Wisconsin favored by 7

[g8rh8rMD]

Not exactly going to win anyone over by comparing your team to Pitt, in any way, NFL talent or not.
Pitt is nothing to us.

I'm just giving an honest opinion on my squad, I'm not trying to impress anybody. Pitt is the closest comparison that Miami has played this year, especially when you consider that most of that team was recruited by our head coach.

(the rest is general not aimed at you NJshorecane)

I'm not sure how pointing out that two teams are not alike is pounding my chest but whatever. ND is not a good comparison for what the Badgers do/are and the numbers support that. I see now why Miami fans have the casual/fairweather reputation that they do. Some posters here are clearly very engaged in their program, but a shockingly low interest in actually talking football on this board. Seems to be all cheese/fat jokes and 'Miami is too fast'. Cool.

I go to boards all over the country because I love talking college football and the best part of bowl season is interacting with other fans bases. Obviously, some are more receptive than others.

Ok, you want to talk football? Discuss:
Dude, all of your stats are meaningless, your team played a joke of a schedule and you should be ashamed.

 

[SayWhat]

Not exactly going to win anyone over by comparing your team to Pitt, in any way, NFL talent or not.
Pitt is nothing to us.

I'm just giving an honest opinion on my squad, I'm not trying to impress anybody. Pitt is the closest comparison that Miami has played this year, especially when you consider that most of that team was recruited by our head coach.

(the rest is general not aimed at you NJshorecane)

I'm not sure how pointing out that two teams are not alike is pounding my chest but whatever. ND is not a good comparison for what the Badgers do/are and the numbers support that. I see now why Miami fans have the casual/fairweather reputation that they do. Some posters here are clearly very engaged in their program, but a shockingly low interest in actually talking football on this board. Seems to be all cheese/fat jokes and 'Miami is too fast'. Cool.

I go to boards all over the country because I love talking college football and the best part of bowl season is interacting with other fans bases. Obviously, some are more receptive than others.

You won't get much football talk around here. There are some good poster, but there are more wanna be comics than anything with a bunch of lameass material.

Good luck tonight, but not enough to win.

 

[ShadowSpring]

Not exactly going to win anyone over by comparing your team to Pitt, in any way, NFL talent or not.
Pitt is nothing to us.

I'm just giving an honest opinion on my squad, I'm not trying to impress anybody. Pitt is the closest comparison that Miami has played this year, especially when you consider that most of that team was recruited by our head coach.

(the rest is general not aimed at you NJshorecane)

I'm not sure how pointing out that two teams are not alike is pounding my chest but whatever. ND is not a good comparison for what the Badgers do/are and the numbers support that. I see now why Miami fans have the casual/fairweather reputation that they do. Some posters here are clearly very engaged in their program, but a shockingly low interest in actually talking football on this board. Seems to be all cheese/fat jokes and 'Miami is too fast'. Cool.

I go to boards all over the country because I love talking college football and the best part of bowl season is interacting with other fans bases. Obviously, some are more receptive than others.

It really isn't complicated.

f*ck off.

 

[NJshoreCane]

I don't have any feel for this one. Hadn't even thought about this matchup.

I do know that Wisconsin travels very well. When I lived in Las Vegas they played at UNLV several times and you'd always see thousands of Badger fans in town walking the Strip and everywhere else.

Not an easy test for our challenged passing game. Wisconsin is 3rd nationally in yards per pass attempt allowed at 5.7.

Not exactly a shock that 3 of the 4 playoff teams are within the top 4 in that category: Alabama is first at 5.5, Georgia second at 5.6, and Clemson tied for 4th at 5.8.

cfbstats.com - 2017 National Team Leaders

Oklahoma winning the championship would be the all time statistical outlier because the Sooners allow a laughable 7.5 YPA. I have never seen a number like that successful in the postseason. Highest I remember was Auburn in 2010 overcoming a 7.0 pass defense with Cam Newton. Mayfield has an even greater challenge. Nobody in the Big 12 allowed less than 7.1 YPA this season. It is similar in that regard to 2008 and all the fraud Big 12 teams. Oklahoma will often be a bit shell shocked at plays that unfolded comfortably in their conference but will be spit out here.

