Miami comes in as the favorite versus Florida

Trinton Breeze

Sep 14, 2025 1 min read

The Florida Gators come onto the road in Miami Gardens next weekend to play the 3-0 Miami Hurricanes, and Vegas likes the Canes.

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Mario Cristobal's squad is an 8.5-point favorite, while the over/under is 51.5. This season, Miami is 2-1 ATS in their 3-0 campaign, with the Canes failing to cover against Bethune-Cookman.

On the other side, Florida is 1-2 ATS this season. They failed to cover against LSU and USF. ESPN’s Football Power Index gives Miami a 75.2 percent chance to beat the Gators.

Miami faced the Florida Gators last season, as the Hurricanes covered the spread last season.

Whoever you pick, bet responsibly.

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The U is back to work

Sep 15, 2025

htownkidd said:
We will know soon since UF is about to have their weekly presser but rumors circulating that Banks, their best defensive player and an NFL IDL, is out for the year.

When he played those first few series the defense looked different. Huge loss again for them if true.

htownkidd

Sep 15, 2025

htownkidd said:
We will know soon since UF is about to have their weekly presser but rumors circulating that Banks, their best defensive player and an NFL IDL, is out for the year.

We’re about to run train on them A gaps brother.

flips

Sep 15, 2025

htownkidd said:
We will know soon since UF is about to have their weekly presser but rumors circulating that Banks, their best defensive player and an NFL IDL, is out for the year.

They should move Lagway to DT

FL Cane

Sep 15, 2025

Banks out against us. Huge loss for them on D.

3
305407cane

Sep 15, 2025

I posted it in gaytor tears but I’ll say it here too
USF scored 18 on the gaytor. They scored 12? On us

T
Trav

Sep 15, 2025

JHallCanes said:
Watching Mario break the Gator chop over his knee last year and our fans are worried we will take them lightly

Seek help

This one's easy to for Mario to keep the team in the right mindset. Remind them this will be a dangerous, desperate tram. Remind them it's Florida and we hate them with every fiber of our being. The key is reining in the emotion until game time and not being emotionally spent by Friday. I think there are enough seasoned vets in the room where that won't be an issue.

OrangeBowlMagic

Sep 15, 2025

305407cane said:
I posted it in gaytor tears but I’ll say it here too
USF scored 18 on the gaytor. They scored 12? On us

They actually scored 16. The gator gave them 2 with a snap over the punter's head.

I just don't see how we don't win this game. Obviously they have talent, the spread is only a little over a TD, and it's college football. Anything can happen.

But if we don't turn the ball over, and Beck has been really good about this so far, I just don't see them keeping pace.

Their defense has been pretty good, albeit the teams they have played aren't good on offense. But opponent adjusted they're 23rd in EPA/play. I don't think we're scoring 50 this week, but I just think with the steadiness of Beck, the power of the backs, and the fact that we are going to give our QB time to throw the ball, I see no way how this offense just totally stalls over 60 minutes.

So, to me, to beat us, you gotta push 30 points, for sure. And I don't think they can do that. They have scored *TWO* touchdowns in 2 full games against FBS teams. We scored 7 just last week.

They are SEVENTY-SECOND in adjusted EPA on offense. There are only 99 teams even ranked. Even if we look more on offense like we did against ND instead of USF, that's fine. Just keep them pinned back, win the field position battle, make them have to go 70+ yards to score TDs, and we're going to be fine. I just don't see how they put up 450 yards of offense and 30 points to beat us.

I'm thinking something like 30-20 in a game that we control throughout. Maybe a little too close for comfort in the 2nd half but I think we'll make enough plays to win on offense and our defense will win us this game. Wild thing to say.

N
NCCanefan

Sep 15, 2025

Cane30 said:
UF is 0-1 in the SEC. They have everything to still play for. I need to look over their roster. Their O has been awful. Lagway has everything you need to be a elite QB. Their C Slaughter is a NFL talent. Their LT (Barber I want to say) is pretty good. RB Baugh is a good player. Wilson is a good WR. Vernon Brown III is M. Toney with speed. They have some NFL talent on O. Their play calling is awful and so is that staff.
The D is what I need to breakdown. They have no pass rush so how is their D playing well? Banks just came back and got some pressure on Nuss, but is back in a boot now. No idea if he plays. I need to dig into the back 7. Lagway has to hit the portal.

