He did have a down year but his sophomore year was solid. I think if he puts it all together this season he can be a 3rd - 4th rounder. The coaches have said repeatedly that he had the best spring of anyone on the team, so we shall see.
It's a shame the Borregales family didn't try for another so we can continue the legacy lol
I think there's too much optimism about Bell. Anez Cooper has at least performed well over lots of games. Bell looked really stiff last year. He needs to improve an awful lot in just one year to play in the NFL.
Thank youI fully expect Miami to be one of the best offenses in college football this upcoming season, likely finishing in the top 10-15 nationally. Here’s why, backed by data and trends rather than hype.
Offensive Talent;
Total offensive players: 40
Blue chips: 23
Blue chip ratio: 57%
Shannon Dawson’s Proven Offensive Track Record
Dawson has a long history as a high-level offensive coordinator producing efficient, explosive offenses. Here’s a snapshot of his recent teams (excluding 2020 due to shortened season):
Year Team Passing Yds/Game National Passing Rank Rushing Yds/Game Yards/Play Points/Game Starting QB 2018 Southern Miss 317.0 #9 179.0 6.5 35.0 Jack Abraham 2021 Houston 271.4 #23 143.4 6.0 35.9 Clayton Tune 2022 Houston 314.0 #8 141.8 6.6 36.1 Clayton Tune 2023 Miami 258.0 #43 173.2 6.4 31.5 Tyler Van Dyke 2024 Miami 348.2 #3 188.9 7.6 43.9 Cam Ward
Dawson’s average per game (2018–2024):
For context, the NCAA FBS average (2018–2024) is:
- Passing Yards: 295.7
- Rushing Yards: 161.6
- Points: 35.4
That’s a difference of:
- Passing Yards: 210
- Rushing Yards: 140
- Points: 26
Dawson’s offenses consistently outperform the national average by wide margins.
- +85.7 passing yards/game
- +21.6 rushing yards/game
- +9.4 points/game
Quarterback Play: The Key Ingredient:
A major component of Shannon Dawson’s offensive approach is how much trust and responsibility he places on the quarterback. Dawson designs his offense to allow the QB to read the defense and make decisions, whether it’s deciding to throw a quick checkdown, take a shot deep, or hand off to a running back depending on what the defense shows post snap. This level of QB trust requires the quarterback to have good football IQ and feel for the game, making the smart and experienced Carson Beck the perfect QB for this system.
Under Dawson, quarterbacks historically have done well. His QBs have repeatedly produced 3,000+ passing yard season going back to Geno Smith at West Virginia (3,205 passing yards, 42 passing touchdowns, with a 71.2% completion rate) with two QB throwing for over 4,000.
QB’s under Dawson since 2018
Jack Abraham (Southern Miss, 2018)
Clayton Tune (Houston, 2021–2022)
- 2,347 passing yards and 21 passing touchdowns
- Led the nation in completion percentage (73.1%)
Tyler Van Dyke (Miami, 2023)
- 2021: 3,546 passing yards and 29 passing touchdowns
- Birmingham Bowl Offensive MVP
- Multiple AAC Player of the Week honors
- First Team All AAC
- Set AAC single season record for touchdown passes
Cam Ward (Miami, 2024)
- 2,703 passing yards and 6 passing touchdowns
So in 6 seasons as an OC his teams have only dropped out of the top 25 in passing once, the year TVD
- 4,313 passing yards and 38 passing touchdowns
- ACC Player & Offensive Player of the Year
- Davey O’Brien Award winner
- Manning Award winner
- Consensus First-Team All American
- Heisman Trophy finalist
the bed.
Beck transferred in with experience, poise, and elite-level accuracy. From a clean pocket, he completed 70.0% of his passes, which ranks 5th since 2014.
Here’s how that stacks up with the best:
- Joe Burrow (82.3%) – 2019 Nat’l Champion
- Shedeur Sanders (77.0%) – 9-3 season
- Tua Tagovailoa (73.9%) – 2018 Nat’l Champion
- Justin Fields (72.5%) – Playoffs
- Carson Beck (70.0%) – Playoffs
- Jalen Hurts (69.5%) – Playoffs
- Michael Penix Jr. (68.8%) – Nat’l title game
- Drake Maye (68.0%) – 9-3 season
- Brock Purdy (67.7%) – 9-3 season
6 of these 10 QBs made the playoffs, and 3 won national titles. According to this data having Beck throwing from a clean pocket gives Miami. 60% chance at making the playoffs and a 30% chance of getting ring #6. That gives you a real sense of where Beck stands and what he could bring to this offense.
