What the NFL Draft will tell us about Cristobal and Miami's evaluations

What the NFL Draft will tell us about Cristobal and Miami's evaluations

DMoney
DMoney

There’s no hiding when it comes to the NFL Draft. If you’ve been struggling with talent evaluation and acquisition, the Draft will expose you. If you’re recruiting guys with subpar measurables, the Combine will expose them. It’s an unforgiving and unsentimental process.

The Miami Hurricanes had a rough time at last weekend’s combine, with Leonard Taylor, James Williams and Kam Kinchens all performing below expectations. Javion Cohen elected not to run his forty and faced questions about his departure from Alabama. Matt Lee had a tremendous workout, but has long-term durability concerns.
All told, it’s possible that no Hurricane goes on Days 1 and 2. This is what Mario Cristobal was brought in to fix. Here’s the good news: as many as six players signed by Mario Cristobal could go in the Top 100: OC Jackson Powers-Johnson, WR Troy Franklin, OT Kingsley Suamataia, DL Brandon Dorlus, RB Trey Benson and CB DJ James. Two of those players left Oregon after Mario came to Miami, and another left to BYU when he got homesick. But all were evaluated, recruited and signed by Mario Cristobal.
I joined Peter Ariz to talk about this and other Hurricane-related draft topics on the CanesInSight Daily Podcast. First, we broke down the combine numbers for each set of players. It quickly became clear that Cristobal was recruiting a higher level of measurables than Miami from 2019-2021:

  • Kam Kinchens: 5’11, 203, 4.65, 35-inch vert, 9’2 broad
  • James Williams: 6’4, 231, 4.65, 30-inch vert, 9’9 broad
  • Leonard Taylor: 6’3, 303, 5.12 (1.76 split), 30-inch vert, 9’1 broad, 7.81 3 cone
  • Javion Cohen: 6’4, 324, 26’5-inch vert, 8’8 broad
  • Matt Lee: 6’4, 301, 5.03 forty (1.76 split) 31-inch vert, 9’3 broad
Compare those numbers to Cristobal’s signees:

  • Jackson Powers-Johnson: 6’3, 328, 32-inch vert, 8’8 broad, 30 bench reps
  • Troy Franklin: 6’2, 174, 4.41, 39-inch vert, 10’4 broad jump
  • Kingsley Suamataia: 6’5, 326, 5.04 forty (1.74), 28-inch vert, 9’2 broad, 31 bench reps
  • Brandon Dorlus: 6’3, 283, 4.85 (1.68 split), 30.5-inch vert, 9’3 broad
  • Trey Benson: 6’0, 216, 4.39, 33.5-inch vert, 10’2 broad
  • DJ James: 6’0, 175, 4.41
The most frustrating evaluation is Dorlus, a Deerfield Beach grad who outperformed every single player in Miami’s class that year. He was underrated, but not a secret– myself, Coach Macho and other board regulars promoted him as one of the year’s top sleepers. Cristobal identified him, came across the country and stole him from under Manny Diaz’s nose.

Will Cristobal be able to recreate his success as an evaluator at Oregon in Miami? That remains to be seen. But the NFL Draft will tell us a lot, and there are some encouraging signs this year.

Later in the Podcast, Peter Ariz polled some of his NFL scouting sources to get a feel for the draft range of Miami’s top prospects. Here is what he found:

Kam Kinchens: “Second to third round range was always more likely because there was an understanding that the physical testing may not be his strong suit. Obviously, he didn't put up good numbers at all. But scouts know that he went out there and ran on an ankle that was not 100%. Most of the time guys are looking for any excuse not to run. A lot of the feedback I've gotten is that it confirms who Kam is character-wise and as a football player. So I think third round is probably where Kam goes off the board. He blew the interview process out of the water and has another opportunity to to test at Pro Day. Hopefully, he’s 100%.”

James Williams: “By the numbers in his safety group, he did not stack up well testing-wise. But you understand his NFL role is going to be as more of a linebacker. Here’s the question for the scouts: they want to project him at linebacker because his skill set could be really, really dangerous there. But they haven't seen that on film. They haven't seen the consistent physicality, the consistency as a tackler or as a striker. So the film needs to match what they want him to be. I think probably fifth to seventh round, someone will take a chance on his skill set. It's going to take a scheme-specific team that takes him and really thinks they can put him in a role.”