Lagway is a terrible decision maker so definitely doesn't have "everything you need to be an elite qb". Reminds me of their big arm combine champion Richardson.

N
NCCanefan

Sep 15, 2025

hurricaneman said:
The Gators are way better than most Miami fans and the country think. Napier is the reason they can't consistently win but they flash. I said it in another thread, Lagway threw 5 INT's and the Gators were still in a position to have a chance against the #3 team in the country. They hung with and even beat a lot of good teams last year. Beck struggled against them. They have this knack to keep games close.

DO NOT SLEEP ON THIS TEAM.

LSU is the #3 team in the country because they beat Clemson that the same pollsters thought were good. They aren't. And LSU is nothing special. the only question I had in the LSU-FLA game was which qb was more overrated.

Last edited: Sep 15, 2025

N
NCCanefan

Sep 15, 2025

flips said:
They should move Lagway to DT

When he wasn't practicing he sure was doing a lot of eating.

Virgil Cane24

Sep 15, 2025

Florida coach Billy Napier said Monday he feels his team is "close to being pretty dangerous," as the Gators head into another game against a top-5 opponent in No. 4 Miami this weekend.

The Gators lost to No. 3 LSU 20-10 on Saturday, thanks in large part to the inconsistent play of quarterback DJ Lagway, who threw five interceptions in the game. It was their second straight loss after falling to South Florida at home 18-16 the previous week.

Gators' Napier not worried after losing 2 straight

Florida coach Billy Napier waved off concern after the Gators' second straight loss, saying that he's focused on helping the team make adjustments to keep improving. Florida faces No. 4 Miami this weekend.

www.espn.com

Go Canes!

StPeteCane

Sep 15, 2025

I want to beat these clowns by 100

L
LMCane

Sep 15, 2025

most important thing is to NOT HAVE TURNOVERS

limit mental mistakes

run Fletcher and Lyle just as we have been doing the past three weeks

Beck needs to be more careful with his passes

get Moore and Toney involved early!

CANEMC

Sep 15, 2025

htownkidd said:
We’re about to run train on them A gaps brother.

R
rascon

Sep 15, 2025

OrangeBowlMagic said:
They actually scored 16. The gator gave them 2 with a snap over the punter's head.

I just don't see how we don't win this game. Obviously they have talent, the spread is only a little over a TD, and it's college football. Anything can happen.

But if we don't turn the ball over, and Beck has been really good about this so far, I just don't see them keeping pace.

Their defense has been pretty good, albeit the teams they have played aren't good on offense. But opponent adjusted they're 23rd in EPA/play. I don't think we're scoring 50 this week, but I just think with the steadiness of Beck, the power of the backs, and the fact that we are going to give our QB time to throw the ball, I see no way how this offense just totally stalls over 60 minutes.

So, to me, to beat us, you gotta push 30 points, for sure. And I don't think they can do that. They have scored *TWO* touchdowns in 2 full games against FBS teams. We scored 7 just last week.

They are SEVENTY-SECOND in adjusted EPA on offense. There are only 99 teams even ranked. Even if we look more on offense like we did against ND instead of USF, that's fine. Just keep them pinned back, win the field position battle, make them have to go 70+ yards to score TDs, and we're going to be fine. I just don't see how they put up 450 yards of offense and 30 points to beat us.

I'm thinking something like 30-20 in a game that we control throughout. Maybe a little too close for comfort in the 2nd half but I think we'll make enough plays to win on offense and our defense will win us this game. Wild thing to say.

Agree with most of what you said. But I think if we get up early, that 2nd half is where everything falls apart for them. Like to the point of they start taking donations to cut Billy loose. Especially if Lagway gets hurt hurt in this game.

