What it means to land the #1 overall OT

[DMoney]

Inspired by a post from @CANESCANES, I went back 20 years to analyze the hit rate for the consensus #1-ranked OT.

Miami commit Jackson Cantwell is the #1 OT on the composite this year (even after 247's ratings update). As you can see below, there is a very good chance he hits big. First rounders are in bold:

2005

Eugene Monroe, Virginia- 1st round, 8th overall, 90 NFL starts

2006

Andre Smith, Alabama- 1st round, 6th overall, 98 NFL starts

2007...

Continue reading...

 

[cway313]

Inspired by a post from @CANESCANES, I went back 20 years to analyze the hit rate for the consensus #1-ranked OT.

Miami commit Jackson Cantwell is the #1 OT on the composite this year (even after 247's ratings update). As you can see below, there is a very good chance he hits big. First rounders are in bold:

2005

Eugene Monroe, Virginia- 1st round, 8th overall, 90 NFL starts

2006

Andre Smith, Alabama- 1st round, 6th overall, 98 NFL starts

2007

Josh Oglesby, Wisconsin- Undrafted after multiple ACL injuries, first-team All Big 10 as a senior

2008

Matt Kalil, USC- 1st round, 4th overall, 1X Pro Bowl, 82 NFL starts

2009

Mason Walters, Texas- Undrafted, 51 starts at guard for the Longhorns

2010

Seantrel Henderson, Miami- 7th round, 29 NFL starts

2011

Cyrus Kouandijo, Alabama- 2nd round, First-team All-SEC, 8 NFL starts

2012

DJ Humphries, Florida- 1st round, 24th overall, 1X Pro Bowl, 100 NFL starts

2013

Laremy Tunsil, Ole Miss- 1st round, 13th overall, 5X Pro Bowl, 125 NFL starts

2014

Cam Robinson, Alabama- 2nd round, 2X First-team All-SEC, 101 NFL starts

2015

Martez Ivey, Florida- Undrafted

2016

Greg Little, Ole Miss- 2nd round, All-SEC First Team, 13 NFL starts

2017

Alex Leatherwood, Alabama- 1st round, 17th overall, 17 NFL starts

2018

Nicholas Petit-Frere, Ohio State- 3rd round, First-team All-Big 10, 28 NFL starts

2019

Evan Neal, Alabama- 1st round, 7th overall, 27 NFL starts

2020

Paris Johnson, Ohio State, 1st round, 5th overall, 31 NFL starts

2021

JC Latham, Alabama- 1st round, 7th overall, started all 17 games as rookie

2022

Zach Rice, UNC

2023

Francis Mauigoa, Miami

2024

Jordan Seaton, Colorado
____________________________________

Of the 17 players who already left college, nine of them were first round picks (53%). That includes six Top 10 picks.

Of the eight who weren't first rounders, four of those guys were Day 2 picks and first-team All-Conference players.

Of the four who weren't Day 2 picks, two were productive college players (Oglesby and Walters) and another (Seantrel) was a Day 1 NFL starter who fell out of the league due to Crohn's disease.

The only outright flop on the list was, of course, a Florida Gator (Ivey).

Three #1 overall OTs are still in college. Zach Rice, now at Syracuse, seems poised to join Ivey on the flop list. The other two (Mauigoa and Seaton) project as future first rounders.

When you consider the pedigree, the physical traits, and the intangibles, the odds are very high that Jackson Cantwell develops into an impact player.

Is this consensus data based off when they committed or the final ranking? Cantwell very well could be lower than #1 when the final rankings are released.

 

[AUcane]

Interesting stuff. Based on the variability of rankings, would be interesting to see the same analysis for the top 3-5 OL in each year instead of just the top 1.

 

[DMoney]

Is this consensus data based off when they committed or the final ranking? Cantwell very well could be lower than #1 when the final rankings are released.

This is what’s on the 247 database. My guess is it’s the final ranking that year.

 

[Dude]

Someone do the research on the nation's number 3 OT.

 

[CaneManeShane727]

Is this consensus data based off when they committed or the final ranking? Cantwell very well could be lower than #1 when the final rankings are released.

I agree with this but what are you basing your conclusion on? I’d like a different perspective

 

[TheOriginalCane]

Someone do the research on the nation's number 3 OT.

I'm sure @cway313 will get right on that...

 

[P-Tizzle]

I’ve produced over 9K posts and not a single one of them inspired you to write an article? @DMoney

 

[cway313]

I agree with this but what are you basing your conclusion on? I’d like a different perspective

Not drawing a conclusion, he dropped to #3 OT on 247 sports. If other sites follow suit he will drop in the composite. The rankings will change multiple times between now and him playing for Miami next fall.

 

[TheOriginalCane]

Not drawing a conclusion, he dropped to #3 OT on 247 sports. If other sites follow suit he will drop in the composite. The rankings will change multiple times between now and him playing for Miami next fall.

Again, not the point.

@DMoney 's post was to present 20 years of data, not to project the next 10 months of ratings.

But thank you for pointing out that these are not the final ratings. Very insightful.

