forums

Why the polls are a joke

Advertisement
PennsylvaniaCane said:
Didn’t realize I wasn’t allowed to mock the polls that have a team ranked above us that is probably going to get blown out on Saturday to the point Vegas has them as a 3 TD underdog.
Click to expand...
😂 just f’n with you man.. tbh I dont really mind. You raised valid points,
 
NCCanefan said:
That is partially correct.
Click to expand...
It's not partially correct. It's entirely correct. Vegas only cares about making money. Unless they're in on a fix, they want even money bet on both sides. Then they're guaranteed a profit.
NCCanefan said:
And the correlation between game results and the vegas lines is quite high. If you thought there was some huge gap between reality and the vegas line you'd jump on it.
Click to expand...
The correlation is only to set the opening line. It's pretty much a SWAG, a guess at where the betting money will go. Then they'll adjust if an imbalance occurs.
NCCanefan said:
The poster's point is that polls, especially early polls are nonsense. Colrado beat a ranked TCU team. The TCU team is pretty lousy and Colorado jumped from beating them. Colorado will get clobbered this week so we can hopefully hear less from and about Sanders and Colorado
Click to expand...
I agree the polls are nonsense. The betting public is not buying it either.
 
PennsylvaniaCane said:
My point is that the line is at 3 TDs for 2 teams that are separated by 8-9 spots in the polls. Either the polls are way off or Vegas is. I say it’s the polls.

If we were out in Eugene this week would we be a 3 TD underdog?
Click to expand...

If you want to have the rankings based on Vegas lines, you're not a serious college football fan. Georgia could lose to Auburn next week and they would still be favored against Auburn if they played again.
 
NorthEastCane said:
It's not partially correct. It's entirely correct. Vegas only cares about making money. Unless they're in on a fix, they want even money bet on both sides. Then they're guaranteed a profit.

The correlation is only to set the opening line. It's pretty much a SWAG, a guess at where the betting money will go. Then they'll adjust if an imbalance occurs.
Click to expand...

This is so far from the truth. Vegas lines aren't based on a "guess". They are one thousand percent based on power ratings. Then they might nudge it a point or two in a certain direction based on home field or a key injury. But it is certainly based on math.

They have more data than we do and they absolutely use it. They aren't trying to get "even money", either. They are simply trying to avoid posting a bad line that gets obliterated by sharps in the first hour of betting.
 
PennsylvaniaCane said:
Didn’t realize I wasn’t allowed to mock the polls that have a team ranked above us that is probably going to get blown out on Saturday to the point Vegas has them as a 3 TD underdog.
Click to expand...
Well, then maybe you can help the cats over on the weather post, there seems to be some discrepancies' between weather in Philly and Pittsburg for the game.
 
Advertisement
PennsylvaniaCane said:
My point is that the line is at 3 TDs for 2 teams that are separated by 8-9 spots in the polls. Either the polls are way off or Vegas is. I say it’s the polls.

If we were out in Eugene this week would we be a 3 TD underdog?
Click to expand...
We would not be. We should probably be ranked ahead of CO. But I think that's more about us. Rankings tend to be about resume more than potential at this point,

unranked Clemson is also a 2 point underdog to the number 4 team in the country this weekend. Clemson is still probably considered the 8th or 9th best team in the country, but no one thinks they should be ranked there after their clunker against duke.
 
Who cares? These things tend to iron themselves out as the season goes along. Never understood why people get wrapped up in this 3 games In.
 
WanderFranco said:
This is so far from the truth. Vegas lines aren't based on a "guess". They are one thousand percent based on power ratings. Then they might nudge it a point or two in a certain direction based on home field or a key injury. But it is certainly based on math.

They have more data than we do and they absolutely use it. They aren't trying to get "even money", either. They are simply trying to avoid posting a bad line that gets obliterated by sharps in the first hour of betting.
Click to expand...
Do you think they're street bookies throwing darts at a board? Of course not. They're professionals. They have a lot of money on the line, so they do an analysis including assessing the "power ratings", determining their confidence in the numbers, then making a projection or best guess, where they believe even money will fall.

After all that analysis, the end result is essentially a SWAG.
 
Since I’m here , I guess I’ll chime in. If Colorado was to pull an upset the next two weeks it’ll be against Oregon. I personally don’t think Oregon is that good, but we’ll see
 
NorthEastCane said:
Do you think they're street bookies throwing darts at a board? Of course not. They're professionals. They have a lot of money on the line, so they do an analysis including assessing the "power ratings", determining their confidence in the numbers, then making a projection or best guess, where they believe even money will fall.

After all that analysis, the end result is essentially a SWAG.
Click to expand...
Uh, what?

I’m the one who told YOU that they aren’t throwing darts at a board. Did you literally just take my post and make it yours?
 
Advertisement
DunedinCANE said:
Vegas also had TCU as a 21 point favorite... how'd that work out?
Click to expand...
Gotta be careful with those week 1 betting lines. It’s a lot harder to set a point spread when nobody’s played a game yet.
 
NCCanefan said:
That is partially correct. And the correlation between game results and the vegas lines is quite high. If you thought there was some huge gap between reality and the vegas line you'd jump on it.

The poster's point is that polls, especially early polls are nonsense. Colrado beat a ranked TCU team. The TCU team is pretty lousy and Colorado jumped from beating them. Colorado will get clobbered this week so we can hopefully hear less from and about Sanders and Colorado
Click to expand...
Can't happen soon enough.
 
Back
Top