We are less than three hours away from the Miami Hurricanes and the Florida State Seminoles kicking off at Hard Rock Stadium at 7:00 p.m. ET. Before we get to the action on the field, check out what the national media is saying about the matchup:
ESPN Matchup Predictor
The ESPN Matchup Predictor gives Miami a 94.1% chance to take down the Seminoles.
CBS Sports
7 p.m. on ESPN: Miami isn't just blowing teams out on the scoreboard this season; it's a team that's also been exceeding oddsmakers' expectations nearly every week. The Hurricanes indeed have the best point differential in FBS (+39.8), but they also rank T-14 nationally with a 4-1 record against the spread and carry the 15th-best cover margin in the country, beating the spread by an average of 7.8 points per game. With those kinds of trends, it's tough to think that Miami is a candidate for an upset alert, and Florida State's road woes make it very possible that this game will get sideways on the Seminoles.
Pick: Miami -21 -- Chip Patterson
CBS Sports Staff
Straight up
Against the spread
College Football News
Consensus Line: Miami -20.5
Big Game Ben: Miami
Andre Cherry: Miami*
Riley Donald: Miami
E: Miami
Pete Fiutak: Miami
John Kennedy: Miami
Jackson Langendorf: Miami
Andrew Margolick: Miami*
Jake Margolick: Miami
Doug Millen: Miami*
Connor O’Gara: Miami*
Johnny Rosenstein: Miami
Nick Shepkowski: Miami
Clucko the Chicken: Florida State
Consensus Pick: Miami
Athlon Sports
Lassan: Florida State’s road woes and the debate over coach Mike Norvell’s future will continue after Saturday night. The Seminoles won’t have an answer for quarterback Darian Mensah and receiver Malachi Toney.
Prediction: Miami 41, Florida State 17
Wood: The Hurricanes have won every game by double digits this season. Meanwhile, the Seminoles haven’t won a road game since 2023.
Prediction: Miami 45, Florida State 17
Fox Sports Staff
Bleacher Report
Florida State (3-3) at No. 3 Miami (5-0), 7 p.m. ET
After an emphatic win over Virginia, Florida State turned around with a dud in a blowout loss at Louisville. Already, the 'Noles have ceded 500-plus yards to three opponents. Miami, meanwhile, leads the country at 8.2 yards per play. This shouldn't be close in the fourth quarter.
Prediction: Miami 38, Florida State 20
The Sporting News
Florida State’s best path to keeping this one close runs straight through the ground game, and that’s exactly where Miami is built to shut them down. The Seminoles are a good rushing team. They rank eighth nationally in expected points added per rush and 19th in line yards, and Ashton Daniels has been a big part of that with nine rushing touchdowns as the quarterback in Norvell’s offense. Florida State leans on it heavily, too, throwing the ball less often than most teams in the country.
The problem is that Miami’s front doesn’t give much of anything away. The Hurricanes rank seventh in EPA allowed per rush, fifth in stuff rate and fourth in line yards allowed, so those clean running lanes Florida State has found against lesser defenses should close quickly. And if the Seminoles get behind schedule and have to throw, that’s not a comfortable spot for an offense completing just 58.1% of its passes. Miami also tightens up near the goal line, ranking fourth in points allowed per scoring opportunity.
On the other side, this looks like a full-blown mismatch. Miami has the No. 1 offense in the country in EPA per play, while Florida State ranks 123rd defensively in the same metric. The Seminoles have struggled to stop the run, struggled to stop the pass, and been gashed by big plays all season. Darian Mensah has been about as good as it gets. He leads all qualifying Power Four quarterbacks with a 92.6 PFF passing grade, and he’s been just as sharp against the blitz as he is when defenses sit back, so Florida State can’t simply send extra pressure and hope to rattle him. Miami’s offensive line has given him plenty of time, too, allowing a havoc rate of just 8.9%, the third-lowest mark in the country. Mensah is completing 80.8% of his throws, working the short and intermediate areas and letting Malachi Toney and the rest of his receivers do damage after the catch.
The one thing working against a blowout is the pace. Miami plays slow, ranking 120th in plays per game, so there won’t be as many possessions as you’d expect from a 21-point spread. That said, the Hurricanes are so efficient when they do have the ball that it’s hard to see that saving Florida State. Miami ranks sixth at finishing drives and second in success rate, which means fewer possessions should still end in a lot of touchdowns. Coming off a bye, at home, with a rival that just got embarrassed on the road, this sets up for Miami to make a statement. I expect the Hurricanes to control the line of scrimmage on both sides and pull away by halftime.
