We spend so much time on recruiting, but we rarely take time to look back. This series examines every class for the past five coaches- Manny, Richt, Golden, Shannon, and Coker. As Mario’s first class enters Year 4, what are the trends he needs to avoid if he wants to break the cycle?
Of course, bad coaching and development played a massive role in our downfall. But for this exercise, I wanted to focus on pure talent acquisition. That’s why I use NFL numbers. The NFL has the most standardized and competitive talent-evaluation process in football. It’s also really hard to get there- only 2% of CFB players and only 22% of four-stars make the league. And far fewer are able to stick around. As expected, our NFL decline mirrored our decline on the field.
Let’s take a look at 2003, a second-straight “Top 5” class that accelerated Miami’s decline under Larry Coker:
Four-year winning percentage: 72% (-10 from the prior class)
Total enrollees- 21
NFL players- 4
NFL games- 367
Day 1 Picks- 2
Day 2 picks- 2
Pro Bowls- 6
The class ranked 4th on Rivals. I’ve listed the players in order of recruiting ranking, with NFL players in BOLD:
FIVE STARS
QB Kyle Wright (East Bay, CA)
TE Greg Olsen (Wayne, NJ- NYC Metro)
FOUR STARS
DL Bryan Pata (Miami, FL)
OL Andrew Bain (Broward, FL)
LB Tavares Gooden (Broward, FL)
S Willie Cooper (St. Augustine, FL)
LB Jon Beason (Broward, FL)
DE Alton Wright (Houston, TX)
THREE STARS OR BELOW
OL John Rochford (South Jersey, NJ)
P Brian Monroe (Palm Beach, FL)
LB Glenn Cook (Broward, FL)
DL Dave Howell (Palm Beach, FL)
DL Eric Moncur (Miami-Dade, FL)
OL Derrick Morse (Fort Myers, FL)
LB Leo Waiters (Miami-Dade, FL)
OL Cyrim Wimbs (Broward, FL)
DL Teraz McCray (Broward, FL)
WHAT HAPPENED: The rate of decline under Coker is stunning. The Class of 2001’s four-year winning percentage was 88%. After two full Coker classes, this dropped to all the way 72%. That number would continue to plummet. The 2001 Class had four Pro Bowlers. The 2003 Class had four NFL players, total.
What really stands out is the amount of below-average starters. The guys who didn’t make the NFL (aside from the late Bryan Pata) weren’t even competent ACC players. There was no depth, and many of the players were either overweight or undersized.
In his first full class, Florida’s Ron Zook beat Coker like a drum. The Gators landed 6 of the top 11 recruits in the state, including Andre Caldwell, Reggie Nelson and Earl Everett. This class would help propel Urban Meyer to a national championship in 2006.
Several other trends emerged during this period. Star Norland WR Dwayne Bowe left Dade County for LSU. We continue to see elite local WRs leaving town. Dillard’s Stanley McClover chose Auburn, which set off a multiyear run of future NFL defensive linemen from Broward going SEC. We also saw Randy Shannon misevaluate a local DB, future second rounder Pat Lee from Columbus. This issue would plague him as both a defensive coordinator and a head coach.
BEST PLAYER: There were two Carolina Panthers All-Pros to choose from, but I’ll go with TE Greg Olsen. He was a five-star multisport athlete (track, basketball) who originally signed with Notre Dame, where his brother played QB. When his brother transferred after signing day (but before enrollment), Greg transferred to Miami and redshirted.
BIGGEST DISAPPOINTMENT: There are many options, but only one choice. Kyle Wright was the #1 quarterback in the country. He came from the same area as Ken Dorsey and was supposed to lead us into a new era of greatness. But from the moment Wright got on Greentree, he struggled with his pocket presence and timing. He took unnecessary sacks and struggled to change speeds on the football. Wright had to deal with many handicaps (rotating OCs, bad WRs, bad OL), but ultimately he lacked the vision and overall feel of Dorsey.
BEST EVALUATION: There aren’t many options here, as every three star in the class struggled. So let’s focus on one of the four-stars that hit, Jon Beason. When he was at Chaminade, Beason played running back and all over the defense. A former Miami coach told me that DC Randy Shannon actually preferred Beason’s teammate, Glenn Cook, because he reminded Shannon of himself. Cook lacked physical ability but was a refined linebacker. Beason was explosive but raw. As we saw later on with Arthur Brown, Shannon struggled with that type of player.
Beason started off at fullback at Miami before redshirting and settling in at linebacker. He ended up going in the first round to the Carolina Panthers. I don’t think he gets enough credit for his NFL career- he averaged 140 tackles his first three seasons, made First Team All-Pro, and signed the biggest contract for an MLB in football history. If not for an Achilles injury in Year 4 that took away his explosiveness, he was on a Hall of Fame trajectory.
LESSON LEARNED: Recruit multisport QBs. One of the refrains in 2003 was that Wright would be better than Dorsey because, among other reasons, he was more athletic. But while Wright was faster in a timed 40, Ken Dorsey played a much looser and more instinctive style honed by years on the basketball court. In fact, Butch offered him after a basketball game. Wright was ultimately lacking the instincts part of the equation.
CONCLUSION: The decline took a sharp turn down in this class. It would get worse. When people think of Coker’s recruiting (out-of-state busts, no-name local players, weight problems), they often think of players in this class.
