Week 10 Stat Roll

I really thought we had something with Dawson. Even the TVD year where he was throwing picks left and right and we rolled Emory and Jacurri out there for several games, the offense was still above average in a lot of statistics. You’ll never catch me downplaying what Cam did for us last year, but given 2023 as what I thought was a floor I just didn’t see it going this bad this quick.

It’s not just that we’re the most predictable offense I’ve watched this year, it’s that what we do is so goddamned easily clogged up when the defense knows what’s coming. The Louisville game clearly scared the **** out of the staff with Beck so as soon as the Trader pick happened they crawled into their shell so it didn’t get away from us, but throwing the ball was the only ******* thing working Saturday.

Yup. If you'd have told me over the summer we'd be 81st in yards per carry, I'd have tried to contact your family because I'd have assumed you needed serious help. And I said all summer we didn't bring Beck here to shelter him and run a conservative, ball-control offense and not let him throw the ball downfield. I was flat wrong. What's worse than wrong? That's what I was.

The cool part is, you're not wrong, but the pick to Trader was a PERFECT ball. Just a gorgeous throw, and flat dropped. So it's not like you need to go into a shell. Your QB was playing well. I'd argue he played really well for the entire game, until of course when we absolutely couldn't throw a pick...he throws a pick. Because such is life for Miami fans. But I thought he played a good game for what he was asked to do.

I heard during the broadcast that Dawson said (I think the quote was Dawson, if not someone please correct me) last year we needed to score 40 a week to win because of the defense. This year, we think we can get it done with 28. I almost threw up when I heard that ****. That is EXACTLY how they're calling offense. The awesome part is, you're not even getting 28, homeboy. If you got 28 in every game, we'd be 8-0.
 
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What is out longest rushing play for the season? I'd bet it was under 40 yards and against a cupcake.

I'll try to dig it up, but if you look at just rushes, we are 105th in 10+ yard rushes, and 111th in 20+ yard rushes.

We have ONE run of 30+ yards all season, that's 114th. It was Mark Fletcher against USF, 38 yard TD run to make that game 21-6 early in the 2nd quarter.
 
I couldn't agree more. Beck got absolutely buried here after the Louisville game, and it was mostly deserved. But I didn't go insane on him because I'm usually more inclined to take the good with the bad with a QB throwing downfield. Yes, it's riskier. But for THIS PARTICULAR TEAM, we need the risk. We're not good enough to win playing conservatively.

Trader had the 30+ yard TD on the 2nd drive of the game. After that, did we throw a single ball more than 20+ yards downfield until the last offensive play of the game to Marion? I don't remember one. We said let's get the ball to Toney more, which of course makes sense. But our answer to that was to use him like Deebo Samuel? He's not running through tackles in condensed spaces. He's at his best downfield, and in the intermediate game where he can make guys miss in the open field. What was his average depth of target on Saturday? 1 yard? WTF is Dawson doing, man?

And what's awesome is, you went basically 3 full quarters not throwing the ball downfield once. But we did pick up a LOT of 3rd and medium to long's with dig routes to Marion, a couple nice throws to Trader, etc. So, when you have a 3rd and 8, and it's literally the game.....you convert, the game is literally over......that's the time you run Marion on a deep ball for the first time in 3 hours. So *** backwards.
What else is infuriating, is that we're only running 68.5 offensive plays/game. We need 10-12 play drives to score 7 points, but we're only running 68.5. At 100% efficiency, we'd score 42 points/game. But of course, we aren't, and the penalties negate any type of drive.

The only solution i see (wtf do i know) is to run an up-tempo offense and ******* take shots downfield!
 
TrumpyCane is in the twilight zone

2024: Horrific defense, great offense
2025: Horrific offense, great defense

TrumpyCane also wanted to bring up the penalties, @OrangeBowlMagic any chance you know the % of the penalties on the offense compared to the defense? Defense seems to know where they are, stay disciplined which is what Heatherman preached while the offense is smacking itself in the face
Next year we'll suck on both offense and defense , but we'll be a special teams juggernaut.
 
I'll try to dig it up, but if you look at just rushes, we are 105th in 10+ yard rushes, and 111th in 20+ yard rushes.