Deceiving.
The Big 10 is the worst passing conference in America.
10 of Wisky's 13 opponents ranked 81st or worse in yards per attempt. Four of those opponents ranked above 110th.
Nebraska sits at 62nd.
OSU is at 19 and FAU is 24th.

Except that Miami is right in that same range, one of the more explosive teams UW has faced but not so much better that it would render the Badgers defensive stats meaningless. (112th in Comp%, 52nd in ypg, 67th in pass eff, 49th in ypa).

The poster identified pass attempt allowed, and how that's an indicator of a championship level defense.
Again, decieving.

Let's talk opponents ave overall yards per play on offense, national rank.
UGA-55th.
Bama-54th
Clemson-63rd
Wisconsin-84th

Can't compare the defenses given the opponents played.

Now for the ND comparison:
ND's opponents average national ranking in ypp was 54th (7 teams in the top 50, 2 teams 100th or worse).
Wisconsin's was 84th (3 teams in the top 50, 6 teams 100th or worse-Minn @ 99th).

I'm not rendering the stats meaningless. In cfb all stats are skewed because we have 130 teams playing 130 different schedules. Play Navy 13 times and I can safely predict that you will be 1st in passing D and last in rushing D on the year. It's all relative.

Back to Miami/Wisconsin.
Miami will be the second best P5 team you will play this year in ypp and it's not even close.
Miami is 31st and Nebraska is 68th.

 

[Johnkester59]

Good game Miami. Hard fought, close game just as we thought. Feel for the kicker, thought for sure it was coming down to one last drive for the U. Officiating was terrible both ways, but in the end UW made the plays they had to make and won in the trenches. Game went pretty much like every non-OSU game has this season for the Badgers.

Though I've never seen UW rub it in a teams face like that before, with the chain snatch and Chryst TCMFA quote and all. Clear that they were feeling the disrespect coming from the Miami program/fanbase/(national media, mostly). Never like having bad karma like that but this team has held it in all year despite getting clowned on during a historic season for the program, they earned a little cathartic fun.

I expect we will see each other again sooner than later. You guys obviously have a **** of a program, one that is clearly a step or three above ours. But we're not going to back down until you kill us or we get there. Good game again, and good luck next year...until we see you in the playoffs

 

[BoxingRobes]

I don't have any feel for this one. Hadn't even thought about this matchup.

I do know that Wisconsin travels very well. When I lived in Las Vegas they played at UNLV several times and you'd always see thousands of Badger fans in town walking the Strip and everywhere else.

Not an easy test for our challenged passing game. Wisconsin is 3rd nationally in yards per pass attempt allowed at 5.7.

Not exactly a shock that 3 of the 4 playoff teams are within the top 4 in that category: Alabama is first at 5.5, Georgia second at 5.6, and Clemson tied for 4th at 5.8.

cfbstats.com - 2017 National Team Leaders

Oklahoma winning the championship would be the all time statistical outlier because the Sooners allow a laughable 7.5 YPA. I have never seen a number like that successful in the postseason. Highest I remember was Auburn in 2010 overcoming a 7.0 pass defense with Cam Newton. Mayfield has an even greater challenge. Nobody in the Big 12 allowed less than 7.1 YPA this season. It is similar in that regard to 2008 and all the fraud Big 12 teams. Oklahoma will often be a bit shell shocked at plays that unfolded comfortably in their conference but will be spit out here.

I'm in on Georgia in that semi-final matchup. Those types of teams (Oklahoma has a similar profile to Miami in some ways - however we are better against the pass) find it really difficult to be as efficient and move the ball against the big boy defenses of college football. They won't be getting the wide open Hollywood Brown touchdowns from deep nor will they get the flukey Anderson touchdown runs against a defense as tough and disciplined as Georgia, who has the profile of a legitimate National Championship team.

re: Miami-Wisconsin.

