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Who are we running through in Charlotte?

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Looking at remaining conference schedules, I think it comes down to the winner of SMU/Wake on November 14, with a slim chance of it then running through Winston Salem on Nov 28 with the matchup against Duke if they somehow win the rest of their games... All this assuming we run the table. Miami winning out would essentially eliminate FSU/VT with their 2nd loss, I'm eliminating Pitt due to losing their QB

They don't literally but IMO Wake control their own destiny because they can eliminate SMU and their only loss could be to Miami. Pitt and Duke are undefeated but both play us and Pitt has an uphill battle without their QB anyway.

Maybe Clemson wins out and it gets into the tie-breakers with them and Wake having the same loss. Just really don't think they're good enough and writing them off for that.

Best guess is Wake. I think they beat SMU fairly easily.
 
I agree with all the Wake stuff. But they’re only a 3 point favorite this week. Still gotta go to Dallas to play SMU.

As far as odds, Miami is currently -425 to win the ACC.

SMU is 2nd, at +1200.

Then Pitt and Wake are +2000.

VT +2500

Duke +3000

I think if Wake beats NC State they’ll drop to about +1500 or better. On paper, that’s their 2nd hardest game left. Maybe the finale against Duke, but they’re home. They’ll be more than -3.5, which is what they are this week in Raleigh.
 
OrangeBowlMagic said:
Think so? It’d be very ACC, wouldn’t it? I’m just thinking a 17 team league, there’s gotta be 2 of those 17 who only lose 0 or 1, no??

But with 9 games for most teams, obviously the math lends to more losses. So maybe you’re right. I just don’t think so as of now.
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I just think there is no clear cut second best team. I think it’s Miami and then a bunch of other teams. And I see all those other teams beating up on each other with Miami giving most of them one loss.
 
I just don’t see it with Duke.
On schedule alone, 8 games in a row and the last 4 are:

@NC State
@Miami
Vs Clemson
@ Wake

If they go 2-2 through that stretch I think they would be happy, but 1-3 is possibly more likely.

To me they have the hardest path and I just don’t think it happens for them.
 
With Heintschel going down, I think the door is wide open for Wake Forest. If they beat SMU, I don’t see anyone else on their schedule beating them.

I think our team would love to play those guys again with a healthy secondary and an offense that’s got the running game figured out (thanks to the emergence of Ben Congdon).
 
cookies said:
JMO, I wouldn’t count out Louisville yet. The other three, yes.

The rest of their conference schedule isn’t daunting, they’ve had close losses, and they have a tiebreaker win over SMU.

This is also the first season with 9 conference games (although BC, UNC, Clemson, GT, & FSU only have 8) so multiple two loss teams being in the running for 2nd has to be taken into consideration.

If you count UVA’s loss to Nc State last year as a conference game, 6 acc teams had two in conference losses. I’d expect something similar to go down where this picture won’t be clear until post-Halloween.

Two teams with only eight conference games that intrigue me are GT & UNC. Through ten games, Duke was 5-5 (4-2). Through six games, Duke was 4-3 (3-1). Through four games, they were 2-2 (1-0) Maybe GT is this year’s Duke? Maybe that’s UNC?

So my teams of interest are GT, UNC, VT, and Louisville.

Like everybody else said, Wake and SMU are the favorites to get there. I’m more doubtful of SMU much more than Wake.

Wake is the easy answer. Yet, Jake ****ert has never won more than 8 regular season games in his previous four full seasons as a HC. He has never finished above .500 in-conference. And his team is one of most penalized in the country. He’s already won two really close games, still, I think his luck runs out as 4 of the remaining 6 conference games are road games; and Duke + UVA at home shouldn’t be cakewalks on papers. I see 2+ more losses somewhere down the road.

I think NC State and UVA have the most favorable schedules left. UVA’s tiebreaker being FSU bodes well for them. I just see a scenario where UVA only loses one more game. Will drop at least one of the road games and another at home. This is a 3 or 4 win conference team imo.

NC State’s schedule lines up nicely if they beat Wake Forest Saturday. No Miami, No SMU, and already beat Louisville who beat SMU. Dave Doreen has coached at NC State since 2013, and has never been to an ACC championship. I don’t expect that change now either.
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Judging by the FSU game, UVA are terrible.
 
OldhamA said:
Judging by the FSU game, UVA are terrible.
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Yeah they are bad; just not sure how bad. They play better at home and their offense is super limited.