We have ONE run of 30+ yards all season, that's 114th. It was Mark Fletcher against USF, 38 yard TD run to make that game 21-6 early in the 2nd quarter.
We are 2nd to last in the ACC for longest run at 38. I think the low is 33.
1st: 38-yards by Mark Fletcher
2nd: 30 yards by Pringle.
3rd: 22 yards by Marion

4th: <10 yards
So we're not even explosive in the area that's supposed to be our strength.
 
NO explosive plays= 50 things must go perfect for this offense to get 5-yards and ultimately 7 points if we're lucky, and without penalties.

Dawson needs to let Beck throw downfield, interceptions or not.
Yeah, I’m sick of this offense. That 26 times in a row rushing stat is wild.

We play so tight for what though? What are we protecting against?

If it wasn’t evident before, it should be now. Just let a bunch of **** rip. We have nothing to lose. We’re not going to any championship, just some worthless bowl game. What is there to lose?

We tried to hold on so tight that everything slipped away. If the lesson isn’t learned now, then I don’t know what to say, man.
 
NO explosive plays= 50 things must go perfect for this offense to get 5-yards and ultimately 7 points if we're lucky, and without penalties.

Dawson needs to let Beck throw downfield, interceptions or not.
We don't necessarily need to "throw downfield." We need to snap the ball faster, and get the ball out faster in the short passing game. We will get explosive plays after the catch.

Our short passing game is garbage because the screens take too long to develop. We also don't use the RBs in motion at all.

The TEs sucking is what it is, but we haven't adjusted by substituting or scheme.
 
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Yup. If you'd have told me over the summer we'd be 81st in yards per carry, I'd have tried to contact your family because I'd have assumed you needed serious help. And I said all summer we didn't bring Beck here to shelter him and run a conservative, ball-control offense and not let him throw the ball downfield. I was flat wrong. What's worse than wrong? That's what I was.

The cool part is, you're not wrong, but the pick to Trader was a PERFECT ball. Just a gorgeous throw, and flat dropped. So it's not like you need to go into a shell. Your QB was playing well. I'd argue he played really well for the entire game, until of course when we absolutely couldn't throw a pick...he throws a pick. Because such is life for Miami fans. But I thought he played a good game for what he was asked to do.

I heard during the broadcast that Dawson said (I think the quote was Dawson, if not someone please correct me) last year we needed to score 40 a week to win because of the defense. This year, we think we can get it done with 28. I almost threw up when I heard that ****. That is EXACTLY how they're calling offense. The awesome part is, you're not even getting 28, homeboy. If you got 28 in every game, we'd be 8-0.
Oh, completely agreed on the Trader pick. It just felt like once that happened we completely turtled, which is ridiculous period, but especially on a fluke play that was zero fault of Beck’s.

Apparently if someone says Beck played well/didn’t cost us that game it means they’re one of the “we’ll be more efficient this year” morons, but he played well. Save for the last play which, idk, in my completely unprofessional opinion that’s just not a spot where Toney should turn that upfield to let the trail defender have a shot at undercutting the route.
 
As always, these are only numbers from FBS vs FBS competition.

Offense:

Yards per play: 55th (5.74 YPP)
Yards per game: 55th (395.4 YPG)
Points per game: 43rd (30.4PPG)
Passing yards per game: 42nd (246.7 YPG)
Passing completion percentage: 5th (70.5%)
Passing yards per attempt: 42nd (7.9 YPA)
Passer rating: 41st (146.22)
Passing TDs: 55th (12 TDs)
Interceptions: 113th (9 INTs)
Rushing yards per game: 65th (148.71 YPG)
Rushing yards per attempt: 81st (3.97 YPA)
Rushing TDs: 30th (15)
Sacks given up per game: 5th (0.57 per game)
First Downs per game: 58th (20.7 per game)
3rd down conversion %: 27th (45.36%)
4th down conversion %: 34th (63%, 10 for 16 on the season)
TFLs allowed per game: 7th (3.43 per game)
Red Zone TD %: 21th (71% TD rate, 20 TDs in 28 chances)
Red Zone Scoring %: 34th (25 scores in 28 chances)
Field goal %: 20th (9 for 10)
PAT %: 1st (31 for 31)
10+ Yard Scrimmage Plays: 104th (88)
20+ Yard Scrimmage Plays: 103rd (26)
30+ Yard Scrimmage Plays: 91st (11) Only 1 against SMU
40+ Yard Scrimmage Plays: 96th (5) We had 20 in 12 games last year. 5 in 7 games this year.
50+ Yard Scrimmage Plays: 92nd (2)
60+ Yard Scrimmage Plays: 88th (1)
70+ Yard Scrimmage Plays: 91st (0)


