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10-2 according to FPI

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No_Fly_Zone said:
That's not how probability works, guys. Setting aside their suspect methodology or where these percentages come from, E$PN is only providing the chances of 9 independent events happening; they are not telling you the chances are the Canes will win out. If you understand the numbers a bit better, you might be slightly less disappointed if we don't win out, and a bit more appreciative of it if we do.

Here's what ESPN says about chances of winning each game:

CMU - 98.1%
VT - 88.6%
UVA - 65.1%
GT - 94.7%
Pitt - 65.0%
F$U - 59.5%
UL - 81.3%
FIU - 91.2%
Duke - 67.1%

The chances of us winning each of our remaining games and going 10-2 = .981 x .886 x .651 x .947 x .650 x .595 x .813 x .912 x .671 = .103. That's a 10.3% chance of finishing 10-2. That's what E$PN is saying.

For the skeptical
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Show me how you do the probability of only losing one more game?
 
prinmemo said:
Show me how you do the probability of only losing one more game?
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You add the probability of every one loss scenario together. In other words, the chance of losing to only CMU (calculated same as above, except you'd swap 1- .981 for the CMU input, which is the independent % of losing to CMU) + chance of losing to only VT + chance of losing to only UVA + etc....
 
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No_Fly_Zone said:
You add the probability of every one loss scenario together. In other words, the chance of losing to only CMU (calculated same as above, except you'd swap 1- .981 for the CMU input, which is the independent % of losing to CMU) + chance of losing to only VT + chance of losing to only UVA + etc....
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I know. I wanted you to do it. And then for every scenario to show the distribution.
 
No_Fly_Zone said:
The chances of us winning each of our remaining games and going 10-2 = .981 x .886 x .651 x .947 x .650 x .595 x .813 x .912 x .671 = .103. That's a 10.3% chance of finishing 10-2. That's what E$PN is saying.

For the skeptical
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This formula doesn't jive. Please write E$PN tell'em their calculator is toast.
 
Awsi Dooger said:
Meanwhile if you are a 6 point favorite in every game, your season win over/under is not 12.

It is 8.

A 6 point favorite will win 2/3 of the time.

That's what all of these estimations overlook. Small theoretical advantage applied often enough equates to defeats.

The administrators around here butcher that concept all the time, when somehow they think we are supposed to dominate the ACC Coastal. Nothing in our talent level equates to enough of an edge to overcome sheer logical distribution versus the opponents we play.

College football teams historically win slightly less dependably than NFL teams, at the same pointspread level once it reaches -4 and above. That's why college money lines are somewhat lower. That is evidenced by this chart:

What Does Moneyline Mean In Sports Betting and Wagering?

What Does Moneyline Mean In Sports Betting and Wagering? Definition and Examples by Expert Handicappers at Docsports.com.
www.docsports.com www.docsports.com
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What administrators and where was it said? Quote it or link it.
 
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No_Fly_Zone said:
That's not how probability works, guys. Setting aside their suspect methodology or where these percentages come from, E$PN is only providing the chances of 9 independent events happening; they are not telling you the chances are the Canes will win out. If you understand the numbers a bit better, you might be slightly less disappointed if we don't win out, and a bit more appreciative of it if we do.

Here's what ESPN says about chances of winning each game:

CMU - 98.1%
VT - 88.6%
UVA - 65.1%
GT - 94.7%
Pitt - 65.0%
F$U - 59.5%
UL - 81.3%
FIU - 91.2%
Duke - 67.1%

The chances of us winning each of our remaining games and going 10-2 = .981 x .886 x .651 x .947 x .650 x .595 x .813 x .912 x .671 = .103. That's a 10.3% chance of finishing 10-2. That's what E$PN is saying.

For the skeptical
Click to expand...

What that is mostly saying is they expect Miami to win 7.1 more games, or finish at 8-4.
 
No_Fly_Zone said:
That's not how probability works, guys. Setting aside their suspect methodology or where these percentages come from, E$PN is only providing the chances of 9 independent events happening; they are not telling you the chances are the Canes will win out. If you understand the numbers a bit better, you might be slightly less disappointed if we don't win out, and a bit more appreciative of it if we do.

Here's what ESPN says about chances of winning each game:

CMU - 98.1%
VT - 88.6%
UVA - 65.1%
GT - 94.7%
Pitt - 65.0%
F$U - 59.5%
UL - 81.3%
FIU - 91.2%
Duke - 67.1%

The chances of us winning each of our remaining games and going 10-2 = .981 x .886 x .651 x .947 x .650 x .595 x .813 x .912 x .671 = .103. That's a 10.3% chance of finishing 10-2. That's what E$PN is saying.

For the skeptical
Click to expand...

I know they aren’t saying 10-2. They are showing the probability I’m saying 10-2 because it’s about **** time we win the games that we should be winning as the favorite.
 
chreess1 said:
10-2 is a major success this year if it happens. 9-3 is more likely; however, I wouldn't be disappointed in that outcome as we are a young team and and it's Manny's first year.
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Speaking of young...its infuriating that our LBs has been the least impactful unit and they have the most seniority.
 
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Cane44 said:
10-2 would of been even better with "smarter" scheduling.... Should of played this order:
- Central Michigan
- FIU
- Bethune
- NC
- UF
etc.......
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That's easy to say, but these programs also have their own scheduling priorities and commitments. I agree that this would have been ideal, and I am also a big fan of not playing any conference games until the non-conference games are all completed (something that the Big Ten schools used to do). Sometimes you just can't "outsmart" it all and these days, the scheduling depends on how the chips fall into place. This is mostly due to conferences consolidating/expanding and realignment.
 
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