Usually, I'd favor the athletic advantage of a deep south team (Miami included) over a B1G team 10 times out of 10. Usually, the athleticism is just too much if the team is sound and disciplined (which, Miami, I'd consider slightly above average nationally). However, Wisconsin is a team that is sneaky athletic.

With that said, Wisconsin hasn't played anyone worth a **** BUT Ohio State this year, so their statistical measures, IMO, are a bit skewed, but still significant. They are a good team.

Like you said, I really don't have a feel for it and I'll be monitoring lines leading up to the game. This game has a "which team actually gives a ****" vibe to it with two teams that are likely disappointed with how their season finished. The metrics and trends are likely to point Wisconsin (things usually come back to where we thought of them in the pre-season - whataboutisms aside)...pre-season, Wisky was 8, Miami was 19, and a Wisconsin W puts both teams right around there by the end of the season. But, much like most Miami games, if they can get the turnovers, they'll win the game. Just not sure Miami is going to give a **** in a month, but they desperately need the rest.

I'm leaning Miami early, FWIW. I'll at least take the touchdown. They'll be limited on the number of drives they put together, so they need to be more efficient then they have in recent weeks, but I have faith they have another Virginia Tech / Notre Dame type game in them somewhere...just hope they aren't demoralized.

If this wasn't a head versus heart post, idk what was.

Always go with your head. The metrics and trends don't often lie.

 

[NJshoreCane]

Good game Miami. Hard fought, close game just as we thought. Feel for the kicker, thought for sure it was coming down to one last drive for the U. Officiating was terrible both ways, but in the end UW made the plays they had to make and won in the trenches. Game went pretty much like every non-OSU game has this season for the Badgers.

Though I've never seen UW rub it in a teams face like that before, with the chain snatch and Chryst TCMFA quote and all. Clear that they were feeling the disrespect coming from the Miami program/fanbase/(national media, mostly). Never like having bad karma like that but this team has held it in all year despite getting clowned on during a historic season for the program, they earned a little cathartic fun.

I expect we will see each other again sooner than later. You guys obviously have a **** of a program, one that is clearly a step or three above ours. But we're not going to back down until you kill us or we get there. Good game again, and good luck next year...until we see you in the playoffs

Don't know about winning it in the trenches. Griese talked that up a bit but our Dline held you to 3.2 ypc while we averaged about 6. I know about the big plays, but that's been our MO all year. Two or three 5 play drives then the big plays for a score. Your defense is just what I expected. Sound all around and good. We did get 400 yards in 20 minutes of possession.

In the end, you beat us through the air.
Your quarterback play won it. Easily the difference in this game.

 

[NJshoreCane]

I don't have any feel for this one. Hadn't even thought about this matchup.

I do know that Wisconsin travels very well. When I lived in Las Vegas they played at UNLV several times and you'd always see thousands of Badger fans in town walking the Strip and everywhere else.

Not an easy test for our challenged passing game. Wisconsin is 3rd nationally in yards per pass attempt allowed at 5.7.

Not exactly a shock that 3 of the 4 playoff teams are within the top 4 in that category: Alabama is first at 5.5, Georgia second at 5.6, and Clemson tied for 4th at 5.8.

cfbstats.com - 2017 National Team Leaders

Oklahoma winning the championship would be the all time statistical outlier because the Sooners allow a laughable 7.5 YPA. I have never seen a number like that successful in the postseason. Highest I remember was Auburn in 2010 overcoming a 7.0 pass defense with Cam Newton. Mayfield has an even greater challenge. Nobody in the Big 12 allowed less than 7.1 YPA this season. It is similar in that regard to 2008 and all the fraud Big 12 teams. Oklahoma will often be a bit shell shocked at plays that unfolded comfortably in their conference but will be spit out here.