Defense:

Yards per play allowed: 10th (4.62 YPP)
Yards per game allowed: 12th (298.6 YPG)
Points per game allowed: 12th (17.4 PPG)
Passing yards per game allowed: 58th (221.1 YPG)
Passing completion percentage allowed: 27th (58.3%)
Passing yards per attempt: 18th (6.3 YPA)
Passer rating allowed: 26th (118.11)
Rushing yards per game allowed: 2nd (77.43 YPG)
Rushing yards per attempt allowed: 7th (2.64 YPA)
Sacks per game: 35th (2.3 sacks per game)
3rd down % allowed: 9th (30.61% allowed)
4th down % allowed: 46th (50.5%, opponents 8/16 on 4th down)
Red Zone td % allowed: 103rd (68.75% allowed -- 11 TDs in 16 chances)
Red Zone Scoring % allowed: 95th (88% allowed -- 14 scores in 16 chances)
Punting: 45th (44.35 Yard average)
10+ Yard Scrimmage Plays allowed: 11th (76)
20+ Yard Scrimmage Plays allowed: 27th (25)
30+ Yard Scrimmage Plays allowed: 10th (9)
40+ Yard Scrimmage Plays allowed: 11th (4)
50+ Yard Scrimmage Plays allowed: 15th (2)
60+ Yard Scrimmage Plays allowed: 16th (1)


Team Stats:

Penalties: 134th (8.6 penalties per game) 134th out of 136 teams in America
Penalty yards: 111th (65.3 Yards per game)
Turnover margin: 40th (+0.29 per game -- 11 takeaways, 9 giveaways)
Time of possession: 5th (34:17 per game)
Seconds per play: 125th (29.5 seconds between plays, only 11 teams slower)

Advanced Metrics:

Total ADJ/EPA per play: 13th
Success Rate %: 5th
Offensive Adj/EPA per play: 43rd
Passing EPA/dropback: 28th
Rushing EPA/rush: 67th
Offensive Success Rate: 11th
Defensive Adj/EPA per play: 13th
Passing Defensive EPA/dropback: 31st
Rushing Defensive EPA/rush: 8th
Defensive Success Rate: 11th

Takeaways:

I'm exhausted. This is literally the same exact offense, every. Single. Week. Just look at this. Last 4 games we've played, here are the yards per play numbers:

FSU - 5.73
Louisville - 5.66
Stanford - 5.46
SMU - 5.55

I mean, holy ****. If you went into a coma at any point over the last month, and woke up during a Miami game, you'd just think you were watching the same exact game. It's just a carbon copy every single week. Middling yards per play, no explosives, decent success rates, but pathetic performance on the scoreboard. It's totally maddening to watch, and a complete failure by everyone involved. Last week in this space, DMoney argued that the offense didn't stink, and I somewhat relented because, it's not "worst in the country" bad. But almost as pathetic, it's just boring, repetitive, and average. There is absolutely nothing remotely exciting about what we do on that side of the ball right now. I could write an entire thesis about my full thoughts on this, but I'll do my best to keep it brief and just talk numbers. We're now 81st in rushing yards per carry, and think about this....we're 5th in the country in sacks allowed, and 7th in TFLs allowed. So we're not getting massive "rushing" losses via sacks like almost all other teams do. No, we don't get sacked, we don't take losses....we just run it 35 times a game and get 3-4 yards on every play. Pathetic.

