Wisconsin favored by 7

[canezhonkey]

Wisconsin is almost the same exact team as Notre Dame except Wisconsin has a worse QB and not as much talent at WR or TE. They want to run the ball and play the bully. We proved that that won't work at Joe Robbie Stadium.

This is almost completely wrong. ND has one of the worst passing offenses in the nation, (117th in Comp %, 104th in YPG, 103rd in pass eff, 50th in YPC), while UW isn't exactly explosive they are significantly better at throwing the ball than ND (31st, 95th, 29th, 31st). UW is down its top 2 WRs but as another poster pointed out our TE was a Mackey Award finalist and future NFL starter. UW also plays much, much better D than Notre Dame (UW is in the top 10 of basically every D category, while ND is around 50th).

Both teams do have the bully ball mentality though. UW just does it much, much better.

The offensive styles are also very different, as ND runs primarily a shotgun spread with the read option while UW is an I form, power run team that never runs the option.

Wimbush has fewer yards (1818-2386) fewer TDs (16-21) a worse completion % (49.8-61.6) fewer yards per attempt (6.81-8.4) and has taken more sacks (25-20) despite only throwing 17 fewer passes than Hornibrook (267-284).

You still have a day to go watch some film on UW, because it is clear you have no idea who we are and what we do if you think ND is walking into Hard Rock tomorrow night. UW is basically Pitt but with NFL talent instead of a bunch of try hards.

why do fans of other teams always flood our board before games? I've never visited a uw site in my life... js
btw how's the weather up there?

 

[3rd-43]

Wisconsin is almost the same exact team as Notre Dame except Wisconsin has a worse QB and not as much talent at WR or TE. They want to run the ball and play the bully. We proved that that won't work at Joe Robbie Stadium.

This is almost completely wrong. ND has one of the worst passing offenses in the nation, (117th in Comp %, 104th in YPG, 103rd in pass eff, 50th in YPC), while UW isn't exactly explosive they are significantly better at throwing the ball than ND (31st, 95th, 29th, 31st). UW is down its top 2 WRs but as another poster pointed out our TE was a Mackey Award finalist and future NFL starter. UW also plays much, much better D than Notre Dame (UW is in the top 10 of basically every D category, while ND is around 50th).

Both teams do have the bully ball mentality though. UW just does it much, much better.

The offensive styles are also very different, as ND runs primarily a shotgun spread with the read option while UW is an I form, power run team that never runs the option.

Wimbush has fewer yards (1818-2386) fewer TDs (16-21) a worse completion % (49.8-61.6) fewer yards per attempt (6.81-8.4) and has taken more sacks (25-20) despite only throwing 17 fewer passes than Hornibrook (267-284).

You still have a day to go watch some film on UW, because it is clear you have no idea who we are and what we do if you think ND is walking into Hard Rock tomorrow night. UW is basically Pitt but with NFL talent instead of a bunch of try hards.

theres no point in the Canes showing up then.

We gonna beat that cheese poosy up, kick rox

 

[scrantoncane]

There has been some great line movement in our favor. The spread dropped from a true opening line of Wisky -6.5 to Wisky -4.5 with no zigzagging. Not surprisingly, the moneyline dropped as well, from Wisky -250 at Pinnacle to now just -190.

Usually there'd still be some cause for concern with the game not until tomorrow night, but bowl games are not typical insofar as the spread has been out since way back on December 4th so what you see is pretty much what you get by now when it comes to movement.

We will win this game.

Strange to see the line move when it did. Looks like it went to -6 at a few books on the 25th, then to -4.5 everywhere on the 27th. This was after it sat still for 2-3 weeks at the opening line of -6.5.

If I was going to bet Miami, I would've waited it out until it hit -7, even if that meant waiting until game day. Whats the difference really if it goes from -6.5 to -6? I'd rather gamble that it'd move up to -7 so I can hit that sweet number.

Do you think this was one big bet on Miami that moved the line that much? Hard to imagine heavy counter action on the 25-27th, a week before the game - at least not enough to move it that much, 2 full points.

