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Week 1 Parlay 9/1 Odds

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vegascanefan

Joined
Sep 2, 2018
Messages
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Got this from a well known handicapper on his early takes for games. He says the bottom 3 are locks but the Miami game scares him. He says if Miami covers they will win. If they lose they won't cover.
WagerType:PARLAY (4 TEAMS)
Date:
Team:​
Aug 24
CFB [292] MIAMI FLORIDA +8-125 (B+½)​
Aug 29
CFB [140] TEXAS A&M -34-120 (B+½)​
Aug 31
CFB [207] OREGON +3-105​
Sep 02
CFB [217] NOTRE DAME -20-120 (B+½)​
 
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Would it be dumb to throw a grand down and picking a parlay of every FCS team losing against every P5 team from week 1. No covering, just straight.
 
OriginalGatorHater said:
Would it be dumb to throw a grand down and picking a parlay of every FCS team losing against every P5 team from week 1. No covering, just straight.
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Yes. First most casinos won't take more than a 12 team parlay and second the odds will still probably be less than even money. You'd be better off just picking 10 matchups and bet them straight.
 
Can I ask what the reasoning behind buying a 1/2 point on 7.5 is? Statically the most common scoring denominations in football are 3 & 7 and no combination of those numbers forms a meaningfull difference between 7.5 and 8... if the line was +7 and you bought up to 7.5 I would understand... that move I don’t. Am I missing something?
 
954Cane'21 said:
Can I ask what the reasoning behind buying a 1/2 point on 7.5 is? Statically the most common scoring denominations in football are 3 & 7 and no combination of those numbers forms a meaningfull difference between 7.5 and 8... if the line was +7 and you bought up to 7.5 I would understand... that move I don’t. Am I missing something?
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You’re not and that is correct
 
OriginalGatorHater said:
Thank you.
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Somehow I got the impression you play The Market. If so, you are already in the biggest gambling establishment in the world, why bother with this stuff. That said, I like the Parlay OP posted and love casino action. But I am out of the market just now so I need some risk. I made out great in the big crash in '08 because I am a contrarian. Same with the 2016 election results and aftermath. Won big on Trump and the markets' rise after. Bailed when last year when Fed starting raising rates and am sitting on cash now.

Little havy for gator week but my next play will be when market finally realizes China will not do a trade deal Trump will sign and Trump doesn't really want one. He clearly sees the eventual war, real war, with China and knows that industrial manufacturing was how we won WWII and wants all those factories back.

My assumptions are about a 20% or greater fall in market, US real economy remains strong even as rest of world weakens, and Trump wins re-election with about 320 electoral votes(I don't see making the play before the election and if he losses I will sit out the turmoil that follows - too old for a ad hoc bet) Forgetting the whole war thing and any feelings about Trump one way or another, what do you think the best long plays would be for a "no deal" or even a "no trade" result with China?
 
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954Cane'21 said:
Can I ask what the reasoning behind buying a 1/2 point on 7.5 is? Statically the most common scoring denominations in football are 3 & 7 and no combination of those numbers forms a meaningfull difference between 7.5 and 8... if the line was +7 and you bought up to 7.5 I would understand... that move I don’t. Am I missing something?
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How about buying A&M down to 34?!
 
954Cane'21 said:
Can I ask what the reasoning behind buying a 1/2 point on 7.5 is? Statically the most common scoring denominations in football are 3 & 7 and no combination of those numbers forms a meaningfull difference between 7.5 and 8... if the line was +7 and you bought up to 7.5 I would understand... that move I don’t. Am I missing something?
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If you're looking at purely the metrics, buying a spread from +7.5 to +8 doesn't make much sense. But here you are talking about a long shot parlay. Nobody who makes a living gambling on sports are putting in longshot parlays; they are a favorite of your casual gambler. Looking at that parlay above...

A $100 bet on that would pay $1,081 if it hits. Take that initial line back down to +7.5 (i.e. don't buy that half point) and the parlay pays $1,152. So why does someone buy that .5pt in a parlay like this? Because they don't really care that much about the difference of hitting for $1,152 vs $1,081 (they are very happy either way!) and get solace in the fact that if the Gators happen to win by 8 their parlay will still be alive (albeit at a lower payout).

Does that answer your question? No, it doesn't make much sense at all from a gambling-science perspective. But I buy points like that in my longshot parlays all the time. Now I generally buy upwards of 3 to greatly increase my odds of cashing even at a substantially lower payout, but I can appreciate why a casual gambler might buy that Miami line to 8 from 7.5 in a parlay like the one above.
 