I saw a stat over the weekend that I had to check out myself to believe, so I researched it. In the last 3 weeks, Miami has faced 26 plays of 3rd/4th and 1 yard or 2 yards to go. So, 3rd or 4th and short. 26 times. We have run the football........TWENTY-SIX TIMES. The game prior, against FSU, we threw the ball twice in that situation. Results? First down to Bowman, 40 yard TD to Toney. I really try to be open-minded here and not be a Monday Morning QB like most people do, but my god. Twenty-six times in a row? And again, I somewhat get it, because last year, it worked just about 100% of the time. We talked about it all year, in 3rd and 4th and short, we just mauled people. It worked, again and again and again. So I understand the thought process this year. But guess what? IT'S NOT WORKING THIS YEAR AT THE SAME RATE! We were Top 10 last year in every run push metric, and in yards before contact. This year, we stink. We're in the 40s nationally in both. For whatever reason, you don't have last year's run push. So don't do the same goddamned thing every single time???? Even if it doesn't work, just make a defense and a DC think about something other than you lining up with 3 tight ends and a freshman lineman "fullback" (who sucks at this, by the way), and making a rugby scrum. Simply maddening ****. It's game 8, how have you not figured this out yet?

So, yet another week (and likely season) where one unit plays well enough to win, and the other stinks out loud. 13 non-gifted points against Louisville, and 20 points against SMU (where you could argue 3 of those were gifted because Toney runs a punt to the 9 and, of course, you don't score and kick a FG). Simply nowhere near good enough. The entire offensive philosophy and approach can **** off. I said it to @JamesQuall yesterday, the theory, in a vacuum, makes sense. You have a very legit defense, you have who you feel is the best player in America who you want to impact the game as much as possible, play a little slower, try to be efficient, rely on your defense. Michigan did it and won a natty. Several programs have. The problem is, it doesn't work when you're the dumbest team in the history of sports, and cannot stop shooting yourself in the **** to the tune of SEVEN offensive penalties in one half.

On defense, another pretty standard performance. Not our best, but certainly good enough to win on the road. I'm pretty sure SMU had negative rushing yards before overtime. And yes, we made Jennings look far better than he actually is, but we had the ball with 5 minutes left in the game, up 20-17. A good team ends it on offense, and if so, you finish the game with your opponent scoring 17 points, 7 of which were gifted after a turnover, and barely 300 yards of total offense. That's good enough for me. We're now #2 in the country in yards per game allowed rushing, and 7th in yards per carry allowed. Top 10-15 in pretty much every single metric you can find. It continues to be a championship worthy defense, completely let down by an inept and boring *** offense. Wash, rinse, repeat for this program. In true gut-wrenching Miami fashion, it's pretty much the same situation, just reversed, as last year. IMO the 2024 offense with the 2025 defense wins a national championship, and easily. Like, almost effortlessly. Conversely, the 2024 defense with the 2025 offense probably goes 4-8. Truly sickening stuff.

Lastly, the elephant in the room that we keep swan diving into its massive piles of ****.....my god, the penalties. Again, this is just Groundhog Day. It's so frustrating. It's the same **** week after week after week. I had a long talk with my old man on Saturday, and I said I kind of just want to get beat by a good football team to see how it feels. Like, have 100 fewer yards of offense, have them run the ball down our throats, we can't block anyone, etc. Just to see if it feels as bad as losing this way does. Because we haven't lost by more than a score in 2 years. We almost always win the yardage battle, time of possession, etc. But we are so ******* stupid, ALWAYS. And it's been like this for 20 years. These penalties are just absolute back-breakers. If you're going to play methodically and rely on your defense, because you either can't or won't be explosive on offense, then you can't have drive after drive after drive completely crushed by brainless penalties. As noted above, we are now 3rd worst in the entire country in penalties per game. Inexcusable. I typically don't harp THAT MUCH about penalties, but the completely avoidable ones are inexcusable, and for whatever reason, they're so much worse this year. Last year, every week I praised the staff and kids because we looked professional on offense. Very few motion penalties, illegal formations, holds, etc. This year, do we practice? It's completely flipped. We look like we're only allowed to practice for about 45 minutes a week. And it's every single game, the same exact thing. Snap infractions, false starts, holds, just dumb, avoidable ****. But we also like to level up when we can, and run into a QBs face on a dead ball, so instead of actually making them convert a 4th and 9 that literally holds the balance of the game, we just give it to them.

