The Fiesta Bowl presents a contrast in styles. Miami wants to control the game with its offensive and defensive lines. Ole Miss wants to push tempo and spread the field. As Dalton Wasserman and Max Chadwick discussed on the PFF College Football Show, the game comes down to which team is able to impose its style first.
“He gets rid of the football so quickly,” Dalton said. “His average time to throw is right around 2.6 seconds for the season.”
That quick trigger has helped him deal with pressure.
“He’s the highest-graded quarterback in college football when under pressure,” Dalton said. “The sixth-best passing grade, 8.4 yards per attempt, and just a 1% turnover worthy play rate. That’s elite stuff.”
His ability to extend plays adds another layer.
“[Chambliss] can scramble for a first down,” Dalton said. “That’s what makes him so good outside the pocket and beyond that two-and-a-half second mark.”
That will be tested against Miami’s defensive front.
“Miami leads the nation, tied with Texas Tech, in pass rush grade,” Dalton said. “Rueben Bain Jr. and Akheem Mesidor have been absolutely dominant through the first two games of the playoff.”
Miami also brings pressure from multiple angles.
“You’ve got to look out for the blitz packages too,” Dalton said. “Especially Keionte Scott from that nickel spot. He’s already made a huge impact, bothering Marcel Reed for Texas A&M and bothering Julian Sayin in the pocket for Ohio State.”
Miami recorded five sacks against Ohio State, and Dalton expects more pressure in this matchup.
“He’s going to have a little more pressure than the 22% he’s used to dealing with,” Dalton said.
“He has 23 rushing touchdowns, five more than any other Power Four running back,” Max said. “Over 1,400 rushing yards, third in the country. He’s third in the nation with 88 broken tackles and fifth with over 980 yards after contact.”
Lacy’s talent often compensates for a mediocre offensive line.
“Ole Miss has a 57.4 run-blocking grade,” Max said. “That’s 85th in college football. They only average 1.6 yards before contact per carry.”
They will face the best front remaining in the playoff.
“Miami has a 93.3 defensive line grade and an 89.3 run defense grade,” Max said. “Both of those are second only to Texas Tech.”
Miami stops runners early.
“They’re 13th in the country with only 1.1 rushing yards before contact allowed,” Max said.
To move the ball, Ole Miss will need variety — including from the quarterback run game.
“Chambliss only had 14 rushing yards against Georgia,” Max said. “He’s going to need more than that in this game. The read option is going to be huge to make Miami’s defensive line hesitate.”
“Miami leads the nation with an 87.6 team pass-blocking grade,” Dalton said. “Beck gets rid of the football in 2.35 seconds, the third-fastest time to throw in college football.”
The result is minimal pressure.
“Carson Beck has only been under pressure about 16% of the time this year,” Dalton said.
When clean, Beck is effective.
“He has an 82.6 PFF grade when kept clean,” Dalton said. “But when he’s under pressure, it drops to 45.7.”
Ole Miss does not rely heavily on pressure.
“They’re 83rd in the nation in pass-rush grade,” Dalton said. “They only blitz 27% of the time.”
Beck ranks ninth in America in quarterback rating and is capable of controlling the game with low-risk throws.
“Ole Miss has got to defend the screens, the short and intermediate levels of the field,” Dalton said.
“This has got to be the breakout game for Malachi Toney,” he said. “Ole Miss struggles defending outside toward the numbers.”
Miami has not fully opened the passing game in the playoff.
“This is the best opportunity for Miami to run the full depth of their offense,” Dalton said.
Tempo will shape the outcome.
“Ole Miss runs the sixth-most offensive plays per game,” Dalton said. “Miami is 98th.”
Controlling possession favors Miami.
“If Miami is milking the clock for six or seven minutes at a time, you like the Hurricanes,” Dalton said.
“The best way to defend Chambliss,” Dalton said, “is to keep him on the sideline.”
“This is one of the hardest games we’ve had to pick all season,” he said.
He went with Ole Miss, 28–27.
Dalton went with Miami.
“I’ve got Miami 28–21,” he said. “If you have the advantage in the trenches, you can beat anyone.”
This game will come down to pace and physicality. Whichever team controls those elements will advance to the national championship game.