Fwiw, I don’t think UF defense is that good. They limited USF one-dimensional offense and then gave up 20 to an overrated LSU offense that has its own mental problems. Their defense will struggle with our multi-dimensional attack. Their DT being out just opens up everything that much more and the rbs will eat. Josh Moore with another statement against the team that had him. Toney will have a breakout game (not to us, but the nation).

My initial thought for this week: 38-13.

OrangeBowlMagic

Sep 15, 2025

rascon said:
Agree with most of what you said. But I think if we get up early, that 2nd half is where everything falls apart for them. Like to the point of they start taking donations to cut Billy loose. Especially if Lagway gets hurt hurt in this game.

Fwiw, I don’t think UF defense is that good. They limited USF one-dimensional offense and then gave up 20 to an overrated LSU offense that has its own mental problems. Their defense will struggle with our multi-dimensional attack. Their DT being out just opens up everything that much more and the rbs will eat. Josh Moore with another statement against the team that had him. Toney will have a breakout game (not to us, but the nation).

My initial thought for this week: 38-13.

They only gave up 13 to LSU. LSU returned a pick for a TD.

Holding a team to 13 points on their home field when you turn the ball over 4 times (I'll say 4 times your defense had to come out on the field after a turnover, I already mentioned the 5th pick was a pick-six) is impressive.

But LSU did get 6 yards a play, after not even getting 5 the week before against Louisiana Tech. That offense just isn't good right now, and Kelly said today that Nuss is hurt.

So I'm with you, they're not world beaters, but I think their defense is at least legit while that offense is a ******* tragedy.

T
TallyCaneFan

Sep 15, 2025

caneingville said:
Billy already said he’s sticking with Lagway.

But Harrison Bailey and Aiden Warner are the backups. Oh, you haven’t heard of them? Bailey has made rounds at ~four schools prior to UF (Louisville was one), and we saw Bailey in some action last year when both Mertz and Lagway were injured. He transferred to UF after previously being a walk-on at Yale.

thought Tramell Jones was their backup?

Gocanes1990

Sep 15, 2025

OrangeBowlMagic said:
They only gave up 13 to LSU. LSU returned a pick for a TD.

Holding a team to 13 points on their home field when you turn the ball over 4 times (I'll say 4 times your defense had to come out on the field after a turnover, I already mentioned the 5th pick was a pick-six) is impressive.

But LSU did get 6 yards a play, after not even getting 5 the week before against Louisiana Tech. That offense just isn't good right now, and Kelly said today that Nuss is hurt.

So I'm with you, they're not world beaters, but I think their defense is at least legit while that offense is a ******* tragedy.

I actually agree with this take. Their defense isn’t the reason they are where they are. This is an very talented team just poorly coached. Lagway missing time is killing him. I saw some amazing throws Saturday and some absolute CACA from him.

We are fortunate banks is out. I think we can run the **** ball. Their defense played with a lot of juice and their lbs are good players. If Beck makes good decisions, we should win and cover. Not sure why LSU struggled so much. They are probably overrated.

OrangeBowlMagic

Sep 15, 2025

Gocanes1990 said:
I actually agree with this take. Their defense isn’t the reason they are where they are. This is an very talented team just poorly coached. Lagway missing time is killing him. I saw some amazing throws Saturday and some absolute CACA from him.

We are fortunate banks is out. I think we can run the **** ball. Their defense played with a lot of juice and their lbs are good players. If Beck makes good decisions, we should win and cover. Not sure why LSU struggled so much. They are probably overrated.

I think Nuss really is hurt. Kelly said it, and he's a murderer, so I don't believe **** he says. But their offense has been pretty limited for 3 games now. 69th in EPA/play on offense. In the 80s in yards per play. Look at this offensive profile. This is repulsive.

So I'm really interested to see how we look on offense against them. I think Banks out is huge too, obviously. But I'm leaning towards it's probably a combination of UiF being pretty good on defense and LSU sucking *** right now. Look at that running game. 133rd in success rate when running the ball?!