Thanks for coming to my Ted Talk. Everyone involved in any aspect of the offensive football operation deserves every single bit of criticism coming their way. It's repulsive. Mario, Dawson, every position coach, every analyst, every kid, everyone. Same exact thing I said about the defense last year. You've completely wasted an elite unit by being dumb, stubborn, uncreative, and clueless. Shame on all of you.
Love the work you put in on these posts, and always want to thank you for the good read. Unfortunately this season, it's been brutally difficult to read them through. Not because of anything you did but the stats make my stomach turn.
 
Love the work you put in on these posts, and always want to thank you for the good read. Unfortunately this season, it's been brutally difficult to read them through. Not because of anything you did but the stats make my stomach turn.

Yeah, it's a similar feeling looking at this stuff every week like I had last year. Almost exactly the same, actually. The defense isn't a few times a decade unit like the offense was last year, but doing these every week and looking at everything in total, it was evident the offense was elite and the defense wasn't (and you could, you know, just watch the on-field product as well and come to that conclusion). This year it's the same. Just a slightly above average offense and we're likely 8-0 or at worst 7-1 and everything's fine. But it's been 5.5 yards a play for over a month now, and we're not doing a single thing differently to change it. That's the part that makes my stomach turn. You've got wayyyyy more than enough of a sample at this point to know who you are. You're not good enough. Do something different.

Or the absolute least, maybe stop getting penalties? I'd probably just settle for that, to be honest.
 
I couldn't agree more. Beck got absolutely buried here after the Louisville game, and it was mostly deserved. But I didn't go insane on him because I'm usually more inclined to take the good with the bad with a QB throwing downfield. Yes, it's riskier. But for THIS PARTICULAR TEAM, we need the risk. We're not good enough to win playing conservatively.

Trader had the 30+ yard TD on the 2nd drive of the game. After that, did we throw a single ball more than 20+ yards downfield until the last offensive play of the game to Marion? I don't remember one. We said let's get the ball to Toney more, which of course makes sense. But our answer to that was to use him like Deebo Samuel? He's not running through tackles in condensed spaces. He's at his best downfield, and in the intermediate game where he can make guys miss in the open field. What was his average depth of target on Saturday? 1 yard? WTF is Dawson doing, man?

And what's awesome is, you went basically 3 full quarters not throwing the ball downfield once. But we did pick up a LOT of 3rd and medium to long's with dig routes to Marion, a couple nice throws to Trader, etc. So, when you have a 3rd and 8, and it's literally the game.....you convert, the game is literally over......that's the time you run Marion on a deep ball for the first time in 3 hours. So *** backwards.
Trying to tendency break at the wrong time a guess.
 
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Yeah, it's a similar feeling looking at this stuff every week like I had last year. Almost exactly the same, actually. The defense isn't a few times a decade unit like the offense was last year, but doing these every week and looking at everything in total, it was evident the offense was elite and the defense wasn't (and you could, you know, just watch the on-field product as well and come to that conclusion). This year it's the same. Just a slightly above average offense and we're likely 8-0 or at worst 7-1 and everything's fine. But it's been 5.5 yards a play for over a month now, and we're not doing a single thing differently to change it. That's the part that makes my stomach turn. You've got wayyyyy more than enough of a sample at this point to know who you are. You're not good enough. Do something different.

Or the absolute least, maybe stop getting penalties? I'd probably just settle for that, to be honest.
Great points, especially the drive zapping penalties. At the rate they are happening and the timing of them have my conspiracy tin foil hat squeezing the **** out of my skull, but then you get the constant off-sides call along the line and it's clear it's mostly us. That said, I can't blame the team for not executing the 26 run plays on 4th down you highlighted. How TF does that not scream from the hill tops, TENDANCY!!!!! Its infuriating, all of it. On the Trader catch for a TD, you came to mind boss (no diddy), we've been waiting for that dude to finally showcase his talent, but why would we not continue to expose that weakness all game long?
 
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