The flip side is if you liked Wisconsin, you probably would've already bet it at -6.5 before it climbed to -7, yet we never saw it hit -7. This likely would've been early money, but it never came.

It'll be interesting to see where it goes tomorrow. Obviously if it shoots back up, say a full point or more, it is bad news. If it stays where it is, within a half point, I like the UM bet and I like our chances.

 

[StoneWallLoungeCane]

Wisconsin is almost the same exact team as Notre Dame except Wisconsin has a worse QB and not as much talent at WR or TE. They want to run the ball and play the bully. We proved that that won't work at Joe Robbie Stadium.

This is almost completely wrong. ND has one of the worst passing offenses in the nation, (117th in Comp %, 104th in YPG, 103rd in pass eff, 50th in YPC), while UW isn't exactly explosive they are significantly better at throwing the ball than ND (31st, 95th, 29th, 31st). UW is down its top 2 WRs but as another poster pointed out our TE was a Mackey Award finalist and future NFL starter. UW also plays much, much better D than Notre Dame (UW is in the top 10 of basically every D category, while ND is around 50th).

Both teams do have the bully ball mentality though. UW just does it much, much better.

The offensive styles are also very different, as ND runs primarily a shotgun spread with the read option while UW is an I form, power run team that never runs the option.

Wimbush has fewer yards (1818-2386) fewer TDs (16-21) a worse completion % (49.8-61.6) fewer yards per attempt (6.81-8.4) and has taken more sacks (25-20) despite only throwing 17 fewer passes than Hornibrook (267-284).

You still have a day to go watch some film on UW, because it is clear you have no idea who we are and what we do if you think ND is walking into Hard Rock tomorrow night. UW is basically Pitt but with NFL talent instead of a bunch of try hards.

Hahahahaahahahahaha

 

[NJshoreCane]

I don't have any feel for this one. Hadn't even thought about this matchup.

I do know that Wisconsin travels very well. When I lived in Las Vegas they played at UNLV several times and you'd always see thousands of Badger fans in town walking the Strip and everywhere else.

Not an easy test for our challenged passing game. Wisconsin is 3rd nationally in yards per pass attempt allowed at 5.7.

Not exactly a shock that 3 of the 4 playoff teams are within the top 4 in that category: Alabama is first at 5.5, Georgia second at 5.6, and Clemson tied for 4th at 5.8.

cfbstats.com - 2017 National Team Leaders

Oklahoma winning the championship would be the all time statistical outlier because the Sooners allow a laughable 7.5 YPA. I have never seen a number like that successful in the postseason. Highest I remember was Auburn in 2010 overcoming a 7.0 pass defense with Cam Newton. Mayfield has an even greater challenge. Nobody in the Big 12 allowed less than 7.1 YPA this season. It is similar in that regard to 2008 and all the fraud Big 12 teams. Oklahoma will often be a bit shell shocked at plays that unfolded comfortably in their conference but will be spit out here.

Deceiving.
The Big 10 is the worst passing conference in America.
10 of Wisky's 13 opponents ranked 81st or worse in yards per attempt. Four of those opponents ranked above 110th.
Nebraska sits at 62nd.
OSU is at 19 and FAU is 24th.

 

[StoneWallLoungeCane]

An I form power run team with a QB who turns the ball over coming into the rock for a night game

Hahaha

 

[The Franchise]

An I form power run team with a QB who turns the ball over coming into the rock for a night game

Hahaha

Exactly. Should be a return to ambush season.

Manny needs to trust his athletes and not sit back and let Hornyfacquit get confident and in a rhythm. Empty the guns. Get in the receivers’ grills and play on their side of the LOS.

 

[g8rh8rMD]

Wisconsin is almost the same exact team as Notre Dame except Wisconsin has a worse QB and not as much talent at WR or TE. They want to run the ball and play the bully. We proved that that won't work at Joe Robbie Stadium.

