Midseason by the numbers

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We have the best scoring offense in the country and we're 108th in passing yards allowed per game. The second one is what loses you a game in December.

Every number here is against FBS opponents only. Everybody has played conference games now, so this is about as apples-to-apples as it gets.

The offense​

Scoring: 1st nationally, 42.8 points per game.

Yards per play: 2nd, 7.2. Total yards depend on how many plays you run. This is efficiency.

Third down: 7th, 52.54 percent.

Yards per pass attempt: 5th, 9.6.

Yards per rush: 19th, 5.2. Most of last year we were somewhere around 80th, even against bad teams, until it climbed in the playoffs.

Miami isn't built to be a big yards-per-carry team. Tight splits, duo, push. A lot of one-, two- and three-yard runs are part of the plan. Doing 5.2 in this system is a major jump year over year.

Rushing percentage: 74th, running on 51.29 percent of plays. Everybody calls Mario a caveman, but we're a passing offense. The number speaks for itself.

Sack percentage: 34th, 3.53 percent of dropbacks. That's good for an offensive line everybody worries about.

Giveaways: 16th, 0.6 per game.

Never behind the sticks​

One detail from the broadcast stuck out. FSU defensive coordinator Tony White told the announcers before the game that Miami basically never loses yardage. People groan at the two-yard duo run on first down. That's the strategy. We don't risk the loss for the big play.

Remember when Manny Diaz came in talking about how much tackles for loss mattered to his defense? A team that never goes backward takes that weapon away.

Ahmmon said Shannon Dawson will tell you the same thing at his press conference: stay ahead of the sticks and make it third-and-manageable. Early Saturday we kept putting ourselves in third-and-8 and third-and-10, and that's where we struggled.

What excites Ahmmon is how much is still on the table.

"There's still so much meat we left on the bone," he said.

He also made a prediction. "You can clip it, send it to Dawson, whoever," he said. "Teams are going to continue spamming cover 2."

Two-high, two-invert, a lot of the mug looks Florida State showed. The bet is that our offensive line won't get enough push, so we'll be forced to throw into tight zones. We adjusted Saturday as the game went on. He wants more answers ready from the start.

Some history for context:

We were No. 1 in scoring in 2024, we're No. 1 now. Last year we were in the 20s, but we were the best in the country at controlling the ball and beat four top-10 teams. Two offenses built to be explosive that led the country, and one built a different way that was elite at what it was built for. Dawson is on a three-year heater.

The defense​

Scoring defense: 10th, 15.4 points per game. Pair that with the No. 1 scoring offense and you can win a lot of games.

Yards per play allowed: 24th, 4.8. That should be closer to the top 10.

Third down: 71st, 38.89 percent. Circle it, underline it.

"On third downs, we love that blitz," Ahmmon said. Switch it up once in a while and you catch a team off guard. Make a college quarterback get to his second or third read instead of knowing exactly where the ball goes against pressure. Against a blitz, it's dink and dunk.

Yards per pass allowed: 42nd, 6.8. There aren't many good teams in the 40s.

Passing yards allowed per game: 254, which is 108th. I don't care what the per-attempt number says. If teams throw for that many yards on you, it's not good.

Run defense: 3rd at 2.4 yards per rush. 2nd at 62.8 rushing yards per game.

Opposing rush percentage: 2nd. Teams only run on us 38.74 percent of the time.

That's the whole story right there. Teams are choosing to throw on us, and they're doing it more efficiently than we want.

Sack percentage: 27th, 7.84 percent of dropbacks. Last year this number climbed late when Rueben Bain and Akheem Mesidor went crazy. It needs to climb again.

Takeaways: 26th, 1.6 per game. Not bad. Could be better.

Penalties: 121st in penalty yards, 71.6 per game. Last year was 89th, which counts as good by Miami standards. The Cam Ward year was 118th. This has been a bad stat here for a long time.

The aggressive mistakes I can live with, the selfish ones after the whistle have to go.

Ahmmon on adapting​

"We were playing right into what Florida State wanted us to do," he said.

They knew we'd be aggressive, and we stepped into the bear trap. Screens, then the 75-yard one-play touchdown to Duce Robinson that pushed Ashton Daniels toward a 300-yard day.

He's giving the staff grace on the injuries, but his bigger point is about tendencies.

Give a coordinator five games of film where you don't fix something, somebody catches you. That's why so many teams got popped this month. He wants Hetherman to do what Dawson did at midseason last year and change. Cover 2 man here and there, zone pressure on second down when you're expecting run instead of third.

Move the tendencies around.

Where that leaves us​

Ahmmon learned something about this team Saturday. It was the first time all season we were trailing all season let alone deep into the third quarter. We got punched in the mouth by a rival and punched right back.

Dawson started running outside, we ran a pitch on the goal line he didn't know was in the playbook, Malachi Toney stepped up, and we won in double overtime.

A lot to fix, but it's a lot easier to fix on a Monday after a win.

 

Comments (1)

Good stuff. Heatherman obviously has to make some adjustments and I'm sure he will. The numbers reflect what we've been seeing. The pass defense numbers are what you would expect when 3 of your top 4 corners, 2 of them for sure future NFL guys, have been out for most of the season.
 
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