Javion Cohen: “He’s a very interesting one. Went to the Senior Bowl and had a good week. Did not run at the combine but did a field workout, and I’m told he did a good job there. I think the question is, he's at Alabama and was All-Conference. Why do you leave Alabama to go to Miami? Team are digging into his background.”

Leonard Taylor: “Leonard Taylor did not have a productive year on the field. Before the season, I talked to people who told me he does stuff as an interior pass rusher and he has ability as an interior pass rusher that is hard to find. Does he give it a hundred percent every play? Does he have that motor? Those are the questions these scouts have tried to figure out. He did not test well. And that was something he was supposed to have in his back pocket because the production was not there. Someone will take him fifth, sixth, seventh round. Probably closer to six or seventh round for him.”

Matt Lee: “Awesome day of testing for him. He has a couple things going against him: number 1, being a center, there's only 32 starting centers in the league. A lot of times these backups now are hybrid guys who can play some guard as well as center. Matt Lee is pretty much only a center. He's not going to be able to play guard at the next level. And then the medical side. There might be some concerns that he's not going to be able to stay completely healthy for more than a few years. But that's not to say he can't get drafted late, get an opportunity in a camp. He has all the ability to play there. If the medical was clean, he'd be a mid-round guy. No doubt about it. But if he can get into a camp, stay healthy, teams won't have any objection to giving him a multi-year deal. I think probably late round to undrafted for him, a priority free agent. If that's the case, he'll have plenty of suitors because he can play for sure.”
 

Comments (236)

He identified him but he still opted for Parrish over Benson in the Portal.

But but but injury concern….

I know but Norvell took him and has evaluated and landed better in the Portal. It’s an odd situation because Mario crushes him in high school recruiting. Mario’s first class has washed out but that was when he just got here.

How the past 2 classes perform as well as the 25 class, will say a lot on the identification and development side of things.
 

There’s no hiding when it comes to the NFL Draft. If you’ve been struggling with talent evaluation and acquisition, the Draft will expose you. If you’re recruiting guys with subpar measurables, the Combine will expose them. It’s an unforgiving and unsentimental process.

The Miami Hurricanes had a rough time at last weekend’s combine, with Leonard Taylor, James Williams and Kam Kinchens all performing below expectations. Javion Cohen elected not to run his forty and faced questions about his departure from Alabama. Matt Lee had a tremendous workout, but has long-term durability concerns.
All told, it’s possible that no Hurricane goes on Days 1 and 2. This is what Mario Cristobal was brought in to fix. Here’s the good news: as many as six players signed by Mario Cristobal could go in the Top 100: OC Jackson Powers-Johnson, WR Troy Franklin, OT Kingsley Suamataia, DL Brandon Dorlus, RB Trey Benson and CB DJ James. Two of those players left Oregon after Mario came to Miami, and another left to BYU when he got homesick. But all were evaluated, recruited and signed by Mario Cristobal.
I joined Peter Ariz to talk about this and other Hurricane-related draft topics on the CanesInSight Daily Podcast. First, we broke down the combine numbers for each set of players. It quickly became clear that Cristobal was recruiting a higher level of measurables than Miami from 2019-2021:

  • Kam Kinchens: 5’11, 203, 4.65, 35-inch vert, 9’2 broad
  • James Williams: 6’4, 231, 4.65, 30-inch vert, 9’9 broad
  • Leonard Taylor: 6’3, 303, 5.12 (1.76 split), 30-inch vert, 9’1 broad, 7.81 3 cone
  • Javion Cohen: 6’4, 324, 26’5-inch vert, 8’8 broad
  • Matt Lee: 6’4, 301, 5.03 forty (1.76 split) 31-inch vert, 9’3 broad
Compare those numbers to Cristobal’s signees:

