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Who are we running through in Charlotte?

OrangeBowlMagic

OrangeBowlMagic

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I was looking at the ACC standings and thinking about how the league is going to play out, so I figured I'd lay it out in case anyone else was thinking the same.

Until proven otherwise, I'm assuming we are donkey punching the rest of the league for the next 6 ACC games, we are finishing 9-0 in the ACC, and finally getting our *** to Charlotte. So, in the immortal words of Brian in Half Baked.....who's comin' with me???

Here are the current standings and this weeks games. I don't believe there's any chance for a 2-loss team to make it to Charlotte this year, so I'm not including anyone with 2+ losses in this. If we get pure carnage at some point and it looks like it might be possible, I'll add them, but for now, if you've got a 2 in the loss column, you're not partying with me in Charlotte.

1. Miami 3-0
2. Pitt 2-0
3. Duke 1-0
4. SMU 2-1
5. Wake 2-1
6. Clemson 2-1
7. VT 1-1
8. FSU 1-1
9. UVA 1-1
10. NC State 1-1
11. Cal 1-1
12. UNC 0-1
13. GT 0-1

So we're down to 12 possible victims. Louisville, Stanford, BC, and Syracuse all have 2+ losses, and we'll see ya next year.

So what's this week look like and who do we want to win?

FSU @ Louisville on Friday -- Louisville is eliminated, FSU is facing elimination. Louisville is -3.5. I don't think this matters for us, as UL is already done, and we play FSU next week, so even if they win, we're giving them loss #2 next week.

UNC @ Pitt Saturday Noon -- UNC is facing elimination, Pitt is -3.5 with their backup QB. We play both these teams down the road, so even with a win, we'll be giving UNC loss #2, and if Pitt loses they're probably done as we'll be giving them loss #2 in a couple weeks.

Wake @ NC State Noon -- IMO we're going to play Wake, Duke, or SMU in Charlotte, so this is a big one for Wake. If they lose, they're likely out of that race. Wake is -3.5 on the road, big game for both teams as both have 1 ACC loss and the loser of this game is very much on life support.

Duke @ GT 3:30 -- Duke is -7 on the road, GT is BAD, but you never know in this league. No safety net for GT, Duke is undefeated but they do have to play us, GT does not.

VT @ Cal 3:30 -- Elimination game for both, VT is -9.5. We do play VT, we do not play Cal.

Cuse @ UVA -- Cuse is already out, UVA cannot afford another loss. UVA is -9.5, we do not play either team.

If the Vegas lines hold, and knowing this league they most assuredly will not, but if they do, our 12 possible opponents are down to 7. Long way to go, but I think after this week and next, we'll start to see some real separation.

I'll try to do this again next week too if anyone gives a **** to follow all this as well.
 
Based on schedule I think it’s going to be between SMU, Wake, or Clemson. SMU and Wake play each other so that will sort itself out.

Clemson doesn’t have to play Pitt, Louisville, SMU, Wake, Nc State, or UVa… they could win out the rest of their conference games and be in the ACCCG rematch against Miami.

I prefer SMU to complete the BTA revenge tour
 
KrazyCane said:
Based on schedule I think it’s going to be between SMU, Wake, or Clemson. SMU and Wake play each other so that will sort itself out.

Clemson doesn’t have to play Pitt, Louisville, SMU, Wake, Nc State, or UVa… they could win out the rest of their conference games and be in the ACCCG rematch against Miami.
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Man I’d probably rather play Clemson again than WF or SMU lol
 
So much can happen with the ACC Wheel of Destiny, but at this point in the season I see Wake and Duke as the two teams vying for #2 and the right to play Miami in Charlotte
 
I expect a rematch, either Wake, Duke, or Clemson. The only team who we won’t have already played is SMU, not because they’re good, because they somehow can’t lose to ACC opponents.

Duke’s last three opponents: Miami, Clemson, Wake. Might be knockout rounds in their last two weeks.