This is almost completely wrong. ND has one of the worst passing offenses in the nation, (117th in Comp %, 104th in YPG, 103rd in pass eff, 50th in YPC), while UW isn't exactly explosive they are significantly better at throwing the ball than ND (31st, 95th, 29th, 31st). UW is down its top 2 WRs but as another poster pointed out our TE was a Mackey Award finalist and future NFL starter. UW also plays much, much better D than Notre Dame (UW is in the top 10 of basically every D category, while ND is around 50th).

Both teams do have the bully ball mentality though. UW just does it much, much better.

The offensive styles are also very different, as ND runs primarily a shotgun spread with the read option while UW is an I form, power run team that never runs the option.

Wimbush has fewer yards (1818-2386) fewer TDs (16-21) a worse completion % (49.8-61.6) fewer yards per attempt (6.81-8.4) and has taken more sacks (25-20) despite only throwing 17 fewer passes than Hornibrook (267-284).

You still have a day to go watch some film on UW, because it is clear you have no idea who we are and what we do if you think ND is walking into Hard Rock tomorrow night. UW is basically Pitt but with NFL talent instead of a bunch of try hards.

The only problem with your comparisons is that ND played an actual schedule while Wisconsin was playing high school girls badminton teams all season. Kinda hard to take much from the numbers based on the level of competition. I bet ND would be top ten in every defensive category too if they played a schedule full of high school jv teams from Manitoba.

 

[g8rh8rMD]

There has been some great line movement in our favor. The spread dropped from a true opening line of Wisky -6.5 to Wisky -4.5 with no zigzagging. Not surprisingly, the moneyline dropped as well, from Wisky -250 at Pinnacle to now just -190.

Usually there'd still be some cause for concern with the game not until tomorrow night, but bowl games are not typical insofar as the spread has been out since way back on December 4th so what you see is pretty much what you get by now when it comes to movement.

We will win this game.

Great news. This is going to be fun! Where’s the dang we roll thread?

 

[gacaneaddict]

Big 10 final score was a mirage.

Ohio state threw a pick 6, fumbles at their own 10, threw another pick on own side of 50.
Also on whisky scoring drive late hit on q.b kept drive along.


Ohio state dominated that game.

 

[scrantoncane]

I can't remember where I heard it (Gameday?), but several weeks ago it was stated that Vegas oddsmakers would make Wisconsin a one point favorite over Miami on a neutral field.

My, how perceptions have changed. The Orange Bowl is hardly neutral and we're now catching 7 points. I'm also happy we're not facing Bama. Wisky gives us a shot.

I listen to a few gambling podcasts. Can't remember which podcast, but one of the line makers was talking about the look ahead lines and public perception. The Rams were something like 4 point favorites over the Titans on the look ahead line about 10 days out. Then they beat the snot out of the Seahawks. The line moved all the way to -7, and the Rams ended up winning by 4 so a Titans cover.

The guy was saying how, this late in the year, nothing should be moving games more than 1.5 points unless it is an injury to a key player., so this game moving 3 full points was wrong, and Tenn was the play. That was the NFL so naturally the standards/number will differ, but the same holds true for this Canes game, IMO. I saw the same thing as you, Wisc -1 on neutral field. Then we get stomped by Clemson and Wisc plays Ohio St tough, and the line moves to -7. No way.

I hammered Tenn against Rams and got a winner, and I think I am gonna hammer the Canes here, unless that line moves back up.

 

[jw410]

I don't have any feel for this one. Hadn't even thought about this matchup.

I do know that Wisconsin travels very well. When I lived in Las Vegas they played at UNLV several times and you'd always see thousands of Badger fans in town walking the Strip and everywhere else.

Not an easy test for our challenged passing game. Wisconsin is 3rd nationally in yards per pass attempt allowed at 5.7.