  • Jackson Powers-Johnson: 6’3, 328, 32-inch vert, 8’8 broad, 30 bench reps
  • Troy Franklin: 6’2, 174, 4.41, 39-inch vert, 10’4 broad jump
  • Kingsley Suamataia: 6’5, 326, 5.04 forty (1.74), 28-inch vert, 9’2 broad, 31 bench reps
  • Brandon Dorlus: 6’3, 283, 4.85 (1.68 split), 30.5-inch vert, 9’3 broad
  • Trey Benson: 6’0, 216, 4.39, 33.5-inch vert, 10’2 broad
  • DJ James: 6’0, 175, 4.41
The most frustrating evaluation is Dorlus, a Deerfield Beach grad who outperformed every single player in Miami’s class that year. He was underrated, but not a secret– myself, Coach Macho and other board regulars promoted him as one of the year’s top sleepers. Cristobal identified him, came across the country and stole him from under Manny Diaz’s nose.

Will Cristobal be able to recreate his success as an evaluator at Oregon in Miami? That remains to be seen. But the NFL Draft will tell us a lot, and there are some encouraging signs this year.

Later in the Podcast, Peter Ariz polled some of his NFL scouting sources to get a feel for the draft range of Miami’s top prospects. Here is what he found:

Kam Kinchens: “Second to third round range was always more likely because there was an understanding that the physical testing may not be his strong suit. Obviously, he didn't put up good numbers at all. But scouts know that he went out there and ran on an ankle that was not 100%. Most of the time guys are looking for any excuse not to run. A lot of the feedback I've gotten is that it confirms who Kam is character-wise and as a football player. So I think third round is probably where Kam goes off the board. He blew the interview process out of the water and has another opportunity to to test at Pro Day. Hopefully, he’s 100%.”

James Williams: “By the numbers in his safety group, he did not stack up well testing-wise. But you understand his NFL role is going to be as more of a linebacker. Here’s the question for the scouts: they want to project him at linebacker because his skill set could be really, really dangerous there. But they haven't seen that on film. They haven't seen the consistent physicality, the consistency as a tackler or as a striker. So the film needs to match what they want him to be. I think probably fifth to seventh round, someone will take a chance on his skill set. It's going to take a scheme-specific team that takes him and really thinks they can put him in a role.”

Javion Cohen: “He’s a very interesting one. Went to the Senior Bowl and had a good week. Did not run at the combine but did a field workout, and I’m told he did a good job there. I think the question is, he's at Alabama and was All-Conference. Why do you leave Alabama to go to Miami? Team are digging into his background.”

Leonard Taylor: “Leonard Taylor did not have a productive year on the field. Before the season, I talked to people who told me he does stuff as an interior pass rusher and he has ability as an interior pass rusher that is hard to find. Does he give it a hundred percent every play? Does he have that motor? Those are the questions these scouts have tried to figure out. He did not test well. And that was something he was supposed to have in his back pocket because the production was not there. Someone will take him fifth, sixth, seventh round. Probably closer to six or seventh round for him.”

Matt Lee: “Awesome day of testing for him. He has a couple things going against him: number 1, being a center, there's only 32 starting centers in the league. A lot of times these backups now are hybrid guys who can play some guard as well as center. Matt Lee is pretty much only a center. He's not going to be able to play guard at the next level. And then the medical side. There might be some concerns that he's not going to be able to stay completely healthy for more than a few years. But that's not to say he can't get drafted late, get an opportunity in a camp. He has all the ability to play there. If the medical was clean, he'd be a mid-round guy. No doubt about it. But if he can get into a camp, stay healthy, teams won't have any objection to giving him a multi-year deal. I think probably late round to undrafted for him, a priority free agent. If that's the case, he'll have plenty of suitors because he can play for sure.”

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Benson is a FSU guy; that’s where he played & was developed

Suamataia is a BYU guy; that’s where he played & was developed.
 
Mario evaluated them and signed them.

If the argument is that he can’t develop, that’s another point, but he had no problem developing Sewell, Thibodeaux and Holland.

That’s cherry picking, & it’s a disingenuous statement, D. I’m sorry, but there’s no way u should’ve included Benson played in 2 games in 2021 for 6 total carries and 3.7 ypc or Saumataia had one snap for Mario. Lol

U also realize, that there far more players that were “identified” that weren’t developed that were, correct? Like by a significant margin.
 
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Mario evaluated, prioritized and signed them.