Prediction: Miami 42, Florida State 13
ESPN Matchup Predictor
The ESPN Matchup Predictor gives Miami a 94.1% chance to take down the Seminoles.
CBS Sports
7 p.m. on ESPN: Miami isn't just blowing teams out on the scoreboard this season; it's a team that's also been exceeding oddsmakers' expectations nearly every week. The Hurricanes indeed have the best point differential in FBS (+39.8), but they also rank T-14 nationally with a 4-1 record against the spread and carry the 15th-best cover margin in the country, beating the spread by an average of 7.8 points per game. With those kinds of trends, it's tough to think that Miami is a candidate for an upset alert, and Florida State's road woes make it very possible that this game will get sideways on the Seminoles.
Pick: Miami -21 -- Chip Patterson
CBS Sports Staff
Straight up
Against the spread
College Football News
Consensus Line: Miami -20.5
Big Game Ben: Miami
Andre Cherry: Miami*
Riley Donald: Miami
E: Miami
Pete Fiutak: Miami
John Kennedy: Miami
Jackson Langendorf: Miami
Andrew Margolick: Miami*
Jake Margolick: Miami
Doug Millen: Miami*
Connor O’Gara: Miami*
Johnny Rosenstein: Miami
Nick Shepkowski: Miami
Clucko the Chicken: Florida State
Consensus Pick: Miami
Athlon Sports
Lassan: Florida State’s road woes and the debate over coach Mike Norvell’s future will continue after Saturday night. The Seminoles won’t have an answer for quarterback Darian Mensah and receiver Malachi Toney.
Prediction: Miami 41, Florida State 17
Wood: The Hurricanes have won every game by double digits this season. Meanwhile, the Seminoles haven’t won a road game since 2023.
Prediction: Miami 45, Florida State 17
Fox Sports Staff
Bleacher Report
Florida State (3-3) at No. 3 Miami (5-0), 7 p.m. ET
After an emphatic win over Virginia, Florida State turned around with a dud in a blowout loss at Louisville. Already, the 'Noles have ceded 500-plus yards to three opponents. Miami, meanwhile, leads the country at 8.2 yards per play. This shouldn't be close in the fourth quarter.
Prediction: Miami 38, Florida State 20
The Sporting News
Florida State’s best path to keeping this one close runs straight through the ground game, and that’s exactly where Miami is built to shut them down. The Seminoles are a good rushing team. They rank eighth nationally in expected points added per rush and 19th in line yards, and Ashton Daniels has been a big part of that with nine rushing touchdowns as the quarterback in Norvell’s offense. Florida State leans on it heavily, too, throwing the ball less often than most teams in the country.
The problem is that Miami’s front doesn’t give much of anything away. The Hurricanes rank seventh in EPA allowed per rush, fifth in stuff rate and fourth in line yards allowed, so those clean running lanes Florida State has found against lesser defenses should close quickly. And if the Seminoles get behind schedule and have to throw, that’s not a comfortable spot for an offense completing just 58.1% of its passes. Miami also tightens up near the goal line, ranking fourth in points allowed per scoring opportunity.
On the other side, this looks like a full-blown mismatch. Miami has the No. 1 offense in the country in EPA per play, while Florida State ranks 123rd defensively in the same metric. The Seminoles have struggled to stop the run, struggled to stop the pass, and been gashed by big plays all season. Darian Mensah has been about as good as it gets. He leads all qualifying Power Four quarterbacks with a 92.6 PFF passing grade, and he’s been just as sharp against the blitz as he is when defenses sit back, so Florida State can’t simply send extra pressure and hope to rattle him. Miami’s offensive line has given him plenty of time, too, allowing a havoc rate of just 8.9%, the third-lowest mark in the country. Mensah is completing 80.8% of his throws, working the short and intermediate areas and letting Malachi Toney and the rest of his receivers do damage after the catch.
The one thing working against a blowout is the pace. Miami plays slow, ranking 120th in plays per game, so there won’t be as many possessions as you’d expect from a 21-point spread. That said, the Hurricanes are so efficient when they do have the ball that it’s hard to see that saving Florida State. Miami ranks sixth at finishing drives and second in success rate, which means fewer possessions should still end in a lot of touchdowns. Coming off a bye, at home, with a rival that just got embarrassed on the road, this sets up for Miami to make a statement. I expect the Hurricanes to control the line of scrimmage on both sides and pull away by halftime.
Prediction: Miami 42, Florida State 13