Of course, bad coaching and development played a massive role in our downfall. But for this exercise, I wanted to focus on pure talent acquisition. That’s why I use NFL numbers. The NFL has the most standardized and competitive talent-evaluation process in football. It’s also really hard to get there- only 2% of CFB players and only 22% of four-stars make the league. And far fewer are able to stick around. As expected, our NFL decline mirrored our decline on the field.
Let’s take a look at 2003, a second-straight “Top 5” class that accelerated Miami’s decline under Larry Coker:
Four-year winning percentage: 72% (-10 from the prior class)
Total enrollees- 21
NFL players- 4
NFL games- 367
Day 1 Picks- 2
Day 2 picks- 2
Pro Bowls- 6
The class ranked 4th on Rivals. I’ve listed the players in order of recruiting ranking, with NFL players in BOLD:
FIVE STARS
QB Kyle Wright (East Bay, CA)
TE Greg Olsen (Wayne, NJ- NYC Metro)
- First Round
- 199 NFL games
- Three Pro Bowls
FOUR STARS
DL Bryan Pata (Miami, FL)
OL Andrew Bain (Broward, FL)
LB Tavares Gooden (Broward, FL)
- 3rd Round
- 58 NFL games
S Willie Cooper (St. Augustine, FL)
LB Jon Beason (Broward, FL)
- First Round
- 93 NFL games
- Three Pro Bowls
- 3rd Round
- 17 NFL games
DE Alton Wright (Houston, TX)
THREE STARS OR BELOW
OL John Rochford (South Jersey, NJ)
P Brian Monroe (Palm Beach, FL)
LB Glenn Cook (Broward, FL)
DL Dave Howell (Palm Beach, FL)
DL Eric Moncur (Miami-Dade, FL)
OL Derrick Morse (Fort Myers, FL)
LB Leo Waiters (Miami-Dade, FL)
OL Cyrim Wimbs (Broward, FL)
DL Teraz McCray (Broward, FL)
WHAT HAPPENED: The rate of decline under Coker is stunning. The Class of 2001’s four-year winning percentage was 88%. After two full Coker classes, this dropped to all the way 72%. That number would continue to plummet. The 2001 Class had four Pro Bowlers. The 2003 Class had four NFL players, total.
What really stands out is the amount of below-average starters. The guys who didn’t make the NFL (aside from the late Bryan Pata) weren’t even competent ACC players. There was no depth, and many of the players were either overweight or undersized.
In his first full class, Florida’s Ron Zook beat Coker like a drum. The Gators landed 6 of the top 11 recruits in the state, including Andre Caldwell, Reggie Nelson and Earl Everett. This class would help propel Urban Meyer to a national championship in 2006.
Several other trends emerged during this period. Star Norland WR Dwayne Bowe left Dade County for LSU. We continue to see elite local WRs leaving town. Dillard’s Stanley McClover chose Auburn, which set off a multiyear run of future NFL defensive linemen from Broward going SEC. We also saw Randy Shannon misevaluate a local DB, future second rounder Pat Lee from Columbus. This issue would plague him as both a defensive coordinator and a head coach.
BEST PLAYER: There were two Carolina Panthers All-Pros to choose from, but I’ll go with TE Greg Olsen. He was a five-star multisport athlete (track, basketball) who originally signed with Notre Dame, where his brother played QB. When his brother transferred after signing day (but before enrollment), Greg transferred to Miami and redshirted.
BIGGEST DISAPPOINTMENT: There are many options, but only one choice. Kyle Wright was the #1 quarterback in the country. He came from the same area as Ken Dorsey and was supposed to lead us into a new era of greatness. But from the moment Wright got on Greentree, he struggled with his pocket presence and timing. He took unnecessary sacks and struggled to change speeds on the football. Wright had to deal with many handicaps (rotating OCs, bad WRs, bad OL), but ultimately he lacked the vision and overall feel of Dorsey.
BEST EVALUATION: There aren’t many options here, as every three star in the class struggled. So let’s focus on one of the four-stars that hit, Jon Beason. When he was at Chaminade, Beason played running back and all over the defense. A former Miami coach told me that DC Randy Shannon actually preferred Beason’s teammate, Glenn Cook, because he reminded Shannon of himself. Cook lacked physical ability but was a refined linebacker. Beason was explosive but raw. As we saw later on with Arthur Brown, Shannon struggled with that type of player.
Beason started off at fullback at Miami before redshirting and settling in at linebacker. He ended up going in the first round to the Carolina Panthers. I don’t think he gets enough credit for his NFL career- he averaged 140 tackles his first three seasons, made First Team All-Pro, and signed the biggest contract for an MLB in football history. If not for an Achilles injury in Year 4 that took away his explosiveness, he was on a Hall of Fame trajectory.
LESSON LEARNED: Recruit multisport QBs. One of the refrains in 2003 was that Wright would be better than Dorsey because, among other reasons, he was more athletic. But while Wright was faster in a timed 40, Ken Dorsey played a much looser and more instinctive style honed by years on the basketball court. In fact, Butch offered him after a basketball game. Wright was ultimately lacking the instincts part of the equation.
CONCLUSION: The decline took a sharp turn down in this class. It would get worse. When people think of Coker’s recruiting (out-of-state busts, no-name local players, weight problems), they often think of players in this class.