If the argument is that he can’t develop, that’s another point, but he had no problem developing Sewell, Thibodeaux and Holland.
Mario “developed” 4 guys (if you count Herbert) in 6y btwn Oregon and Miami. Four. Thibs and Sewell were can’t miss prospects and Herbert signed and played 2y under other HCs. He might back door Kinchens into the fourth as no5.
 
Mario “developed” 4 guys (if you count Herbert) in 6y btwn Oregon and Miami. Four. Thibs and Sewell were can’t miss prospects and Herbert signed and played 2y under other HCs. He might back door Kinchens into the fourth as no5.
You don’t win 12 games and finish Top 5 without developing some kids.

But this isn’t a thread about development. It’s about picking and signing big-time players.
 
That’s cherry picking, & it’s a disingenuous statement, D. I’m sorry, but there’s no way u should’ve included Benson played in 2 games in 2021 for 6 total carries and 3.7 ypc or Saumataia had one snap for Mario. Lol

U also realize, that there far more players that were “identified” that weren’t developed that were, correct? Like by a significant margin.
Nobody said anything about development. That's a whole different debate. This about talent acquisition. He acquired some big-time talent and the NFL Draft confirms that.
 
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That’s cherry picking, & it’s a disingenuous statement, D. I’m sorry, but there’s no way u should’ve included Benson played in 2 games in 2021 for 6 total carries and 3.7 ypc or Saumataia had one snap for Mario. Lol

U also realize, that there far more players that were “identified” that weren’t developed that were, correct? Like by a significant margin.
things don't work out, however he does deserve credit for identifying and securing his commitment
 
The 2026 & 2027 drafts will be the first years to really gauge his Miami evals pertaining to the NFL.

By then, the 2022 & 2023 classes will all either be Red JR's or Seniors.

I don't think anyone from those classes are 3 & done prospects, except maybe Bain, but we'll see how that goes.
 
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The 2026 & 2027 drafts will be the first years to really gauge his evals pertaining to the NFL.

By then, the 2022 & 2023 classes will all either be Red JR or Seniors.

I don't think anyone from those classes are 3 & done prospects, except maybe Bain, but we'll see how that goes.
Cooper Maybe and Mauigoa for sure.
 
Nobody said anything about development. This about talent acquisition. He acquired some big-time talent and the NFL Draft confirms that.

OK, then that too is a lie. If it’s talent acquisition, then let’s go by ur definition.

Out of the classes of 2018-21, Mario had 98 commits (including transfer portal). Out of those 98 commits, assuming Franklin, Benson, Jackson-Powers, & Suamataia all get drafted, only 10% are/were drafted. That’s not a great ratio, friend.
 
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OK, then that too is a lie. If it’s talent acquisition, then let’s go by ur definition.

Out of the classes of 2018-21, Mario had 98 commits (including transfer portal). Out of those 98 commits, assuming Franklin, Benson, Jackson-Powers, & Suamataia all get drafted, only 10% are/were drafted. That’s not a great ratio, friend.
You’ve been harping on the importance of difference makers. Guys who don’t just make the pros, but dominate and get picked high. Impact pros.

Sewell, Thibodeaux, Holland, Jackson-Powers, Franklin, Dorlus and Suamataia are difference-making players. We need more guys like that, and Mario has proven he’s capable of landing them.
 
You’ve been harping on the importance of difference makers. Guys who don’t just make the pros, but dominate and get picked high. Impact pros.

Sewell, Thibodeaux, Holland, Jackson-Powers, Franklin, Dorlus and Suamataia are difference-making players. We need more guys like that, and Mario has proven he’s capable of landing them.

I have been, but more importantly well b4 Mario took to the field, my concern has not been stars (although they are important), it’s been development. My constant gripe have been: How is it that all the blue chip players that has been recruited by Bama, UGA, OSU, UofM, etc have panned out, yet somehow all the guys we’ve recruited are somehow “mis-evaluated?”

So now that Mario’s here, my tune has not changed. I’ve been very consistent that recruiting is & has not been our problem, player development has been. So while it’s cool naming a handful of players that Mario has identified & signed at UO who have or will go on to the NFL, that handful doesn’t move me b/c I can literally do that for every coach since Shannon; is that going to make me forget the remaining 85-90% of those coaches’ classes that did chit here?
 
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