I'm in on Georgia in that semi-final matchup. Those types of teams (Oklahoma has a similar profile to Miami in some ways - however we are better against the pass) find it really difficult to be as efficient and move the ball against the big boy defenses of college football. They won't be getting the wide open Hollywood Brown touchdowns from deep nor will they get the flukey Anderson touchdown runs against a defense as tough and disciplined as Georgia, who has the profile of a legitimate National Championship team.

re: Miami-Wisconsin.

Usually, I'd favor the athletic advantage of a deep south team (Miami included) over a B1G team 10 times out of 10. Usually, the athleticism is just too much if the team is sound and disciplined (which, Miami, I'd consider slightly above average nationally). However, Wisconsin is a team that is sneaky athletic.

With that said, Wisconsin hasn't played anyone worth a **** BUT Ohio State this year, so their statistical measures, IMO, are a bit skewed, but still significant. They are a good team.

Like you said, I really don't have a feel for it and I'll be monitoring lines leading up to the game. This game has a "which team actually gives a ****" vibe to it with two teams that are likely disappointed with how their season finished. The metrics and trends are likely to point Wisconsin (things usually come back to where we thought of them in the pre-season - whataboutisms aside)...pre-season, Wisky was 8, Miami was 19, and a Wisconsin W puts both teams right around there by the end of the season. But, much like most Miami games, if they can get the turnovers, they'll win the game. Just not sure Miami is going to give a **** in a month, but they desperately need the rest.

I'm leaning Miami early, FWIW. I'll at least take the touchdown. They'll be limited on the number of drives they put together, so they need to be more efficient then they have in recent weeks, but I have faith they have another Virginia Tech / Notre Dame type game in them somewhere...just hope they aren't demoralized.

If this wasn't a head versus heart post, idk what was.

Always go with your head. The metrics and trends don't often lie.

Miami had the ball on the 9 yard line with 5 minutes left.
The Wisky DB made a smart play by grabbing Harley to save the TD a few plays before.
This wasn't a sweat-free cover by any means.

 

[Awsi Dooger]

The poster identified pass attempt allowed, and how that's an indicator of a championship level defense.
Again, decieving.

Let's talk opponents ave overall yards per play on offense, national rank.
UGA-55th.
Bama-54th
Clemson-63rd
Wisconsin-84th

Can't compare the defenses given the opponents played.

Now for the ND comparison:
ND's opponents average national ranking in ypp was 54th (7 teams in the top 50, 2 teams 100th or worse).
Wisconsin's was 84th (3 teams in the top 50, 6 teams 100th or worse-Minn @ 99th).

I'm not rendering the stats meaningless. In cfb all stats are skewed because we have 130 teams playing 130 different schedules. Play Navy 13 times and I can safely predict that you will be 1st in passing D and last in rushing D on the year. It's all relative.

Back to Miami/Wisconsin.
Miami will be the second best P5 team you will play this year in ypp and it's not even close.
Miami is 31st and Nebraska is 68th.

I love it when adjusters show up in a thread and think they know something. The more amendments you make to a broad category, the less reliable it is, not more reliable. But that's the adjuster mindset. They can't stand anything simple at face value so they scramble for amendments and outliers, even if they have no idea about the category involved and are making it up on the fly. This site specializes in that, although I have to say some of the guys who have pushed the outlier theme have begun to understand the flaw in that approach, at least temporarily.

Yards per attempt is so deceiving I hope it continues to deceive me the same way as the past 30+ years. Likewise with preseason ratings for the past 20+ years. Combined they are a **** of a combination.

Next September there will be posters here and on every college football site mocking the preseason ratings, as soon as some highly rated team loses once or twice. I'll chuckle to myself, as always, knowing the true immense value of those ratings is late season and particularly the bowl games. Everything tends to drift back to the beginning.

 

[NJshoreCane]

The poster identified pass attempt allowed, and how that's an indicator of a championship level defense.
Again, decieving.

