Why stars DO matter.

[Miami Nights]

What it all comes down to is a coaches ability to evaluate and project a kids ability down the line. **** Coker had a bunch of highly rated classes and guys but a lot of them ended up being garbage. (Reggie Youngblood, lovon ponder, Ian symmonette, Andrew Johnson etc.) He certainly wasn't the talent evaluator butch Davis was.

Good/great coaches are good/great at most every aspect of coaching with being able to recruit and bring players in a big part of it. Good/great coaches can game plan, utilize players, make mid stream adjustments etc. while bringing in the prayers needed to get the job done.

 

[Miami Nights]

In case this is news to anybody. I always hear that "stars don't matter" but the facts don't bear that out. Recruiting is like gambling. It's all about stacking the odds in your favor. You might strike gold on a 3* recruit, but more often than not the 4/5* kid is going to be better. And in the end, it's all about the odds.


Here are the facts:


A five star recruit has a 74% chance of getting drafted to the NFL (2017 draft: 23 picked out of 31 total)
A four star recruit has a 21% chance of getting drafted to the NFL (2017 draft: 76 picked out of 354 total)
A three star recruit has a 7% chance of getting drafted to the NFL (2017 draft: 90 picked out of 1202 total)

And it goes without saying... having a roster stacked with future NFL talent means you're likely to win some games.



Also, we can look at the number of blue chip player on every team's roster, and see that it matches up very well with the team's success:

Number of blue chips currently on the roster:

1.) Alabama (***** 18, **** 51)
2.) Ohio State (***** 7, **** 56)
3.) USC (***** 8, **** 41)
4.) Georgia (***** 11, **** 43)
5.) FSU (***** 10, **** 38)
6.) LSU (***** 4, **** 48)
7.) Michigan (***** 3, **** 46)
8.) Auburn (***** 4, **** 41)
9.) Clemson (***** 6, **** 34)
10.) Notre Dam (***** 0, **** 46)

compare that to...


Current College Football Rankings

1. Clemson
2. Oklahoma
3. Georgia
4. Alabama
5. Ohio State
6. Wisconsin
7. Auburn
8. USC
9. Penn State
10. UCF

Obviously there's no coincidence there. Out of 120 Division 1 teams, you see the same names on that top 10 list for a reason. Talent = winning.

(BTW, Miami is #20 in talent with ***** 1 and **** 24, and we are #11 in the rankings)


So my point is that recruiting highly ranked guys is like stacking the deck in your favor. It's like playing with house odds. Sure, you might lose a hand here or there, but in the long run the odds always win out.

Stars DO matter. And we shouldn't fool ourselves in to believing otherwise.

Stop pulling up NFL player stats

It's about who is winning national championships in the NCAA

The NFL game is different then college

Sorry to inform you but if you wanna win national title you better have some mfl talent on the roster plain and simple. Can you name all the the schools that have won a national title with zero NFL talent?

 

[Miami Nights]

Stars are irrelevant to miami. Stars and star whores have NEVER been relevant. Our national championships have NEVER been won by star whoring 4-5 star primadonnas.

Mami fans lusting after stars are plain Jane STUPID.

Hate to do this.... but Miami hasn't won a national championship in 16 years. Times are different now.

All during the Golden and Shannon years, we filled up our classes with "underrated" South Florida 3 stars. How many ships did those kids win us? How many ACC championships? How many coastal championships?

Shannon just wasn't that great of an overall HC. He actually had some players on the team... enough talent to win the coastal at least he just wasn't that great of a coach overall.

 

[Miami Nights]

South Florida 3-stars we have signed since 2012...

JaWand Blue
Vernon Davis
Larry Hope
Gabriel Terry
Josh Witt
David Thompson
Walter Tucker
Mike Smith
Ryan Mayes
Trayone Gray
Tyre Brady
Marques Gayot
Nick Linder
Terry McCray
James King
Terrance Henley
Sheldrick Redwine
Robert Knowles
RJ McIntosh
Darrell Langham
Demetrius Jackson


TO EVERYONE WHO SAYS... "SOUTH FLORIDA 3 STARS ARE BETTER THAN EVERYONE ELSE'S 5 STARS."

How can you say that when you see this list? Looks like a couple studs and a whole lot of scrubs to me.

A 3-star is a 3-star, if you ask me.

Yea I laugh at the south Florida talk. Not every 3 star from south fl would be rated higher anywhere else. Most of the guys on your list suck but that doesn't means other 3 stars can go on to have success. The good/great coaches can find those types.

 

[Coach Macho]

There's 3-star kids that have 4/5 star talent but there may be various reasons why they're ranked lower.
Maybe they're 5'9".
Maybe they're only 160lbs.
Maybe they didn't hit the camp circuit hard.

It's up to the college coach to figure out whether those shortcomings will hurt him on the next level. The CB may be 5'9" but does he play bigger? Does he have elite feet and elite jumping ability to close the size difference against bigger WR's?

