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14.1% Postgame Win Expectancy for Indiana

OrangeBowlMagic

OrangeBowlMagic

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We’re going to do the “Indiana is or isn’t a better team” dance for the next 8 months, so may as well get ahead of this now.

14.1% postgame win expectancy for them.

We should’ve won that game, obviously. This one will sting for a long time. It’s certainly not quite 1986, but that should’ve been #6.

Indiana beat us gaining 317 yards, and Mendoza had his worst game of the season. They were also 6/16 on 3rd down, after being the best 3rd down team of the past decade for the season.

Were they the better team? Yeah, because they didn’t give up a blocked punt and we did. But it’s crazy, I posted a few times they won all their games against the good teams with very low yardage totals. Mainly because they don’t do anything to beat themselves. And this one played out the exact same way.

 
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90scane said:
Miami beat itself just like it did vs UL and SMU. Penalties, special teams, INTs.
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Yup. I said all week my main concerns were the secondary, because Brown was dead, OJ is hobbled, and Lucas was out for the first half. And they have killed teams all year with the back shoulder stuff, they're the best in the country at it. #2 was just overall cleanliness. I felt if we played the game we played against OSU or even A&M, we'd win. No turnovers, very few penalties, just a clean operation. Because we know they're not going to beat themselves. But I felt we were better on a play by play basis.

And these were the 2 biggest factors in the game. Becker killed us twice on massive back shoulder plays. And of course if we just block on a punt, we probably win.

Crushing.
 
We couldn’t make mistake, and we did. Poor 1st half O, penalties, garbage ST from multiple players, and while their 3rd conversions wasn’t great, they got the plays they needed to get. And they were 2/2 on 4th down.

The better team won. They executed and we didn’t.

As I said in another post, this **** sucks, but how many expected us to be here? Many expected (and hoped) we’d to get blown out. We proved a lot of people wrong. Need to go back out there next year and finish the job.
 
I’m in Australia and have just watched the game. I feel like it was 2 evenly matched teams. We were genuinely outplayed in the first half. We had the better of the 2nd half.

Like most close games it comes down to probably 7 or 8 plays in the end. 2 4th down conversions, a back shoulder 3rd and 7, blocked punt and a pick. Give us 2 of those and we likely win. But we didn’t win those and that’s the difference.
 
I don’t buy this at all. We trailed the entire game. They won the way they’ve won every game they’ve played this season.

They aren’t the best team of all time or any of that other nonsense. But they were the best team this season and the best team yesterday.
 
DMoney said:
I don’t buy this at all. We trailed the entire game. They won the way they’ve won every game they’ve played this season.

They aren’t the best team of all time or any of that other nonsense. But they were the best team this season and the best team yesterday.
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Bingo. This is such a cherry picked stat.

They got a 10 point lead and did everything they could to ice the game. Credit to our guys for not quitting.
 
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OrangeBowlMagic said:
Yup. I said all week my main concerns were the secondary, because Brown was dead, OJ is hobbled, and Lucas was out for the first half. And they have killed teams all year with the back shoulder stuff, they're the best in the country at it. #2 was just overall cleanliness. I felt if we played the game we played against OSU or even A&M, we'd win. No turnovers, very few penalties, just a clean operation. Because we know they're not going to beat themselves. But I felt we were better on a play by play basis.

And these were the 2 biggest factors in the game. Becker killed us twice on massive back shoulder plays. And of course if we just block on a punt, we probably win.

Crushing.
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Still ****ed a Big Ten officiating crew called our Ole Miss game, knowing full well the winner was playing a Big Ten team in the title game. They helped their team by ejecting a Miami starter, knowing he'd miss the first half of the title game. Pathetic.
 
DMoney said:
I don’t buy this at all. We trailed the entire game. They won the way they’ve won every game they’ve played this season.

They aren’t the best team of all time or any of that other nonsense. But they were the best team this season and the best team yesterday.
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Agree, I think that hard pill to swallow is that we played pretty average and still had a shot to win it. They were good, we just needed a couple of plays on an average day and couldn’t get them
 
‘They don’t beat themselves’ is exactly right. They game plan well, tackle well, low penalties and don’t make mental errors or stupid mistakes.

We are the the more talented, physical team - but they’re the better team when you add it all up.
 
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Regarding the low yardage number, have to factor they lost a possession with the blocked punt. Not sure how big of a difference that makes though.

The ending was tough but if they didn't have a false start on 2nd and 1 the game is likely over right then and there. On balance, I thought they played better and deserved the win.
 
Brandinho said:
Bingo. This is such a cherry picked stat.

They got a 10 point lead and did everything they could to ice the game. Credit to our guys for not quitting.
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It’s a made-up stat.

Bill Connelly applied his patented “formula” and determined that 2008 Oklahoma (which lost decisively to UF in the title) was the best team of the modern era. Haven’t paid attention to him since.
 
Suhrthing said:
‘They don’t heat themselves’ is exactly right. They game plan well, tackle well, low penalties and don’t make mental errors or stupid mistakes.

We are the the more talented, physical team - but they’re the better team when you add it all up.
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the only reason we had the chance at the end is because they made uncharacteristic mistakes (false start on 3rd and 1 and the roughing)
 
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Hoyacane1620 said:
And a poor first half game plan/play calling
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I think Dawson, and our whole staff, was very surprised how well they fit the run in the first half. I was as well. At the end of the day, you're almost always going to dance with the girl you brought. We bullied A&M, Taint, and Ole Miss. They thought they could do the same to Indiana, and why wouldn't you? But they proved in the first half they were better up front than those 3.
 
DMoney said:
I don’t buy this at all. We trailed the entire game. They won the way they’ve won every game they’ve played this season.

They aren’t the best team of all time or any of that other nonsense. But they were the best team this season and the best team yesterday.
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Yeah the first half we didn’t even look like we belonged. Glad they made it a game but whatever our game plan was, they had the better one.

Dawson was a very average OC this season compared to last year. He never really found his rhythm I felt like all year. Curious if we land Mensah if he returns to his old form because it just felt like he never trusted Beck with the ball to throw.
 
DMoney said:
I don’t buy this at all. We trailed the entire game. They won the way they’ve won every game they’ve played this season.

They aren’t the best team of all time or any of that other nonsense. But they were the best team this season and the best team yesterday.
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You can not buy it but his numbers aren’t the only ones that would have expected us to win that game.
 
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