Not exactly a shock that 3 of the 4 playoff teams are within the top 4 in that category: Alabama is first at 5.5, Georgia second at 5.6, and Clemson tied for 4th at 5.8.

cfbstats.com - 2017 National Team Leaders

Oklahoma winning the championship would be the all time statistical outlier because the Sooners allow a laughable 7.5 YPA. I have never seen a number like that successful in the postseason. Highest I remember was Auburn in 2010 overcoming a 7.0 pass defense with Cam Newton. Mayfield has an even greater challenge. Nobody in the Big 12 allowed less than 7.1 YPA this season. It is similar in that regard to 2008 and all the fraud Big 12 teams. Oklahoma will often be a bit shell shocked at plays that unfolded comfortably in their conference but will be spit out here.

Deceiving.
The Big 10 is the worst passing conference in America.
10 of Wisky's 13 opponents ranked 81st or worse in yards per attempt. Four of those opponents ranked above 110th.
Nebraska sits at 62nd.
OSU is at 19 and FAU is 24th.

So they didn't face any decent passing teams. If we force them to be one dimensional. we win by 14. They gonna force the pass and have back up wrs in the game.

 

[TrueFloridian]

The line is down to -4. It’ll be less than a FG by game time. Go ahead and take the money line now.

 

[Poptimus]

There has been some great line movement in our favor. The spread dropped from a true opening line of Wisky -6.5 to Wisky -4.5 with no zigzagging. Not surprisingly, the moneyline dropped as well, from Wisky -250 at Pinnacle to now just -190.

Usually there'd still be some cause for concern with the game not until tomorrow night, but bowl games are not typical insofar as the spread has been out since way back on December 4th so what you see is pretty much what you get by now when it comes to movement.

We will win this game.

Strange to see the line move when it did. Looks like it went to -6 at a few books on the 25th, then to -4.5 everywhere on the 27th. This was after it sat still for 2-3 weeks at the opening line of -6.5.

If I was going to bet Miami, I would've waited it out until it hit -7, even if that meant waiting until game day. Whats the difference really if it goes from -6.5 to -6? I'd rather gamble that it'd move up to -7 so I can hit that sweet number.

Do you think this was one big bet on Miami that moved the line that much? Hard to imagine heavy counter action on the 25-27th, a week before the game - at least not enough to move it that much, 2 full points.

The flip side is if you liked Wisconsin, you probably would've already bet it at -6.5 before it climbed to -7, yet we never saw it hit -7. This likely would've been early money, but it never came.

It'll be interesting to see where it goes tomorrow. Obviously if it shoots back up, say a full point or more, it is bad news. If it stays where it is, within a half point, I like the UM bet and I like our chances.

It was sitting at -6.5 with equal juice on both sides on December 27th and then jumped 1.5 points in four minutes at Pinnacle. It then moved half a point three hours later so I think it was some syndicate probably bet Miami large at first and possibly another syndicate or some lone sharp hammered them again upon seeing the move once it got to +5.

It is somewhat surprising there was no head fake, and what I mean by that is there could have been some line manipulation early on by the guys that bet Miami. They could have bet Wisconsin -6.5 large to hopefully move it to -7 and then circle back with 5x or so on the opposite side, getting Miami at a better price. I don't expect it to move back up because -4.5 is an odd gambling number. If you lay 4.5, you might as well lay 5.5 because Wisconsin isn't winning by exactly 5. If it drops to -4 then I definitely expect to see someone bet Wisconsin enough to either bump it half a point or raise the juice on Wisky. We'll see, but I'm feeling really good about tomorrow's game.

 

[prinmemo]

Wisconsin is almost the same exact team as Notre Dame except Wisconsin has a worse QB and not as much talent at WR or TE. They want to run the ball and play the bully. We proved that that won't work at Joe Robbie Stadium.

This is almost completely wrong. ND has one of the worst passing offenses in the nation, (117th in Comp %, 104th in YPG, 103rd in pass eff, 50th in YPC), while UW isn't exactly explosive they are significantly better at throwing the ball than ND (31st, 95th, 29th, 31st). UW is down its top 2 WRs but as another poster pointed out our TE was a Mackey Award finalist and future NFL starter. UW also plays much, much better D than Notre Dame (UW is in the top 10 of basically every D category, while ND is around 50th).