They beat NC State w/ Beau going 9/11. Looking thru his Mizzou box scores, when he doesn’t get 55+ rushing yards, they usually lose against p4 competition (27-24 L to Alabama is the exception; 3 total TDs, 2 INTs).
 
disagree that Louisville or any other 2-loss team is eliminated...

I'd bet it's more likely than not that the 2nd place team is he who wins whatever the **** tiebreaker there is (I anticipate a slog of several 2-loss ACC teams behind the good guys)
 
BoludoCane21 said:
disagree that Louisville or any other 2-loss team is eliminated...

I'd bet it's more likely than not that the 2nd place team is he who wins whatever the **** tiebreaker there is (I anticipate a slog of several 2-loss ACC teams behind the good guys)
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More likely than not? I don’t know bro. It’s the ACC, I will never put anything past this league but Vegas has Louisville at 50/1 to win the conference, and they’re the lowest odds for a 2-loss team.

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OrangeBowlMagic said:
I was looking at the ACC standings and thinking about how the league is going to play out, so I figured I'd lay it out in case anyone else was thinking the same.

Until proven otherwise, I'm assuming we are donkey punching the rest of the league for the next 6 ACC games, we are finishing 9-0 in the ACC, and finally getting our *** to Charlotte. So, in the immortal words of Brian in Half Baked.....who's comin' with me???

Here are the current standings and this weeks games. I don't believe there's any chance for a 2-loss team to make it to Charlotte this year, so I'm not including anyone with 2+ losses in this. If we get pure carnage at some point and it looks like it might be possible, I'll add them, but for now, if you've got a 2 in the loss column, you're not partying with me in Charlotte.

1. Miami 3-0
2. Pitt 2-0
3. Duke 1-0
4. SMU 2-1
5. Wake 2-1
6. Clemson 2-1
7. VT 1-1
8. FSU 1-1
9. UVA 1-1
10. NC State 1-1
11. Cal 1-1
12. UNC 0-1
13. GT 0-1

So we're down to 12 possible victims. Louisville, Stanford, BC, and Syracuse all have 2+ losses, and we'll see ya next year.

So what's this week look like and who do we want to win?

FSU @ Louisville on Friday -- Louisville is eliminated, FSU is facing elimination. Louisville is -3.5. I don't think this matters for us, as UL is already done, and we play FSU next week, so even if they win, we're giving them loss #2 next week.

UNC @ Pitt Saturday Noon -- UNC is facing elimination, Pitt is -3.5 with their backup QB. We play both these teams down the road, so even with a win, we'll be giving UNC loss #2, and if Pitt loses they're probably done as we'll be giving them loss #2 in a couple weeks.

Wake @ NC State Noon -- IMO we're going to play Wake, Duke, or SMU in Charlotte, so this is a big one for Wake. If they lose, they're likely out of that race. Wake is -3.5 on the road, big game for both teams as both have 1 ACC loss and the loser of this game is very much on life support.

Duke @ GT 3:30 -- Duke is -7 on the road, GT is BAD, but you never know in this league. No safety net for GT, Duke is undefeated but they do have to play us, GT does not.

VT @ Cal 3:30 -- Elimination game for both, VT is -9.5. We do play VT, we do not play Cal.

Cuse @ UVA -- Cuse is already out, UVA cannot afford another loss. UVA is -9.5, we do not play either team.

If the Vegas lines hold, and knowing this league they most assuredly will not, but if they do, our 12 possible opponents are down to 7. Long way to go, but I think after this week and next, we'll start to see some real separation.

I'll try to do this again next week too if anyone gives a **** to follow all this as well.
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EVERYONE
 
OrangeBowlMagic said:
More likely than not? I don’t know bro. It’s the ACC, I will never put anything past this league but Vegas has Louisville at 50/1 to win the conference, and they’re the lowest odds for a 2-loss team.

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OrangeBowlMagic said:
More likely than not? I don’t know bro. It’s the ACC, I will never put anything past this league but Vegas has Louisville at 50/1 to win the conference, and they’re the lowest odds for a 2-loss team.

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?

They’re the only two loss team on this list (no ‘Cuse, BC, or Stanford who has 3 losses) and above 3 teams w/ only one conference loss; not to mention others like UNC, GT, and Cal all w/ 1 conf loss who aren’t in the screenshot.

Edit: now i see you meant two losses in general not conference records. Louisville is 2-3 (1-2) tho. I think Vegas keeping them above NC State who just beat em speaks loudly
 
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