Trinidad Chambliss vs. Miami’s Pass Rush
Ole Miss quarterback Trinidad Chambliss has been one of the breakout players of the College Football Playoff. A Division II transfer who was not the opening-day starter, Chambliss took over after Austin Simmons was injured and has led Ole Miss to the semifinal.“He gets rid of the football so quickly,” Dalton said. “His average time to throw is right around 2.6 seconds for the season.”
That quick trigger has helped him deal with pressure.
“He’s the highest-graded quarterback in college football when under pressure,” Dalton said. “The sixth-best passing grade, 8.4 yards per attempt, and just a 1% turnover worthy play rate. That’s elite stuff.”
His ability to extend plays adds another layer.
“[Chambliss] can scramble for a first down,” Dalton said. “That’s what makes him so good outside the pocket and beyond that two-and-a-half second mark.”
That will be tested against Miami’s defensive front.
“Miami leads the nation, tied with Texas Tech, in pass rush grade,” Dalton said. “Rueben Bain Jr. and Akheem Mesidor have been absolutely dominant through the first two games of the playoff.”
Miami also brings pressure from multiple angles.
“You’ve got to look out for the blitz packages too,” Dalton said. “Especially Keionte Scott from that nickel spot. He’s already made a huge impact, bothering Marcel Reed for Texas A&M and bothering Julian Sayin in the pocket for Ohio State.”
Miami recorded five sacks against Ohio State, and Dalton expects more pressure in this matchup.
“He’s going to have a little more pressure than the 22% he’s used to dealing with,” Dalton said.
Kewan Lacy vs. Miami’s Defensive Line
The Ole Miss run game centers on Kewan Lacy, one of the most productive backs in college football.“He has 23 rushing touchdowns, five more than any other Power Four running back,” Max said. “Over 1,400 rushing yards, third in the country. He’s third in the nation with 88 broken tackles and fifth with over 980 yards after contact.”
Lacy’s talent often compensates for a mediocre offensive line.
“Ole Miss has a 57.4 run-blocking grade,” Max said. “That’s 85th in college football. They only average 1.6 yards before contact per carry.”
They will face the best front remaining in the playoff.
“Miami has a 93.3 defensive line grade and an 89.3 run defense grade,” Max said. “Both of those are second only to Texas Tech.”
Miami stops runners early.
“They’re 13th in the country with only 1.1 rushing yards before contact allowed,” Max said.
To move the ball, Ole Miss will need variety — including from the quarterback run game.
“Chambliss only had 14 rushing yards against Georgia,” Max said. “He’s going to need more than that in this game. The read option is going to be huge to make Miami’s defensive line hesitate.”
Carson Beck
Miami’s offense starts with protection.“Miami leads the nation with an 87.6 team pass-blocking grade,” Dalton said. “Beck gets rid of the football in 2.35 seconds, the third-fastest time to throw in college football.”
The result is minimal pressure.
“Carson Beck has only been under pressure about 16% of the time this year,” Dalton said.
When clean, Beck is effective.
“He has an 82.6 PFF grade when kept clean,” Dalton said. “But when he’s under pressure, it drops to 45.7.”
Ole Miss does not rely heavily on pressure.
“They’re 83rd in the nation in pass-rush grade,” Dalton said. “They only blitz 27% of the time.”
Beck ranks ninth in America in quarterback rating and is capable of controlling the game with low-risk throws.
“Ole Miss has got to defend the screens, the short and intermediate levels of the field,” Dalton said.
Malachi Toney and the Tempo Battle
Dalton pointed to one potential difference-maker.“This has got to be the breakout game for Malachi Toney,” he said. “Ole Miss struggles defending outside toward the numbers.”
Miami has not fully opened the passing game in the playoff.
“This is the best opportunity for Miami to run the full depth of their offense,” Dalton said.
Tempo will shape the outcome.
“Ole Miss runs the sixth-most offensive plays per game,” Dalton said. “Miami is 98th.”
Controlling possession favors Miami.
“If Miami is milking the clock for six or seven minutes at a time, you like the Hurricanes,” Dalton said.
“The best way to defend Chambliss,” Dalton said, “is to keep him on the sideline.”
Two Picks, Two Paths
Max sees little separation.“This is one of the hardest games we’ve had to pick all season,” he said.
He went with Ole Miss, 28–27.
Dalton went with Miami.
“I’ve got Miami 28–21,” he said. “If you have the advantage in the trenches, you can beat anyone.”
This game will come down to pace and physicality. Whichever team controls those elements will advance to the national championship game.