For_The_U said:
If you're looking at purely the metrics, buying a spread from +7.5 to +8 doesn't make much sense. But here you are talking about a long shot parlay. Nobody who makes a living gambling on sports are putting in longshot parlays; they are a favorite of your casual gambler. Looking at that parlay above...

A $100 bet on that would pay $1,081 if it hits. Take that initial line back down to +7.5 (i.e. don't buy that half point) and the parlay pays $1,152. So why does someone buy that .5pt in a parlay like this? Because they don't really care that much about the difference of hitting for $1,152 vs $1,081 (they are very happy either way!) and get solace in the fact that if the Gators happen to win by 8 their parlay will still be alive (albeit at a lower payout).

Does that answer your question? No, it doesn't make much sense at all from a gambling-science perspective. But I buy points like that in my longshot parlays all the time. Now I generally buy upwards of 3 to greatly increase my odds of cashing even at a substantially lower payout, but I can appreciate why a casual gambler might buy that Miami line to 8 from 7.5 in a parlay like the one above.
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Got it, thank you for a informed response!
 
954Cane'21 said:
Can I ask what the reasoning behind buying a 1/2 point on 7.5 is? Statically the most common scoring denominations in football are 3 & 7 and no combination of those numbers forms a meaningfull difference between 7.5 and 8... if the line was +7 and you bought up to 7.5 I would understand... that move I don’t. Am I missing something?
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You want to eliminate the hook and bring the push into play so that you have a 4 teamer that just drops to a 3 teamer. For instance, 28-20 game loses on the +7.5 but pushes and keeps the action alive at +8 with the push. Just gamblers appetite really and if books allow it. Some books in Vegas don't allow buying points on parlays just straight bets. Lost a 6 teamer last year in Vegas on the ND Navy line because the ND kicker missed an extra point and the .5 came into play because I couldn't buy the .5 up or down.
 
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Cribby said:
Parlays are fools gold. Bet only on a game you feel really good about.

I play small parlays for fun , like 10 bucks on a 6-8 team parlay for a big win. I’d never drop real money on a parlay.
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Almost every weekend I do a small entry long shot parlay just for the **** of it. Like you said, for fun. Very little risk and an outside shot at hitting big. But yeah, they are unquestionably fools gold.

The only parlays I play seriously are moneyline chalk parlays, where you take 4-8 heavy favorites and string them all together on the moneyline to get somewhere around an even return (maybe 2x or 3x max). I love those because by definition there would have to be a major upset for the bet to lose. I do very well with those.
 
Here's a great example of a chalk parlay for week 1:

Wisconsin, Okie State, IU, Cuse, USC. Pays even money. As they are all heavy favorites, it would take a pretty surprising upset in week 1 for that bet to lose.

I do those a lot. They often end up bankrolling my other losing bets. LOL
 
Gatorhater said:
Somehow I got the impression you play The Market. If so, you are already in the biggest gambling establishment in the world, why bother with this stuff. That said, I like the Parlay OP posted and love casino action. But I am out of the market just now so I need some risk. I made out great in the big crash in '08 because I am a contrarian. Same with the 2016 election results and aftermath. Won big on Trump and the markets' rise after. Bailed when last year when Fed starting raising rates and am sitting on cash now.

Little havy for gator week but my next play will be when market finally realizes China will not do a trade deal Trump will sign and Trump doesn't really want one. He clearly sees the eventual war, real war, with China and knows that industrial manufacturing was how we won WWII and wants all those factories back.

My assumptions are about a 20% or greater fall in market, US real economy remains strong even as rest of world weakens, and Trump wins re-election with about 320 electoral votes(I don't see making the play before the election and if he losses I will sit out the turmoil that follows - too old for a ad hoc bet) Forgetting the whole war thing and any feelings about Trump one way or another, what do you think the best long plays would be for a "no deal" or even a "no trade" result with China?
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I just figured "if its free money might as well grab it lol". But I didn't realize how little "reward" I would get for being correct.

Great points overall and I have to say I agree with you. Honestly, my business is in the private market so stocks are not my forte. I dabble in them, but I am not an expert by any means.
 
Cribby said:
Parlays are fools gold. Bet only on a game you feel really good about.

I play small parlays for fun , like 10 bucks on a 6-8 team parlay for a big win. I’d never drop real money on a parlay.
Click to expand...

I play small parlays like that weekly....and 1 teamers or 2 teams at a higher rate.

Early inc ollege football season is generally time to make money...

Also Alabama at the half last year was $$$$$
 
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