The other team this carousel of doom twirls around is VT, they play SMU and Clemson back to back. Them and Lou are the biggest bed wetters in the conference, both were set up for success. That Louisville conference slate is atrocious.
 
I'm not sure a 2 loss team is out at this point.

Pitt is done, IMO. No Mason, No good on O. UNC @UM, @Cal, @UL, FSU - can't see it.

Duke still has @GT, UNC, @Miami, Clemson, @Wake, @UVA, @NCSt- that is a tough road to Charlotte

SMU has VT, UVA, Wake, @Cuse, @Stanford - My pick based on schedule

Wake- @NCSt, @Cal, UVA, @SMU, @GT, Duke - likely 1-2 more losses

Clemson- VT, @FSU, @Cuse, GT, @Duke - likely 1-2 more losses

VT- @Cal, GT, @Clemson, @SMU, Stanford, @UM, UVA - 3 tough road games

FSU- @UL, @UM, Clemson, @BC, @Pitt, NCSt - 1-2 more losses

UVA- Cuse, @SMU, Duke, @Wake, Cal, UNC, @VT - 2 more losses
 
edge said:
If we win out, I think second place is a two loss team.
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Think so? It’d be very ACC, wouldn’t it? I’m just thinking a 17 team league, there’s gotta be 2 of those 17 who only lose 0 or 1, no??

But with 9 games for most teams, obviously the math lends to more losses. So maybe you’re right. I just don’t think so as of now.
 
If we have learned anything over the years it is that ACC teams are so unpredictable. Losses will occur when you least expect them.

That is why when people at the beginning of the of the year say that many teams are going to run the table or just lose one game I just sit back and chuckle.
 
OrangeBowlMagic said:
I was looking at the ACC standings and thinking about how the league is going to play out, so I figured I'd lay it out in case anyone else was thinking the same.

So we're down to 12 possible victims. Louisville, Stanford, BC, and Syracuse all have 2+ losses, and we'll see ya next year.
Click to expand...
JMO, I wouldn’t count out Louisville yet. The other three, yes.

The rest of their conference schedule isn’t daunting, they’ve had close losses, and they have a tiebreaker win over SMU.

This is also the first season with 9 conference games (although BC, UNC, Clemson, GT, & FSU only have 8) so multiple two loss teams being in the running for 2nd has to be taken into consideration.

If you count UVA’s loss to Nc State last year as a conference game, 6 acc teams had two in conference losses. I’d expect something similar to go down where this picture won’t be clear until post-Halloween.

Two teams with only eight conference games that intrigue me are GT & UNC. Through ten games, Duke was 5-5 (4-2). Through six games, Duke was 4-3 (3-1). Through four games, they were 2-2 (1-0) Maybe GT is this year’s Duke? Maybe that’s UNC?

So my teams of interest are GT, UNC, VT, and Louisville.

Like everybody else said, Wake and SMU are the favorites to get there. I’m more doubtful of SMU much more than Wake.

Wake is the easy answer. Yet, Jake ****ert has never won more than 8 regular season games in his previous four full seasons as a HC. He has never finished above .500 in-conference. And his team is one of most penalized in the country. He’s already won two really close games, still, I think his luck runs out as 4 of the remaining 6 conference games are road games; and Duke + UVA at home shouldn’t be cakewalks on papers. I see 2+ more losses somewhere down the road.

I think NC State and UVA have the most favorable schedules left. UVA’s tiebreaker being FSU bodes well for them. I just see a scenario where UVA only loses one more game. Will drop at least one of the road games and another at home. This is a 3 or 4 win conference team imo.

NC State’s schedule lines up nicely if they beat Wake Forest Saturday. No Miami, No SMU, and already beat Louisville who beat SMU. Dave Doreen has coached at NC State since 2013, and has never been to an ACC championship. I don’t expect that change now either.
 
Wake, VT or Clempson is what I see. VT is a good team they blew that game against pitt. Obviously we know Wake can play some ball. I still think Clempson has too many good players to not win games., though Miami do beat the **** out of their QB but he has talent and tough as ****
 
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