Offensive Line:
In 2025 Miami will have one of the best offensive lines in the nation, aiding in the ability to give Carson the clean pocket he needs. Miami has three future NFL draft picks up front in Markel Bell, Anez Cooper, and Francis Mauigoa. Mauigoa could go top 10 in 2026. This puts Miami in a special group. Since 2019, 7 of the last 12 teams that had three or more offensive linemen drafted ended up in the College Football Playoff. Three won it all:
Having that level of talent on the offensive line gives Miami a 58% shot at making the playoff and 25% chance at 6 rangz. That’s not opinion, that’s what the data shows.
- LSU (2019)
- Alabama (2020)
- Michigan (2023)
Running Game:
Miami features a deep running back rotation fully capable of hitting elite level rushing numbers this season. In 2024 Miami was 292 yards shy of accomplishing this. Given the expectation that Miami will run the ball more this season, I fully expect expect Miami to be 2,750 yards or above this season .
Average College Football Playoff Teams Rushing Stats (2022–2024)
Rushing Yards/Game: 172.5
Total Rushing Yards: 2,748
Rushing Touchdowns: 24.3
Miami Hurricanes 2024 Rushing Stats
Rushing Yards/Game: 188.9
Total Rushing Yards: 2,456
Rushing Touchdowns: 30
Difference: University of Miami 2024 vs. Average College Football Playoff Teams (2022–2024)
- Rushing Yards per Game: +16.4 yards/game
- Total Rushing Yards: –292 yards
- Rushing Touchdowns: +5.7 touchdowns
Miami will feature a three-headed monster in the backfield:
That’s over 2,186 rushing yards and 28 TDs combined. Find a way to get 570 more yards and Miami is cooking.
- CharMar Brown: 1,181 yards, 15 TDs
- Mark Fletcher: 607 yards, 9 TDs
- Jordan Lyle: 400 yards, 4 TDs
Pass Catchers:
In Shawn Dawson system receivers repeatedly put up 1,000 yard seasons. It is safe to say that trend will continue. Here is a breakdown of receiver production at his last 3 stops.
Leading Receivers under Shannon Dawson
Southern Miss (2018)
Houston (2021)
- Quez Watkins
- 1,198 receiving yards, 71 receptions, 16.9 yards per catch, 10 touchdowns
- Conference USA All-Conference selection
- 475 receiving yards, 38 receptions, 12.5 yards per catch, 4 touchdowns
Houston (2022)
- Tank Dell
- 1,329 receiving yards, 90 receptions, 14.8 yards per catch, 12 touchdowns
- First-Team All-American Athletic Conference
- Dave Campbell All-State First Team
- 753 receiving yards, 52 receptions, 14.5 yards per catch, 7 touchdowns
Miami (2023)
- Tank Dell
- 1,398 receiving yards, 109 receptions, 12.8 yards per catch, 17 touchdowns
- Second Team All-America
- First Team All-American Athletic Conference
- Dave Campbell's Texas Football First Team All-Texas
- Biletnikoff Award Semifinalist
- Earl Campbell Tyler Rose Award Semifinalist
- 622 receiving yards, 52 receptions, 12.0 yards per catch, 5 touchdowns
Miami (2024)
- Xavier Restrepo
- 1,092 receiving yards, 85 receptions, 12.8 yards per catch, 6 touchdowns
- All-ACC First Team
- 864 receiving yards, 57 receptions, 15.2 yards per catch, 8 touchdowns
- Third-Team All-ACC
The notion that there is no experience or production in the receiver and TE rooms is a myth. Miami has several players who have seen significant snaps and quality produced at the college level. Just based off the data, it is safe to say at least one of the receivers for Miami will surpass the 1,000 yard mark in the 2025 season.
- Xavier Restrepo
- 1,127 receiving yards, 69 receptions, 16.3 yards per catch, 11 touchdowns
- All-America First Team
- All-ACC First Team
- 752 receiving yards, 53 receptions, 14.2 yards per catch, 8 touchdowns
Miami current WR and TE room experience and production.
CJ Daniels RSR, 2,257 snaps, 2,439 receiving yards, 21 touchdowns
Keelan Marion 7th year SR, 1,517 snaps, 1,125 receiving yards, 7 touchdowns
Tony Johnson RSR, 1,491 snaps, 1,118 receiving yards, 13 touchdowns
JoJo Trader SO, 99 snaps, 91 receiving yards, 1 touchdown
Team Total:
The only team in the ACC that has more production or snaps played than Miami is Louisville. In addition to that every year in college football multiple true freshman receivers become All Conference players. Miami has all of the elements for a true freshman to have a breakout season.
- 7,074 snaps, 5,533 receiving yards, 56 receiving touchdowns
Closing Thoughts
The data clearly shows that Dawson’s offenses outperform the national average significantly, and Miami’s current roster fits his system perfectly. I’m genuinely excited to watch this offense in action, and I fully expect Miami to be one of the most efficient, explosive teams in the country next year.