Both teams do have the bully ball mentality though. UW just does it much, much better.

The offensive styles are also very different, as ND runs primarily a shotgun spread with the read option while UW is an I form, power run team that never runs the option.

Wimbush has fewer yards (1818-2386) fewer TDs (16-21) a worse completion % (49.8-61.6) fewer yards per attempt (6.81-8.4) and has taken more sacks (25-20) despite only throwing 17 fewer passes than Hornibrook (267-284).

You still have a day to go watch some film on UW, because it is clear you have no idea who we are and what we do if you think ND is walking into Hard Rock tomorrow night. UW is basically Pitt but with NFL talent instead of a bunch of try hards.

why do fans of other teams always flood our board before games? I've never visited a uw site in my life... js
btw how's the weather up there?

I never understood this, either. I never go on the sites of other teams. It is a waste of time, IMO.

 

[NJshoreCane]

Wisconsin is almost the same exact team as Notre Dame except Wisconsin has a worse QB and not as much talent at WR or TE. They want to run the ball and play the bully. We proved that that won't work at Joe Robbie Stadium.

This is almost completely wrong. ND has one of the worst passing offenses in the nation, (117th in Comp %, 104th in YPG, 103rd in pass eff, 50th in YPC), while UW isn't exactly explosive they are significantly better at throwing the ball than ND (31st, 95th, 29th, 31st). UW is down its top 2 WRs but as another poster pointed out our TE was a Mackey Award finalist and future NFL starter. UW also plays much, much better D than Notre Dame (UW is in the top 10 of basically every D category, while ND is around 50th).

Both teams do have the bully ball mentality though. UW just does it much, much better.

The offensive styles are also very different, as ND runs primarily a shotgun spread with the read option while UW is an I form, power run team that never runs the option.

Wimbush has fewer yards (1818-2386) fewer TDs (16-21) a worse completion % (49.8-61.6) fewer yards per attempt (6.81-8.4) and has taken more sacks (25-20) despite only throwing 17 fewer passes than Hornibrook (267-284).

You still have a day to go watch some film on UW, because it is clear you have no idea who we are and what we do if you think ND is walking into Hard Rock tomorrow night. UW is basically Pitt but with NFL talent instead of a bunch of try hards.

Not exactly going to win anyone over by comparing your team to Pitt, in any way, NFL talent or not.
Pitt is nothing to us.

 

[BiltmoreCANE]

Wisconsin is almost the same exact team as Notre Dame except Wisconsin has a worse QB and not as much talent at WR or TE. They want to run the ball and play the bully. We proved that that won't work at Joe Robbie Stadium.

This is almost completely wrong. ND has one of the worst passing offenses in the nation, (117th in Comp %, 104th in YPG, 103rd in pass eff, 50th in YPC), while UW isn't exactly explosive they are significantly better at throwing the ball than ND (31st, 95th, 29th, 31st). UW is down its top 2 WRs but as another poster pointed out our TE was a Mackey Award finalist and future NFL starter. UW also plays much, much better D than Notre Dame (UW is in the top 10 of basically every D category, while ND is around 50th).

Both teams do have the bully ball mentality though. UW just does it much, much better.

The offensive styles are also very different, as ND runs primarily a shotgun spread with the read option while UW is an I form, power run team that never runs the option.

Wimbush has fewer yards (1818-2386) fewer TDs (16-21) a worse completion % (49.8-61.6) fewer yards per attempt (6.81-8.4) and has taken more sacks (25-20) despite only throwing 17 fewer passes than Hornibrook (267-284).

You still have a day to go watch some film on UW, because it is clear you have no idea who we are and what we do if you think ND is walking into Hard Rock tomorrow night. UW is basically Pitt but with NFL talent instead of a bunch of try hards.

