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Week 12 Rooting Guide — Path to CFP

Genghis Cane

Genghis Cane

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Getting to the playoff will come down to us winning out — I firmly believe that if we take care of business, we’ll get the help we need.

Now, THAT’s A HUGE “IF,” but instead of assuming we’re going 0-3 to end the season, I’m going to stay positive. Gun to my head — do we win out? Absolutely not. But I’m a glutton for punishment, so here we are..

Here are the games to watch next week, along with my assessment on the probability of an upset:

Clemson over Louisville (possible — we only need this for the 10% chance we get to the ACC championship, but it doesn’t matter for an At-Large bid.)

**edit: even if Louisville wins, we’re still fine, but then our path is SMU winning out**

Minnesota over Oregon (unlikely, but not necessary)

Pitt over Notre Dame (possible — WE NEED THIS…BIGGEST GAME OF THE WEEKEND)

Northwestern over Michigan (unlikely, but not necessary. Just want Michigan off our back)

Alabama over Oklahoma (possible — WE NEED THIS)

UCF over Texas Tech (unlikely, but not necessary)

Duke over UVA (possible. Only necessary for ACC race. If Duke loses, it wouldn’t be the worst result. We need them to lose as well, but now we need VT to beat UVA the final week)

Boston College over GT (unlikely, but not necessary)

Iowa over USC (possible — not necessary. But it does get USC off our back)

Florida over Ole Miss (unlikely — also, rooting for UF makes me want to kill myself, but it would help us if they won, although not necessary)

Baylor over Utah (possible — WE NEED THIS)

Georgia over Texas (possible — WE NEED THIS)

TCU over BYU (possible — WE NEED THIS)

USF over Navy (bolsters our resume. We want USF to be the G5 playoff rep and that will happen if they win out.)

Too long, didn’t read rooting guide:

— ND @ Pitt (root for Pitt)
— OU @ Bama (root for Bama)
— UVA @ Duke (root for Duke)
— Iowa @ USC (root for Iowa)
— Utah @ Baylor (root for Baylor)
— Texas @ Georgia (root for Georgia)
— TCU @ BYU (root for TCU)

Of all the games above, we need Pitt, Bama, and Georgia the most this week. I’ll bump this post for next week, but as you all can see….a lot of these outcomes are not far fetched.
 
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And another one


IMG_4592.jpeg
 
The fact that we need nd to lose when we have the head to head, more top 25 wins and the same record is the ultimate in cfb bs, but you're right we do.

All of this will probably happen and then we'll lose to Pitt but like all canes fans I'm a glutton for punishment so bring on the Hope!
 
Genghis Cane said:
Getting to the playoff will come down to us winning out — I firmly believe that if we take care of business, we’ll get the help we need.

Now, THAT’s A HUGE “IF,” but instead of assuming we’re going 0-3 to end the season, I’m going to stay positive. Gun to my head — do we win out? Absolutely not. But I’m a glutton for punishment, so here we are..

Here are the games to watch next week, along with my assessment on the probability of an upset:

Clemson over Louisville (possible — we only need this for the 10% chance we get to the ACC championship, but it doesn’t matter for an At-Large bid.)

Minnesota over Oregon (unlikely, but not necessary)

Pitt over Notre Dame (possible — WE NEED THIS…BIGGEST GAME OF THE WEEKEND)

Northwestern over Michigan (unlikely, but not necessary. Just want Michigan off our back)

Alabama over Oklahoma (possible — WE NEED THIS)

UCF over Texas Tech (unlikely, but not necessary)

Duke over UVA (possible. Only necessary for ACC race. If Duke loses, it wouldn’t be the worst result. We need them to lose as well, but now we need VT to beat UVA the final week)

Boston College over GT (unlikely, but not necessary)

Iowa over USC (possible — not necessary. But it does get USC off our back)

Florida over Ole Miss (unlikely — also, rooting for UF makes me want to kill myself, but it would help us if they won, although not necessary)

Baylor over Utah (possible — WE NEED THIS)

Georgia over Texas (possible — WE NEED THIS)

TCU over BYU (possible — WE NEED THIS)

To long, didn’t read rooting guide:

— Clemson @ Louisville (root for Clemson)
— ND @ Pitt (root for Pitt)
— OU @ Bama (root for Bama)
— UVA @ Duke (root for Duke)
— Iowa @ USC (root for Iowa)
— Utah @ Baylor (root for Baylor)
— Texas @ Georgia (root for Georgia)
— TCU @ BYU (root for TCU)

Of all the games above, we need Pitt, Bama, and Georgia the most this week. I’ll bump this post for next week, but as you all can see….a lot of these outcomes are not far fetched.
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Miami is a beggar program, again.
 
Genghis Cane said:
We’re going to be 16 this week. If we end up around #10ish going into the final rankings, it’s going to be really hard for the committee to not put us in.
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Assuming we don’t win the ACC. We need to be 10. We could only be 11 and get in if GT wins ACC and is ranked in the top 12
 
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Mi.Cane said:
Assuming we don’t win the ACC. We need to be 10. We could only be 11 and get in if GT wins ACC and is ranked in the top 12
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My only caveat to what Mi.Cane wrote is that the Networks would like to set up Catholics vs. Convicts for NBC. The money that would make for the sponsors, especially if Mario and Dawson pulled their heads out of their rectums and started using the Double Secret Probation Playbook for Florida State games, would be phenomenal.

My assumption is that the Committee is nothing but Hired Muscle for the Big Conferences, ESPNDisney and NBCSports. Once you do that, and recognize that they don't actually have the interests of the game at heart, everything else falls into place.