Facts bro, your offense post made me take a deeper look and now I’m all in. I truly believe this is a legit top ten team.
The only way McConathy sees the field is if he plays DT. That guy has to put weight on.
I fully expect Miami to be one of the best offenses in college football this upcoming season, likely finishing in the top 10-15 nationally. Here’s why, backed by data and trends rather than hype.
Offensive Talent;
Total offensive players: 40
Blue chips: 23
Blue chip ratio: 57%
Shannon Dawson’s Proven Offensive Track Record
Dawson has a long history as a high-level offensive coordinator producing efficient, explosive offenses. Here’s a snapshot of his recent teams (excluding 2020 due to shortened season):
Year Team Passing Yds/Game National Passing Rank Rushing Yds/Game Yards/Play Points/Game Starting QB 2018 Southern Miss 317.0 #9 179.0 6.5 35.0 Jack Abraham 2021 Houston 271.4 #23 143.4 6.0 35.9 Clayton Tune 2022 Houston 314.0 #8 141.8 6.6 36.1 Clayton Tune 2023 Miami 258.0 #43 173.2 6.4 31.5 Tyler Van Dyke 2024 Miami 348.2 #3 188.9 7.6 43.9 Cam Ward
Dawson’s average per game (2018–2024):
For context, the NCAA FBS average (2018–2024) is:
- Passing Yards: 295.7
- Rushing Yards: 161.6
- Points: 35.4
That’s a difference of:
- Passing Yards: 210
- Rushing Yards: 140
- Points: 26
Dawson’s offenses consistently outperform the national average by wide margins.
- +85.7 passing yards/game
- +21.6 rushing yards/game
- +9.4 points/game
Quarterback Play: The Key Ingredient:
A major component of Shannon Dawson’s offensive approach is how much trust and responsibility he places on the quarterback. Dawson designs his offense to allow the QB to read the defense and make decisions, whether it’s deciding to throw a quick checkdown, take a shot deep, or hand off to a running back depending on what the defense shows post snap. This level of QB trust requires the quarterback to have good football IQ and feel for the game, making the smart and experienced Carson Beck the perfect QB for this system.
Under Dawson, quarterbacks historically have done well. His QBs have repeatedly produced 3,000+ passing yard season going back to Geno Smith at West Virginia (3,205 passing yards, 42 passing touchdowns, with a 71.2% completion rate) with two QB throwing for over 4,000.
QB’s under Dawson since 2018
Jack Abraham (Southern Miss, 2018)
Clayton Tune (Houston, 2021–2022)
- 2,347 passing yards and 21 passing touchdowns
- Led the nation in completion percentage (73.1%)
Tyler Van Dyke (Miami, 2023)
- 2021: 3,546 passing yards and 29 passing touchdowns
- Birmingham Bowl Offensive MVP
- Multiple AAC Player of the Week honors
- First Team All AAC
- Set AAC single season record for touchdown passes
Cam Ward (Miami, 2024)
- 2,703 passing yards and 6 passing touchdowns
So in 6 seasons as an OC his teams have only dropped out of the top 25 in passing once, the year TVD
- 4,313 passing yards and 38 passing touchdowns
- ACC Player & Offensive Player of the Year
- Davey O’Brien Award winner
- Manning Award winner
- Consensus First-Team All American
- Heisman Trophy finalist
Beck transferred in with experience, poise, and elite-level accuracy. From a clean pocket, he completed 70.0% of his passes, which ranks 5th since 2014.
Here’s how that stacks up with the best:
- Joe Burrow (82.3%) – 2019 Nat’l Champion
- Shedeur Sanders (77.0%) – 9-3 season
- Tua Tagovailoa (73.9%) – 2018 Nat’l Champion
- Justin Fields (72.5%) – Playoffs
- Carson Beck (70.0%) – Playoffs
- Jalen Hurts (69.5%) – Playoffs
- Michael Penix Jr. (68.8%) – Nat’l title game
- Drake Maye (68.0%) – 9-3 season
- Brock Purdy (67.7%) – 9-3 season
6 of these 10 QBs made the playoffs, and 3 won national titles. According to this data having Beck throwing from a clean pocket gives Miami. 60% chance at making the playoffs and a 30% chance of getting ring #6. That gives you a real sense of where Beck stands and what he could bring to this offense.
Offensive Line:
In 2025 Miami will have one of the best offensive lines in the nation, aiding in the ability to give Carson the clean pocket he needs. Miami has three future NFL draft picks up front in Markel Bell, Anez Cooper, and Francis Mauigoa. Mauigoa could go top 10 in 2026. This puts Miami in a special group. Since 2019, 7 of the last 12 teams that had three or more offensive linemen drafted ended up in the College Football Playoff. Three won it all:
Having that level of talent on the offensive line gives Miami a 58% shot at making the playoff and 25% chance at 6 rangz. That’s not opinion, that’s what the data shows.
