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Vegas showing us some Love this week

Novacane32000

Novacane32000

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but I think they got the start time wrong

1569785787493.webp
 
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Vegas is like a hypnotist. “Look at the swinging pocket watch, look at it, keep your eyes on it, keep looking at it, when I count to three, you will want this line to be sooo true...and yes, it will be quite true in your mind, but when you wake up, reality will tell you otherwise, just don’t give in to it....”
 
Unsider said:
Vegas is like a hypnotist. “Look at the swinging pocket watch, look at it, keep your eyes on it, keep looking at it, when I count to three, you will want this line to be sooo true...and yes, it will be quite true in your mind, but when you wake up, reality will tell you otherwise, just don’t give in to it....”
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You realize that Vegas is just a market maker right? If you lose your bet, they don't win and vice versa. They make money via the fees they charge and move the lines so there is equal action on both sides. It's no different than an options dealer.
 
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Canes1968 said:
You realize that Vegas is just a market maker right? If you lose your bet, they don't win and vice versa. They make money via the fees they charge and move the lines so there is equal action on both sides. It's no different than an options dealer.
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Of course. Just commenting at those drooling at what Vegas thinks/knows.
 
If Miami doesn't cover the " current " point spread handily. Then Miami really does suck this season. Nevertheless, I ain't going to put down no serious cash on Miami! Because there's still to many questions surrounding the program.
 
In a perfect college football realm. Miami should win the game by at least " 14 points. " But then again... ??????????????
 
Canes1968 said:
You realize that Vegas is just a market maker right? If you lose your bet, they don't win and vice versa. They make money via the fees they charge and move the lines so there is equal action on both sides. It's no different than an options dealer.
Click to expand...

Equal action is a myth. It seldom happens. The sportsbook almost always will need one side or the other.

When I worked in sportsbooks as supervisor I would check the hypothetical result all the time. The computer would allow you to apply a theoretical score to a game, and then spit out the bottom line. The vast majority of the time it would look normal but once in a while a shocking outcome would show up, like when some guy needed a side to hit a big parlay that we were unaware of.

Most of the time it would look something like this: Team A covers the sportsbook wins $12,800. Team B covers the sportsbook loses $8400.

That's why the action does not have to be balanced. The "win" is greater than the "loss" on almost every game. Behind the scenes you take that all year long and rely on normal distribution to put you ahead.

The odds are based on blended sets of power ratings, and a home field advantage...if any. The power ratings are by far the best method to stick up a number that will split the action reasonably well.

Then you just sit back and see what happens. Sportsbooks make far fewer subjective decisions than bettors do. That aspect shocked me beyond anything else. On many days your greatest decisions behind the counter are which customer are entitled to food comps, among the dozens who will ask for them each day, and which game to put on which television. You always have some genius demanding that his favored game be on the screen smack in front of his face. Meanwhile he might be a $10 bettor.
 
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Awsi Dooger said:
Equal action is a myth. It seldom happens. The sportsbook almost always will need one side or the other.

When I worked in sportsbooks as supervisor I would check the hypothetical result all the time. The computer would allow you to apply a theoretical score to a game, and then spit out the bottom line. The vast majority of the time it would look normal but once in a while a shocking outcome would show up, like when some guy needed a side to hit a big parlay that we were unaware of.

Most of the time it would look something like this: Team A covers the sportsbook wins $12,800. Team B covers the sportsbook loses $8400.

That's why the action does not have to be balanced. The "win" is greater than the "loss" on almost every game. Behind the scenes you take that all year long and rely on normal distribution to put you ahead.

The odds are based on blended sets of power ratings, and a home field advantage...if any. The power ratings are by far the best method to stick up a number that will split the action reasonably well.

Then you just sit back and see what happens. Sportsbooks make far fewer subjective decisions than bettors do. That aspect shocked me beyond anything else. On many days your greatest decisions behind the counter are which customer are entitled to food comps, among the dozens who will ask for them each day, and which game to put on which television. You always have some genius demanding that his favored game be on the screen smack in front of his face. Meanwhile he might be a $10 bettor.
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It’s like trying to convince someone who refutes global warming exists. Don’t waste your time. The “equal action on both sides” myth has been accepted as fact by many. Too many.
 
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