College football has a serious issue.
And the issue isn’t the Group of Five getting a representative, as many say. It goes beyond that; there’s a glaring issue with bias. The bias, though, isn’t just a brand bias; it’s a conference bias, and to an extent, a brand one as well (Notre Dame, I’m looking at you). This bias is obvious right now as fans hang in the balance to see if their favorite team is selected to play in the College Football Playoff. The issue is that there’s an incumbent and multiple teams who have barely moved, preventing conversations that need to be had.
Another glaring issue, before I get into those teams, is preseason rankings. These AP rankings set the table for the year and determine much of the season. The issue is not the predictions themselves, but the implications behind them. Tennessee, a middle-of-the-pack team in the SEC, was ranked 24th in the preseason AP. Reasonable enough. Except, Tennessee just lost its fourth game, and was ranked 19th in said game against Vanderbilt. Tennessee has no wins over teams that were, at the time, or are currently ranked.
So, a bigger question is, why? Why were those teams still ranked?
It may sound like a conspiracy, but the clear bias for the SEC allows those teams to stay ranked to prop up its best teams when they defeat a team like Tennessee or Missouri.
Missouri did not have a preseason AP ranking, though it received votes. Yet, after rattling off wins in its first five games against 3-9 Central Arkansas (FCS), 5-7 Kansas, 6-6 Louisiana Lafayette, 4-8 South Carolina, and 0-12 (yes, zero wins) UMass, Missouri found itself ranked 14th in the nation in its showdown with Alabama, a game that Missouri lost.
This conversation brings me to my CFP rankings incumbent, no. 8 Oklahoma, which is entirely inert. The Sooners beat both of those schools, giving them two more ranked wins. They also have a ranked win over Auburn, ranked 22nd during their matchup, because they started 3-0 against 5-7 Baylor, 4-8 Ball State, and 4-8 South Alabama.
If you add up all of Oklahoma’s ranked wins, three of those schools make up its five total against teams ranked at the time they played. If you want to dive deeper into that, after the recent rankings, those three teams are not ranked (though their win over Texas now looks better).
This may seem like I’m picking on Oklahoma, and I am. They’re the inconspicuous pest of the rankings, currently. And truthfully, they aren’t a bad football team. But are they one of the nation’s 12 best, and should they remain in their spot because the 10-2 record says so? There are a lot of “not-so-bad” football teams.
Oklahoma happens to have one of the worst offenses in college football. If it wasn’t evident in their game against LSU, where they looked like a high-school offense. Oklahoma ranks no. 12 out of 16 SEC teams in total offense (no. 91 in the country), no. 12 in points per game, no. 14 in rushing yards, and ninth in passing yards. Oklahoma’s defense, though, is statistically the best in the SEC and the ninth best in the country. That is why I don’t consider them to be a bad team, but there are no teams in the top 12 who rank lower than eighth (Alabama is the lowest, which struggles on offense, too) in their own conference in total offense. Oklahoma is currently sitting around some of the worst teams in the country, offensively.
But this isn’t a total smearing of Oklahoma’s name; in fact, they’re a solid team, because defense is vital, but an inept offense and “ranked” wins should be looked at, and it simply isn’t at this present moment, or at least that’s what the committee has told us with their rankings thus far.
No. 9 Alabama, though slightly better than Oklahoma offensively, is another team that I believe is worthy of more discussion. If Alabama wins its conference over one of the best teams in the country, Georgia (would be the second time they have this season), they’re obviously in, and probably on a bye, deservedly so.
Another thing I like to look at is SP+; it’s a more straightforward way of looking at performances, resumes aside. Oklahoma’s ranking is no. 13, while Alabama’s is no. 12, and BYU is behind both, at no. 14.
SP+ is not an objective truth, but its straightforward nature helps back the idea that Oklahoma, to this point, is ranked far too high and should be fighting for its life in the Playoff. Instead, Oklahoma is nearly guaranteed a spot, and Alabama was moved into a place of protection, win or lose.
This article, to this point, probably reads much like a bitter fan, but I am genuinely concerned about the state of the sport as it pertains to the bias that lives within it.
Let’s finish with the team we’ve all been talking about, no. 10 Notre Dame. This team has a loss to Miami, yet, is two spots higher with the same record. Touchdown Jesus cannot be happy that he’s the centerpiece of a program that is rewarded for losing, rather than winning.
Alabama is a better team than Oklahoma in most statistical categories and is in the SEC title game. Yet they are one spot behind an Oklahoma team they lost to. And I’m fine with that, if Oklahoma was no. 9 or no. 10, and Alabama was no. 11 or no. 12, that’s fine. Head-to-head should matter when compared closely, but it seems that only applies to teams not named Miami.
Miami not only ranks ninth in SP+ (Notre Dame fifth) and seventh in FPI, Miami is also no. 11 nationally in total defense (first in the ACC) and no. 29 in total offense (fourth in the ACC). If you stack the Miami Hurricanes up to teams nearby in the rankings, it’s pretty obvious that they are one of the best 12 teams in the country, and the eye test, to add, would tell you they’re within the top eight.
It’ll be interesting to see how the committee evaluates this situation in the final week, and the Hurricanes need help from Alabama and BYU to lose their conference championship games. Because while I will say Miami is a better team than BYU, and probably Texas Tech, it’d be hard to leave out an 11-2 Texas Tech team that has looked solid on both sides of the ball, and you cannot leave out the Big 12 champion at 12 wins, either.
Where Miami needs serious evaluation is at the eight slot and 10 slot, where they are statistically and openly better than Oklahoma. And if only Miami and Notre Dame could have played each other to determine who belongs at number nine… Oh, wait… They did, and Miami won.
So… Is this my campaign for the ‘Canes? Maybe. But I’m also highlighting a potential injustice that may occur to fulfill the need for more SEC teams in the College Football Playoff.
It would be wrong for Miami not to be involved in talks about an at-large spot that would keep them safe from any wonkiness that may occur during conference championship week.
There should be a conversation about Miami reaching the number eight spot over both Notre Dame and Oklahoma. Especially if Alabama loses to Georgia, adding its third loss of the season.
One of the nation’s best football teams should not be at risk of being on the outside looking in for the second year in a row, especially if BYU wins the Big 12 and Duke wins the ACC.
Those two results should have nothing to do with Miami being in the Playoff, but the way the committee has treated the ACC as a whole, that is the spot Miami is currently in. Tonight’s rankings just proved, once again, that Miami is going to need a lot of luck and to be directly compared to Notre Dame to get a shot.