- LSU (2019)
- Alabama (2020)
- Michigan (2023)
Running Game:
Miami features a deep running back rotation fully capable of hitting elite level rushing numbers this season. In 2024 Miami was 292 yards shy of accomplishing this. Given the expectation that Miami will run the ball more this season, I fully expect expect Miami to be 2,750 yards or above this season .
Average College Football Playoff Teams Rushing Stats (2022–2024)
Rushing Yards/Game: 172.5
Total Rushing Yards: 2,748
Rushing Touchdowns: 24.3
Miami Hurricanes 2024 Rushing Stats
Rushing Yards/Game: 188.9
Total Rushing Yards: 2,456
Rushing Touchdowns: 30
Difference: University of Miami 2024 vs. Average College Football Playoff Teams (2022–2024)
- Rushing Yards per Game: +16.4 yards/game
- Total Rushing Yards: –292 yards
- Rushing Touchdowns: +5.7 touchdowns
Miami will feature a three-headed monster in the backfield:
That’s over 2,186 rushing yards and 28 TDs combined. Find a way to get 570 more yards and Miami is cooking.
- CharMar Brown: 1,181 yards, 15 TDs
- Mark Fletcher: 607 yards, 9 TDs
- Jordan Lyle: 400 yards, 4 TDs
Pass Catchers:
In Shawn Dawson system receivers repeatedly put up 1,000 yard seasons. It is safe to say that trend will continue. Here is a breakdown of receiver production at his last 3 stops.
Leading Receivers under Shannon Dawson
Southern Miss (2018)
Houston (2021)
- Quez Watkins
- 1,198 receiving yards, 71 receptions, 16.9 yards per catch, 10 touchdowns
- Conference USA All-Conference selection
- 475 receiving yards, 38 receptions, 12.5 yards per catch, 4 touchdowns
Houston (2022)
- Tank Dell
- 1,329 receiving yards, 90 receptions, 14.8 yards per catch, 12 touchdowns
- First-Team All-American Athletic Conference
- Dave Campbell All-State First Team
- 753 receiving yards, 52 receptions, 14.5 yards per catch, 7 touchdowns
Miami (2023)
- Tank Dell
- 1,398 receiving yards, 109 receptions, 12.8 yards per catch, 17 touchdowns
- Second Team All-America
- First Team All-American Athletic Conference
- Dave Campbell's Texas Football First Team All-Texas
- Biletnikoff Award Semifinalist
- Earl Campbell Tyler Rose Award Semifinalist
- 622 receiving yards, 52 receptions, 12.0 yards per catch, 5 touchdowns
Miami (2024)
- Xavier Restrepo
- 1,092 receiving yards, 85 receptions, 12.8 yards per catch, 6 touchdowns
- All-ACC First Team
- 864 receiving yards, 57 receptions, 15.2 yards per catch, 8 touchdowns
- Third-Team All-ACC
The notion that there is no experience or production in the receiver and TE rooms is a myth. Miami has several players who have seen significant snaps and quality produced at the college level. Just based off the data, it is safe to say at least one of the receivers for Miami will surpass the 1,000 yard mark in the 2025 season.
- Xavier Restrepo
- 1,127 receiving yards, 69 receptions, 16.3 yards per catch, 11 touchdowns
- All-America First Team
- All-ACC First Team
- 752 receiving yards, 53 receptions, 14.2 yards per catch, 8 touchdowns
Miami current WR and TE room experience and production.
CJ Daniels RSR, 2,257 snaps, 2,439 receiving yards, 21 touchdowns
Keelan Marion 7th year SR, 1,517 snaps, 1,125 receiving yards, 7 touchdowns
Tony Johnson RSR, 1,491 snaps, 1,118 receiving yards, 13 touchdowns
JoJo Trader SO, 99 snaps, 91 receiving yards, 1 touchdown
Alex Bauman RSR, 1,553 snaps, 610 receiving yards, 13 touchdowns
Elija Lofton SO, 157 snaps, 150 receiving yards, 1 touchdown
Team Total:
The only team in the ACC that has more production or snaps played than Miami is Louisville. In addition to that every year in college football multiple true freshman receivers become All Conference players. Miami has all of the elements for a true freshman to have a breakout season.
- 7,074 snaps, 5,533 receiving yards, 56 receiving touchdowns
Closing Thoughts
The data clearly shows that Dawson’s offenses outperform the national average significantly, and Miami’s current roster fits his system perfectly. I’m genuinely excited to watch this offense in action, and I fully expect Miami to be one of the most efficient, explosive teams in the country next year.