LOL!!! Look I have no clue who will win tommorrow night. Your team may not be irishesque but, you sound just like the irish clown who was on this site before that game. Basicially saying we know nothing, this and that wont win the game, & this is the only way we can beat you while you're chuckling and thinking to yourself.....ya that ain't gonna happen. Well guess what after 3 picks and a 27-0 halftime beating he was wrong and never to be heard of again! So quit posting sublime absolutes because the bottom line is just like me you have no idea what's going to happen tommorrow night either.

 

[mackjones]

The line is down to -4. It’ll be less than a FG by game time. Go ahead and take the money line now.

I expect the point spread to be... - 3 1/2 by Saturday night. Maybe... - 4. hUh Too bad U gambling degenerates didn't take Miami at " + 7 ! "

 

[mackjones]

Why would I not get it? I watch football from every corner of the country and have done so for 30 years now. Speed can be a decisive advantage when there is a large talent discrepancy and one team just cant compete but in modern football every good team has speed. Wisconsin has NFL talent all over the field. You aren't going to overwhelm the Badgers with athletes. Your 25 4 stars are cute, OSU has 63. Yet it was a 6 point game and the Badgers had two chances to win it in the last 5 mins as OSUs speed was unable to do much of anything in the 2nd half. Maryland has more 4 stars than Wisconsin, stars don't mean squat once a kid is in the program for a couple months.

The point isn't to say that UW will win for sure over Miami, I expect a hard fought match-up between too really good and motivated teams. I could definitely see the Canes winning this one. If they do it will be because they won the LOS and limited UW's run game while fending off our aggressive front 7. The speed factor, or rather UW's lack of it, is just lazy, stereotypical drivel. I could go pull up the threads from the last time we played and it would be nearly identical. "Wisconsin has never seen speed like 'insert your Southern/Western team here' possesses and we will blow them out. Badgers = slow, fat and boring."

Meanwhile, in real life, UW has 30 players in the NFL including multiple All-Pros, has about 15 NFL guys getting PT on this team and has lost 2 games since 2010 by more than 7 points (both to National Champions, OSU in '14 Bama in '15) and has the 4th most wins of any program during that stretch. We have played teams renowned for their speed such as Oregon, USC, LSU, and Auburn yet none of them ran us off the field or even seemed to have much of an edge at all in raw athleticism.

In 09, UW took it to your very own Canes, who we were told nonstop would run circles around our slow, simple Midwesterners. The U pt 2 had just come out and you guys were feeling yourselves, your team was woofing it up before the game and after every play. Then you got punched in the mouth and told 'be humble' by these same slow, simple Midwesterners. I don't think Harris ever recovered from the epic beating we laid on him that night.

Every game that UW has lost during that time was due to the other team winning the LOS. Speed obviously helps, every team needs guys that can make something out of nothing. The mistake is to think that Miami is the only team in the Orange Bowl that has those guys. The U may very well have the edge in certain match-ups, and speed may be one of the reasons but it isn't the only reason. This will come down to the battle in the trenches. UW is going to try to lean on your Dline so that the cracks become holes in the 4th qtr. OSU was able to prevent this because they have a 12 person rotation on their Dline (nearly all of whom are 4 or 5 star guys) and were able to stay fresh and aggressive all game. From what I have seen Miami doesn't have that kind of depth, though the starters are every bit as good, and that could be the key to the game right there. UW's pass game doesn't look like much but it is incredibly efficient and if Hornibrook is given time he can carve up a D with the PA. Obviously turnovers will be key and that could be a big edge for the U as the UW O is much more prone to them, though the Badgers also force a ton on D. It should be a fun, hard hitting game, good luck Canes.

Why are your women so fat?

The same reason your wife, or girlfriend is FAT!!!!!!!!!!!

 

[StoneWallLoungeCane]

An I form power run team with a QB who turns the ball over coming into the rock for a night game

Hahaha

Exactly. Should be a return to ambush season.

Manny needs to trust his athletes and not sit back and let Hornyfacquit get confident and in a rhythm. Empty the guns. Get in the receivers’ grills and play on their side of the LOS.

Canes waiting outside the back door with brass knuckles again.