My $.02:
7 or less: tweets of feet, coaches visiting recruits who are visiting other schools, and open season on our top commits. Prayers and santeria for a class barely in the top 20.
8-9 wins: we maintain and finish top 11-15ish.
10+ wins: chance to pull/flip a handful of kids late and get into the top 6-10.
Assuming the money is right for c/o 2025 kids and transfers, 8 or 9 wins should be enough for Mario to sell an upward trajectory for those players, though.