Let's talk opponents ave overall yards per play on offense, national rank.
UGA-55th.
Bama-54th
Clemson-63rd
Wisconsin-84th

Can't compare the defenses given the opponents played.

Now for the ND comparison:
ND's opponents average national ranking in ypp was 54th (7 teams in the top 50, 2 teams 100th or worse).
Wisconsin's was 84th (3 teams in the top 50, 6 teams 100th or worse-Minn @ 99th).

I'm not rendering the stats meaningless. In cfb all stats are skewed because we have 130 teams playing 130 different schedules. Play Navy 13 times and I can safely predict that you will be 1st in passing D and last in rushing D on the year. It's all relative.

Back to Miami/Wisconsin.
Miami will be the second best P5 team you will play this year in ypp and it's not even close.
Miami is 31st and Nebraska is 68th.

I love it when adjusters show up in a thread and think they know something. The more amendments you make to a broad category, the less reliable it is, not more reliable. But that's the adjuster mindset. They can't stand anything simple at face value so they scramble for amendments and outliers, even if they have no idea about the category involved and are making it up on the fly. This site specializes in that, although I have to say some of the guys who have pushed the outlier theme have begun to understand the flaw in that approach, at least temporarily.

Yards per attempt is so deceiving I hope it continues to deceive me the same way as the past 30+ years. Likewise with preseason ratings for the past 20+ years. Combined they are a **** of a combination.

Next September there will be posters here and on every college football site mocking the preseason ratings, as soon as some highly rated team loses once or twice. I'll chuckle to myself, as always, knowing the true immense value of those ratings is late season and particularly the bowl games. Everything tends to drift back to the beginning.

Are you talking to yourself or responding to me?

Wisky is not a championship level defense, period.
You were specific in mentioning their ypa to the teams in the playoff.

With all your betting analysis, the game, spread-wise, was not decided till late in the 4th.
It was not an easy cover.

Your picking Wisconsin was based on their defense.
Well, You were wrong.

And for your comment on the preseason polls, answer me this:
Why do 40% of the teams in pre-season polls, year in-year-out, fail to end the season ranked in the polls?

 

[Awsi Dooger]

As always, the adjusters are every bit as hilarious as desperate.

Here is the inconvenient truth. The Canes entered last night's game with a YPPA Differential of +1.2, via 7.4 YPA on offense and 6.2 YPA on defense. That's a nice solid team but it doesn't begin to threaten something like Oklahoma at +4.5. The Sooners own an all time freakish 12.0 YPA offense, which is unheard of other than an option team with a handful of attempts per game. That +4.5 gives Oklahoma a chance to overcome the horrendous defense, but to do so they'll have to overcome other YPPA Differential standouts like Alabama at +3.2 and Georgia at +3.5. I would be very surprised if Clemson and its +1.5 is able to defeat Alabama again. IMO, Deshaun Watson singlehandedly made those two programs appear much closer than they really are.

Naturally the mainstream media ignores a category like that. Those guys are too busy with conventional wisdom. The adjusters are frantic to take any number and twist it to anything they want it to me. Who cares? I'll keep applying the dependably logical variables with confidence I'll come out ahead significantly more often than not.

I was scared of Ohio State in 2002 for this exact reason. All season I was desperate for them to lose just one game, so the Canes could avoid that nightmare matchup. Miami led the nation in YPPA Differential but Ohio State was right there in second, and with a terrific number. I think it was +3.5 or thereabouts, from memory. The subjective goofs were dismissing Ohio State all season, which was supreme idiocy.

Wisconsin this season was +2.5 YPPA Differential, courtesy of an 8.3 offense and 5.8 defense.

 

[otto105]

I’m going to put this in terms most posters here can relate too.


You’re Wisconsin’s biitch until you win a game against us.

 

[Ammok]

You’re Wisconsin’s biitch until you win a game against us.

True, but you referees look like little cvnts in your black and white striped shirts