You don't have to ask those questions with 4/5 star kids. Usually the higher ranked kids are physically superior. And trust me when I tell you, having 4/5 stars does NOT automatically mean you can PLAY FOOTBALL better than a 3-star kid, it just means you have more potential due to physical attributes.

I've seen players who have had amazing high school careers, far better than any 5-star, yet they're only given 3-stars cause they're undersized. Meanwhile the 5-star has a mediocre career but is highly ranked due to his superior physical attributes. This is based on PROJECTION.
Scouts know just because a kid was able to ball out in high school does not mean he projects well on the next level. He may be too slow or too small to excel in major college football.

And trust me when I tell you, those lack of physical attributes do eventually show up when the player gets on the college field. It's a different ball game. As a college coach/recruiter, you want to limit the possibility of that happening.
The best DB I've ever coached/seen in high school was only 5'9"-5'10" 165lbs on a good day. He was absolutely glue in high school. Finished his high school career with nearly 30 interceptions, was All State and won Broward Defensive Player of the Year. (was still just a 3-star player)
Gets to college where the WR's are 6'2"+ and it's a different ball game. The lack of size (specifically length) shows up against big college WR's and QB's who know where to throw the ball.

This is why you can't fill your roster with 3-stars. You can't have a defensive backfield full of 5'9" CB's no matter how scrappy they are.
You can't have a WR corp full of 5'10" kids.
You can't have a Linebacker unit full of 5'11" player no matter how hard they hit.
You can't have a DE unit full of 6'2" kids just cause they're twitchy.
And you can't have guys who are slow at any of these spots.

At some point the physical shortcomings of most 3-stars will show up. Although they're not always the better players, higher ranked kids don't have those physical shortcomings and college coaches think they can take their athleticism and coach it up.

There's always exceptions obviously. For example, I think OL/DL are probably a little harder to evaluate. McIntosh probably should've been a 3-star. I'm assuming he didn't get much exposure via the camp circuit. I don't ever recall seeing him at camps. The 2 kids who we coached who are now in the NFL were both 3-stars but had 4/5 star physical attributes. They never hit the camp circuit though and also played at an unheralded high school. (lack of exposure) At the end of the day, their offer lists spoke louder than their stars.
I think that's something we tend to overlook and IMO it's more reliable than stars.

 

[datdude81]

In case this is news to anybody. I always hear that "stars don't matter" but the facts don't bear that out. Recruiting is like gambling. It's all about stacking the odds in your favor. You might strike gold on a 3* recruit, but more often than not the 4/5* kid is going to be better. And in the end, it's all about the odds.


Here are the facts:


A five star recruit has a 74% chance of getting drafted to the NFL (2017 draft: 23 picked out of 31 total)
A four star recruit has a 21% chance of getting drafted to the NFL (2017 draft: 76 picked out of 354 total)
A three star recruit has a 7% chance of getting drafted to the NFL (2017 draft: 90 picked out of 1202 total)

And it goes without saying... having a roster stacked with future NFL talent means you're likely to win some games.



Also, we can look at the number of blue chip player on every team's roster, and see that it matches up very well with the team's success:

Number of blue chips currently on the roster:

1.) Alabama (***** 18, **** 51)
2.) Ohio State (***** 7, **** 56)
3.) USC (***** 8, **** 41)
4.) Georgia (***** 11, **** 43)
5.) FSU (***** 10, **** 38)
6.) LSU (***** 4, **** 48)
7.) Michigan (***** 3, **** 46)
8.) Auburn (***** 4, **** 41)
9.) Clemson (***** 6, **** 34)
10.) Notre Dam (***** 0, **** 46)

compare that to...


Current College Football Rankings

1. Clemson
2. Oklahoma
3. Georgia
4. Alabama
5. Ohio State
6. Wisconsin
7. Auburn
8. USC
9. Penn State
10. UCF

Obviously there's no coincidence there. Out of 120 Division 1 teams, you see the same names on that top 10 list for a reason. Talent = winning.

(BTW, Miami is #20 in talent with ***** 1 and **** 24, and we are #11 in the rankings)


So my point is that recruiting highly ranked guys is like stacking the deck in your favor. It's like playing with house odds. Sure, you might lose a hand here or there, but in the long run the odds always win out.

Stars DO matter. And we shouldn't fool ourselves in to believing otherwise.

Stop pulling up NFL player stats

It's about who is winning national championships in the NCAA

The NFL game is different then college

Sorry to inform you but if you wanna win national title you better have some mfl talent on the roster plain and simple. Can you name all the the schools that have won a national title with zero NFL talent?

can you name all the busts that bama has....the more you win and the more you put your guys in a position to be drafted
however it has been proven that a lot of none star athletes are in the league balling

people posts this stat every year

I want to focus on recruiting the best class of athletes and getting our evals right

if a kid balls at the next level I am for him and his continued development...