forums
10-2 according to FPI
- Thread starter Dghustla
- Start date
Advertisement
SWFLSWAGG17
My Dog has that Dog in him.
- Joined
- Jun 24, 2014
- Messages
- 3,160
- Joined
- Dec 30, 2015
- Messages
- 16,336
The formula doesn't take into account a lot of random factors like blocked extra points or 8 to 1 penalty margins.
Advertisement
canes614
Sophomore
- Joined
- Mar 10, 2016
- Messages
- 2,204
This team needs to play with a sense of urgency....a chip or something... we play to the level of every opponent early on this has to stop.....why not take some shots? On first down go play action to Jt4 with max protection ...we gotta open it up or 10-2 is out the door....
Considering we have 2 losses already what Hurricanes fan wouldn’t take it.
HamburgerSV
Sophomore
- Joined
- Oct 14, 2018
- Messages
- 1,481
9-3 has to be the minimum given the pathetic schedule.
Advertisement
That's where experienced coaching matters, we came out on offense like we were suppose to on that first drive against the gaytors, after that, it has been business as usual. The running game is their, the whole offense should consistently be available to coach enos. Our problem has been his play-calling in the redzone, he waist to many plays in their. Against the gaytors, why we giving the ball to transfer tate on a jet sweep to tge short side of the field, who he was trying to fool. But i'll give coach enos time, cause he definitely has to learn what personnel can do what, definitely a learning curve, but he seems to be a smart guy!
By the ***** them season prediction sites, next thing you know, people will start using them as a reference. If the predictions sites are all it takes, than what's the point of playing the games. That's even worst than recruiting sites that consistently is wrong in ranking class rankings, but why play the games if the champions are already determined by the recruiting class rankings, GTFOH with this nonsense!
Advertisement
Awsi Dooger
Junior
- Joined
- Jan 20, 2012
- Messages
- 2,662
Meanwhile if you are a 6 point favorite in every game, your season win over/under is not 12.
It is 8.
A 6 point favorite will win 2/3 of the time.
That's what all of these estimations overlook. Small theoretical advantage applied often enough equates to defeats.
The administrators around here butcher that concept all the time, when somehow they think we are supposed to dominate the ACC Coastal. Nothing in our talent level equates to enough of an edge to overcome sheer logical distribution versus the opponents we play.
College football teams historically win slightly less dependably than NFL teams, at the same pointspread level once it reaches -4 and above. That's why college money lines are somewhat lower. That is evidenced by this chart:
www.docsports.com
It is 8.
A 6 point favorite will win 2/3 of the time.
That's what all of these estimations overlook. Small theoretical advantage applied often enough equates to defeats.
The administrators around here butcher that concept all the time, when somehow they think we are supposed to dominate the ACC Coastal. Nothing in our talent level equates to enough of an edge to overcome sheer logical distribution versus the opponents we play.
College football teams historically win slightly less dependably than NFL teams, at the same pointspread level once it reaches -4 and above. That's why college money lines are somewhat lower. That is evidenced by this chart:
What Does Moneyline Mean In Sports Betting and Wagering?
What Does Moneyline Mean In Sports Betting and Wagering? Definition and Examples by Expert Handicappers at Docsports.com.
www.docsports.com
Biscayne Buckets 8
Sophomore
- Joined
- Jan 2, 2019
- Messages
- 916
10-2 and Manolo gonna be taking jabs at a lot of people calling for his head last weekend.
Advertisement
cowboycane
All-ACC
- Joined
- Feb 6, 2012
- Messages
- 7,712
Yeah, SEC teams are known for scheduling non conference games in Week 5.
I really don't believe we go undefeated from here out. I think we lose another 2 games maybe 3 before it's all said and done.
- Joined
- Dec 28, 2016
- Messages
- 10,808
That's not how probability works, guys. Setting aside their suspect methodology or where these percentages come from, E$PN is only providing the chances of 9 independent events happening; they are not telling you the chances are the Canes will win out. If you understand the numbers a bit better, you might be slightly less disappointed if we don't win out, and a bit more appreciative of it if we do.
Here's what ESPN says about chances of winning each game:
CMU - 98.1%
VT - 88.6%
UVA - 65.1%
GT - 94.7%
Pitt - 65.0%
F$U - 59.5%
UL - 81.3%
FIU - 91.2%
Duke - 67.1%
The chances of us winning each of our remaining games and going 10-2 = .981 x .886 x .651 x .947 x .650 x .595 x .813 x .912 x .671 = .103. That's a 10.3% chance of finishing 10-2. That's what E$PN is saying.
For the skeptical
Here's what ESPN says about chances of winning each game:
CMU - 98.1%
VT - 88.6%
UVA - 65.1%
GT - 94.7%
Pitt - 65.0%
F$U - 59.5%
UL - 81.3%
FIU - 91.2%
Duke - 67.1%
The chances of us winning each of our remaining games and going 10-2 = .981 x .886 x .651 x .947 x .650 x .595 x .813 x .912 x .671 = .103. That's a 10.3% chance of finishing 10-2. That's what E$PN is saying.
For the skeptical
Advertisement