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I’ve interacted with Awsi Dooger for maybe 15 years about gambling and I think we have different styles. He is more of an originator, he uses power ratings and stats to formulate his opinion and bets it. I watch games and formulate my own opinion, too, of course, but I rely on technical...

Agreed. The original move to UNC appears to be a setup, which makes sense. Nobody was in a rush to hammer UNC +6 first thing on Tuesday the week of the game, give me a break. They’d likely have bet Miami early to try and get UNC +7 on some misdirection. It was another 1.5 point jump in the...

All moves matter. I pay attention to the totality of the move. If it closes -5.5 or -6 then Miami isn’t who the sharps are on. It will have fallen overall. What if it dropped from -6 to -2.5 and then closed -3? You think wiseguys are on Miami for that last half point bump? Some will just...

YeAh BuT eArLy LiNe MoVeS dOn’T mAtTeR.

It’s all good, you’ve got some ignorant folks who think just because they’ve always lost money sports gambling, it’s impossible for a select few to make millions at it. It’s still very early for this line to maybe reverse, but even if it does close at -4 or -4.5 and we win by 10, some will say...

I wish I knew, too, I’d quit my job. It’s the same way some portfolio managers are able to analyze companies or macroeconomic conditions and correctly pick stocks. They don’t win all the time, but they win more often than not. This video shows how one guy did it for years:

Yeah, I figured my explanation would go over the heads of some of our less intelligent posters.

More often than not, yes. That’s why they have the money and respect to move lines. It’s a very small amount of people. It’s kind of like how when you see “Cocaine Cowboys” for the first time and learn that the overwhelming amount of cocaine coming into the U.S. in the 80’s was from one small...

I agree with this, but public bettors didn’t move this line from -6 to -4.5 in one move today. This was a 1.5 point jump due to sharp money, no question about it. Now, it could very well be a setup by some syndicate to get the line down to -4 before hammering Miami with five times the money...

Scary. Folks here will say it doesn’t matter, but that line better reverse.

True, it just matters getting an ACC win. The spread is simply a tool for prediction and discussion purposes. I expect this line to climb to -7. If it doesn't and it drops to around -4.5 or -5, that's when you'll know we need to worry. We aren't there yet.

The opener is lower than I thought. It's not the opening line that is most important, it's the closing line and the direction it moves. So far this year we saw the sharps were right with Miami as the side (against UF we went from +7.5 down to a close of +7) and the total (the O/U dropped from...