored more points than their offense did. But they did win the same way they've won their games this year, mostly in the regular season.
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If you all want to broaden out a "they played cleaner and made the plays they needed to make (conversions) when they needed to" as "the way they play," then I guess.

Otherwise, no need to agree with D$. That was not how they've won their games.

I will once again encourage everyone to watch the actual games. They didn't need a blocked punt in any of there other games. They didn't need to go for multiple 4th downs on a drive. They didn't need multiple 50/50 balls to extend drives. That didn't happen in any other game I watched and I watched almost every meaningful (non-bad teams) snap of their season - sometimes twice or three times.

And, for the record, I don't look at these expectancy stats and think much of them. They're like nice to haves and sprinkles on top of the real dish (the PLAYS). So, my comments aren't in support of the expectancy stats. Just the reality that the plays Indiana had to make in this game are NOT the plays they had to typically make in any other game except *maybe* PSU, and that was after a bad INT by Beck.
 
DMoney said:
I don’t buy this at all. We trailed the entire game. They won the way they’ve won every game they’ve played this season.

They aren’t the best team of all time or any of that other nonsense. But they were the best team this season and the best team yesterday.
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I think this is really just emotions talking. With enough time you’ll look back and see they were doing everything to keep us at bay and not the other way around. Even when our offense was dead
 
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Canes_ said:
Regarding the low yardage number, have to factor they lost a possession with the blocked punt. Not sure how big of a difference that makes though.

The ending was tough but if they didn't have a false start on 2nd and 1 the game is likely over right then and there. On balance, I thought they played better and deserved the win.
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It doesn’t make any difference.
 
LuCane said:
If you all want to broaden out a "they played cleaner and made the plays they needed to make (conversions) when they needed to" as "the way they play," then I guess.

Otherwise, no need to agree with D$. That was not how they've won their games.

I will once again encourage everyone to watch the actual games. They didn't need a blocked punt in any of there other games. They didn't need to go for multiple 4th downs on a drive. They didn't need multiple 50/50 balls to extend drives. That didn't happen in any other game I watched and I watched almost every meaningful (non-bad teams) snap of their season - sometimes twice or three times.

And, for the record, I don't look at these expectancy stats and think much of them. They're like nice to haves and sprinkles on top of the real dish (the PLAYS). So, my comments aren't in support of the expectancy stats. Just the reality that the plays Indiana had to make in this game are NOT the plays they had to typically make in any other game except *maybe* PSU, and that was after a bad INT by Beck.
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They made those 50/50 and fourth down plays with the same throws and catches they’ve made all season.

We gave them more problems than others because we were the best defense they played. But they were the better team this season and last night.
 
JustAFanHTX said:
I think this is really just emotions talking. With enough time you’ll look back and see they were doing everything to keep us at bay and not the other way around. Even when our offense was dead
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I feel emotionally fine.

This take is much more concentrated on Miami boards than the public at large.
 
OrangeBowlMagic said:
Yup. I said all week my main concerns were the secondary, because Brown was dead, OJ is hobbled, and Lucas was out for the first half. And they have killed teams all year with the back shoulder stuff, they're the best in the country at it. #2 was just overall cleanliness. I felt if we played the game we played against OSU or even A&M, we'd win. No turnovers, very few penalties, just a clean operation. Because we know they're not going to beat themselves. But I felt we were better on a play by play basis.

And these were the 2 biggest factors in the game. Becker killed us twice on massive back shoulder plays. And of course if we just block on a punt, we probably win.

Crushing.
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Blocked punt did it and allowing the 4th down conversions. We were so close.
 
The U is back to work said:
Yeah the first half we didn’t even look like we belonged. Glad they made it a game but whatever our game plan was, they had the better one.

Dawson was a very average OC this season compared to last year. He never really found his rhythm I felt like all year. Curious if we land Mensah if he returns to his old form because it just felt like he never trusted Beck with the ball to throw.
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It was because we had ward last year who made Dawson look better than he is. Beck is no Ward by any stretch.
 
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DMoney said:
They made those 50/50 and fourth down plays with the same throws and catches they’ve made all season.

We gave them more problems than others because we were the best defense they played. But they were the better team this season and last night.
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They did not. Not in those situations and not the way they had to do it last night. They were on their heels a good bit. You said that's the way they've won their games this season. That is not an accurate statement. And, you will be unable to support your statement with any actual game flow from any full game.

Here, read this that I wrote before the game. They did a lot of predictable stuff. The guys who would threaten us could clearly be identified. But, outside of PSU, they never had to pull it off the way they did yesterday. I get the sense you're going to die on this hill now, but as others on here have already told you, it's not a good or accurate take.
pre game INdiana.jpeg
 
LuCane said:
They did not. Not in those situations and not the way they had to do it last night. They were on their heels a good bit. You said that's the way they've won their games this season. That is not an accurate statement.

Here, read this I wrote before the game. They did a lot of predictable stuff. But, outside of PSU, they never had to pull it off the way they did yesterday. I can tell you're going to die on this hill now, but it's a bad take as others on here have already told you.

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So you posted that they won games by being clean and winning 50/50 balls, and disagree that they won yesterday by being clean and making catches on 50/50 balls?

I'm not following. But whatever. As for what others think, I am pretty sure my "take" is the consensus from those outside Miami fan boards. They were the better team and won a close game against a great defense by playing their exact style.

On to 2026.
 
I didnt see much frpm Mendoza that makes me think he this great #1 pick franchise QB

Hes not Burrow
He's not Luck
Hes not Josh Allen ( not #1)

Hes not close to those guys

Hes smart, big, but a glorifed game manager in the NFL.

I also dont think his schtick works in the NFL. Hes basically this generations Tebow and that choir bot stuff doesnt win a locker room

I also think while its genuine it has now become an act for his marketing purposes.

He's also objectively intelligent but lets be real, he's never now ging to use that real world intelligence as he's set himself up now much like Tebow did to have a life that revolves around football whetehr it works out or not
 
DMoney said:
It’s a made-up stat.

Bill Connelly applied his patented “formula” and determined that 2008 Oklahoma (which lost decisively to UF in the title) was the best team of the modern era. Haven’t paid attention to him since.
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it sounds like you might be confusing post game win expectancy and sp+
 
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