Like ranking the Little Irish folks at 9. It's about the money. Nothing else.
 
Genghis Cane said:
Getting to the playoff will come down to us winning out — I firmly believe that if we take care of business, we’ll get the help we need.

Now, THAT’s A HUGE “IF,” but instead of assuming we’re going 0-3 to end the season, I’m going to stay positive. Gun to my head — do we win out? Absolutely not. But I’m a glutton for punishment, so here we are..

Here are the games to watch next week, along with my assessment on the probability of an upset:

Clemson over Louisville (possible — we only need this for the 10% chance we get to the ACC championship, but it doesn’t matter for an At-Large bid.)

**edit: even if Louisville wins, we’re still fine, but then our path is SMU winning out**

Minnesota over Oregon (unlikely, but not necessary)

Pitt over Notre Dame (possible — WE NEED THIS…BIGGEST GAME OF THE WEEKEND)

Northwestern over Michigan (unlikely, but not necessary. Just want Michigan off our back)

Alabama over Oklahoma (possible — WE NEED THIS)

UCF over Texas Tech (unlikely, but not necessary)

Duke over UVA (possible. Only necessary for ACC race. If Duke loses, it wouldn’t be the worst result. We need them to lose as well, but now we need VT to beat UVA the final week)

Boston College over GT (unlikely, but not necessary)

Iowa over USC (possible — not necessary. But it does get USC off our back)

Florida over Ole Miss (unlikely — also, rooting for UF makes me want to kill myself, but it would help us if they won, although not necessary)

Baylor over Utah (possible — WE NEED THIS)

Georgia over Texas (possible — WE NEED THIS)

TCU over BYU (possible — WE NEED THIS)

USF over Navy (bolsters our resume. We want USF to be the G5 playoff rep and that will happen if they win out.)

Too long, didn’t read rooting guide:

— ND @ Pitt (root for Pitt)
— OU @ Bama (root for Bama)
— UVA @ Duke (root for Duke)
— Iowa @ USC (root for Iowa)
— Utah @ Baylor (root for Baylor)
— Texas @ Georgia (root for Georgia)
— TCU @ BYU (root for TCU)

Of all the games above, we need Pitt, Bama, and Georgia the most this week. I’ll bump this post for next week, but as you all can see….a lot of these outcomes are not far fetched.
Click to expand...
You should charge Mario money for the fact that you have to do this for us
 
Why do we NEED Pitt to beat ND?

I know right now ND is 8 spots ahead of us, but if both teams win out they'll be much closer in the standings and the committee would be forced to put us ahead of them. I don't see a scenario where a 10-2 ND team gets ahead of a 10-2 Miami team. I'd argue ND winning out is beneficial for us
 
Simplified:

Miami wins out.

Next week:
--AL to beat OK
--GA to beat TX
--Pitt to beat ND

Following week:
--Pitt to beat GT
--Cincy to beat BYU

Final week:
--TN to beat Vandy

Miami will be ranked #9 at that point, because beating a ranked Pitt should vault Miami over Utah and its **** schedule.
 
LA\^/ said:
Why do we NEED Pitt to beat ND?

I know right now ND is 8 spots ahead of us, but if both teams win out they'll be much closer in the standings and the committee would be forced to put us ahead of them. I don't see a scenario where a 10-2 ND team gets ahead of a 10-2 Miami team. I'd argue ND winning out is beneficial for us
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If Miami beats a "better" Pitt (that has quality victories over ND and GaTech), it also helps our case, and helps us to be ranked ahead of Utah. We would be the "best" 2-win team.

I don't have a lot of hope for dislodging any of the current undefeated or 1-loss teams that comprise the Top 8.

MAYBE Oregon loses to USC.
 
LA\^/ said:
Why do we NEED Pitt to beat ND?

I know right now ND is 8 spots ahead of us, but if both teams win out they'll be much closer in the standings and the committee would be forced to put us ahead of them. I don't see a scenario where a 10-2 ND team gets ahead of a 10-2 Miami team. I'd argue ND winning out is beneficial for us
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In my opinion…

1) gets ND out of our way. But they would still remain ranked.

2). Skyrockets Pitt up the rankings, which gives us one final opportunity to have an impressive win to end the season. That could matter big time if it’s us vs. another 2-loss team from a power conference.

We would have 3 wins against teams ending the season ranked. That’s an awesome resume.
 
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TheOriginalCane said:
If Miami beats a "better" Pitt (that has quality victories over ND and GaTech), it also helps our case, and helps us to be ranked ahead of Utah. We would be the "best" 2-win team.

I don't have a lot of hope for dislodging any of the current undefeated or 1-loss teams that comprise the Top 8.

MAYBE Oregon loses to USC.
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Nope, I ignored the top 8, for the most part. Let’s focus on teams 8-18.
 
LA\^/ said:
Why do we NEED Pitt to beat ND?

I know right now ND is 8 spots ahead of us, but if both teams win out they'll be much closer in the standings and the committee would be forced to put us ahead of them. I don't see a scenario where a 10-2 ND team gets ahead of a 10-2 Miami team. I'd argue ND winning out is beneficial for us
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Because we can beat pit on our own and need to anyway, so it wouldn’t matter

We need all the teams ahead of us to lose and to put Notre Dame within three spots of us so they can compare us at head to head which they don’t do when you’re this far separated
 
Handsome Squidbum said:
I don’t think Pitt will beat ND. So what’s that do to the math?
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We would need Pitt to beat GT the following week to stay relevant in the top 25. It then comes down to other teams losing so that ND and us aren’t separated by much. Forces the committee to either value head-to-head or look like giant hypocrites.
 
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