 

[CANESCANES]

Not drawing a conclusion, he dropped to #3 OT on 247 sports. If other sites follow suit he will drop in the composite. The rankings will change multiple times between now and him playing for Miami next fall.

It’ll be interesting if On3 even drops him, they seem super high on him, they think he should be a 3 and out player if things go as planned

from the jump, Jackson Cantwell has been OT1 for me personally, he was massive massive priority to land

 

[Cookie917]

I agree with this but what are you basing your conclusion on? I’d like a different perspective

The fact that yesterday 247 already dropped him to OT3 would be my assumption. He may jump back up once the season starts but TBD at this point.

 

[Reyrey]

The only outright flop on the list was, of course, a Florida Gator (Ivey).

 

[cway313]

Again, not the point.

@DMoney 's post was to present 20 years of data, not to project the next 10 months of ratings.

But thank you for pointing out that these are not the final ratings. Very insightful.

What response would cause you to either A) Find a sharp object to go **** yourself or B) run full speed into high speed traffic. I'm good with either option.

 

[CANESCANES]

This is what’s on the 247 database. My guess is it’s the final ranking that year.

What’s your thoughts on this comment?

Do you believe the current group is any better?

 

[TomAce]

What’s your thoughts on this comment?

Do you believe the current group is any better?

View attachment 325645

He likes his job and doesn't want to get fired????

 

[CANESCANES]

Texas site put out this article on why starts matter on the offensive line

I’m just paraphrasing it, but he went really in depth on it and this was his conclusion

Stars definitely matter on the offensive line

On3's quality O-line rankings, and some of the players on this list, illustrate why it's important to put the best raw talent into developmental programs as opposed to placing an undue reliance on development of lower-rated talent. Look at the names, the teams involved, and the individual...

www.on3.com

 

[TheOriginalCane]

What response would cause you to either A) Find a sharp object to go **** yourself or B) run full speed into high speed traffic. I'm good with either option.

The only response would be your agreement to delete your account and accept a permanent IP ban. I'm good with that response.

 

[cway313]

The only response would be your agreement to delete your account and accept a permanent IP ban. I'm good with that response.

I hope you don't have a son.

 

[Fightinibis]

Inspired by a post from @CANESCANES, I went back 20 years to analyze the hit rate for the consensus #1-ranked OT.

Miami commit Jackson Cantwell is the #1 OT on the composite this year (even after 247's ratings update). As you can see below, there is a very good chance he hits big. First rounders are in bold:

2005

Eugene Monroe, Virginia- 1st round, 8th overall, 90 NFL starts

2006

Andre Smith, Alabama- 1st round, 6th overall, 98 NFL starts

2007

Josh Oglesby, Wisconsin- Undrafted after multiple ACL injuries, first-team All Big 10 as a senior

2008

Matt Kalil, USC- 1st round, 4th overall, 1X Pro Bowl, 82 NFL starts

2009

Mason Walters, Texas- Undrafted, 51 starts at guard for the Longhorns

2010

Seantrel Henderson, Miami- 7th round, 29 NFL starts

2011

Cyrus Kouandijo, Alabama- 2nd round, First-team All-SEC, 8 NFL starts

2012

DJ Humphries, Florida- 1st round, 24th overall, 1X Pro Bowl, 100 NFL starts

2013

Laremy Tunsil, Ole Miss- 1st round, 13th overall, 5X Pro Bowl, 125 NFL starts

2014

Cam Robinson, Alabama- 2nd round, 2X First-team All-SEC, 101 NFL starts

2015

Martez Ivey, Florida- Undrafted

2016

Greg Little, Ole Miss- 2nd round, All-SEC First Team, 13 NFL starts

2017

Alex Leatherwood, Alabama- 1st round, 17th overall, 17 NFL starts

2018

Nicholas Petit-Frere, Ohio State- 3rd round, First-team All-Big 10, 28 NFL starts

2019

Evan Neal, Alabama- 1st round, 7th overall, 27 NFL starts

2020

Paris Johnson, Ohio State, 1st round, 5th overall, 31 NFL starts

2021

JC Latham, Alabama- 1st round, 7th overall, started all 17 games as rookie

2022

Zach Rice, UNC

2023

Francis Mauigoa, Miami

2024

Jordan Seaton, Colorado
____________________________________

Of the 17 players who already left college, nine of them were first round picks (53%). That includes six Top 10 picks.

Of the eight who weren't first rounders, four of those guys were Day 2 picks and first-team All-Conference players.

Of the four who weren't Day 2 picks, two were productive college players (Oglesby and Walters) and another (Seantrel) was a Day 1 NFL starter who fell out of the league due to Crohn's disease.

The only outright flop on the list was, of course, a Florida Gator (Ivey).

Three #1 overall OTs are still in college. Zach Rice, now at Syracuse, seems poised to join Ivey on the flop list. The other two (Mauigoa and Seaton) project as future first rounders.

When you consider the pedigree, the physical traits, and the intangibles, the odds are very high that Jackson Cantwell develops into an impact player.

Ok, can we now stop with the Cantwell stories and act like we have been here before? Oh wait…