Vegas odds for 9/7 against the Turds

[wicks23]

under....

Under is a loss IMO. We need to play our game. We need to come out and hit them in the mouth, let them know we are Miami. Remember that ****.

And this is why I like Coley. I get the impression this **** has the pedal to metal mentality and will attack UF all game.

Coley is going to test the UF defense.

I trust he will use our playmakers to create mismatches, and exploit their weaknesses.

Working under Jimbo and studying UF the past few years will pay dividends in my opinion.

I agree with what you're saying. I also think he kept things very vanilla against FAU intentionally. I hope this also becomes advantageous against UF.

 

[DaU83]

under....

toledo

Under is a loss IMO. We need to play our game. We need to come out and hit them in the mouth, let them know we are Miami. Remember that ****.

I agree...I think we will need to be right around 30 to win this game. I just have a hard time believing our D can hold them under 20...I/d be happy to be wrong!!

mighty toledo held them to 24 points..

 

[Jnmjr]

We were 2 point underdogs at The Swamp in '02.... I like how that turned out

 

[wicks23]

under....

toledo

Under is a loss IMO. We need to play our game. We need to come out and hit them in the mouth, let them know we are Miami. Remember that ****.

I agree...I think we will need to be right around 30 to win this game. I just have a hard time believing our D can hold them under 20...I/d be happy to be wrong!!

mighty toledo held them to 24 points..

So I assume you're saying we wont score over 34 this season since mighty FAU held us to that.

I'm just saying it was their first game of the season & they had numerous players out.

 

[SoFlaSmitty]

when your own team plays leave the over/under alone. If you take the over you will be hoping both teams score at some point to cover your bet and if you take the under you will be hoping for U***s D to stop us.

 

[SoFlaSmitty]

under....

toledo

Under is a loss IMO. We need to play our game. We need to come out and hit them in the mouth, let them know we are Miami. Remember that ****.

I agree...I think we will need to be right around 30 to win this game. I just have a hard time believing our D can hold them under 20...I/d be happy to be wrong!!

mighty toledo held them to 24 points..

So I assume you're saying we wont score over 34 this season since mighty FAU held us to that.

I'm just saying it was their first game of the season & they had numerous players out.

most of their players that where out where on the D side of the ball so them not being able to score has nothing to do with their players out.

 

[rudebuddha]

Take the over

I don't know. If we score 49 that means to win the over we have to rely on the gators for a field goal.

 

[Awsi Dooger]

Game has settled at -3. It will likely sit in that neighborhood all week unless one of the major betting groups gets involved. There are still a couple of them out there and they can have considerable influence, particularly early in the season when the oddsmakers are concerned about soft numbers.

When I was full time in Las Vegas and involved in the betting scene I always knew who was responsible for the moves, whether it was Billy Walters' Computer Boys or Artie Bodendorfer's group or the Poker Boys, etc. Sometimes I'd get advanced warning on who they who going to play, from one of their runners. These days I'm not as well informed. But if you see college betting numbers jumping all over the place, moving a point or more, particularly on a Thursday, it's due to one of the major groups. Their basis might be a computer program or any number of factors. There's no reason to be alarmed or to try to make sense of it. They bet dozens of games and hope to grind a profit.

BTW, currently the money line is relatively low at Florida -145, Miami +125. That's not good value for taking the underdog. A 3 point spread in college football normally offers the underdog +130 or +135 on the money line. I see lots of infrequent bettors try to make a point by refusing the points and taking the money line. That's fine as long as there is corresponding value. In this case you're robbing yourself if you take +125 when +3 points are available, and possibly +3.5 later in the week. The idea is to make the correct choice as often as possible.

 

[dycane]

Game has settled at -3. It will likely sit in that neighborhood all week unless one of the major betting groups gets involved. There are still a couple of them out there and they can have considerable influence, particularly early in the season when the oddsmakers are concerned about soft numbers.

When I was full time in Las Vegas and involved in the betting scene I always knew who was responsible for the moves, whether it was Billy Walters' Computer Boys or Artie Bodendorfer's group or the Poker Boys, etc. Sometimes I'd get advanced warning on who they who going to play, from one of their runners. These days I'm not as well informed. But if you see college betting numbers jumping all over the place, moving a point or more, particularly on a Thursday, it's due to one of the major groups. Their basis might be a computer program or any number of factors. There's no reason to be alarmed or to try to make sense of it. They bet dozens of games and hope to grind a profit.

BTW, currently the money line is relatively low at Florida -145, Miami +125. That's not good value for taking the underdog. A 3 point spread in college football normally offers the underdog +130 or +135 on the money line. I see lots of infrequent bettors try to make a point by refusing the points and taking the money line. That's fine as long as there is corresponding value. In this case you're robbing yourself if you take +125 when +3 points are available, and possibly +3.5 later in the week. The idea is to make the correct choice as often as possible.

My book's line has been strong at 3/-120. I took the game last month when it was 4/-110, so I am obviously in good shape. I think there is a good chance we see a line change. As you know, those computer sims put a bunch of weight in the weather variable. Will be interesting to see if the line moves on late Friday when the weather is exponentially more predictable than now. Objectively, I think this sets up as a good home dog play at 3.

 

[Fzac75]

Game has settled at -3. It will likely sit in that neighborhood all week unless one of the major betting groups gets involved. There are still a couple of them out there and they can have considerable influence, particularly early in the season when the oddsmakers are concerned about soft numbers.

When I was full time in Las Vegas and involved in the betting scene I always knew who was responsible for the moves, whether it was Billy Walters' Computer Boys or Artie Bodendorfer's group or the Poker Boys, etc. Sometimes I'd get advanced warning on who they who going to play, from one of their runners. These days I'm not as well informed. But if you see college betting numbers jumping all over the place, moving a point or more, particularly on a Thursday, it's due to one of the major groups. Their basis might be a computer program or any number of factors. There's no reason to be alarmed or to try to make sense of it. They bet dozens of games and hope to grind a profit.

BTW, currently the money line is relatively low at Florida -145, Miami +125. That's not good value for taking the underdog. A 3 point spread in college football normally offers the underdog +130 or +135 on the money line. I see lots of infrequent bettors try to make a point by refusing the points and taking the money line. That's fine as long as there is corresponding value. In this case you're robbing yourself if you take +125 when +3 points are available, and possibly +3.5 later in the week. The idea is to make the correct choice as often as possible.

My book's line has been strong at 3/-120. I took the game last month when it was 4/-110, so I am obviously in good shape. I think there is a good chance we see a line change. As you know, those computer sims put a bunch of weight in the weather variable. Will be interesting to see if the line moves on late Friday when the weather is exponentially more predictable than now. Objectively, I think this sets up as a good home dog play at 3.

Did a two team parlay with my Canes and Fins. Canes -3 and Fins pick em. Putting my money where my heart, mind, soul and mouth is!

 

[Awsi Dooger]

I took the game last month when it was 4/-110, so I am obviously in good shape.

Thanks for mentioning that number. I didn't follow the early numbers this summer so I wasn't aware of what it was. For months I assumed it would be -3 or -3.5 on the week of the game.

In the mid and late '90s, the Imperial Palace and Caesar's Palace were the only two joints in Las Vegas that would put up numbers ahead of time, the so-called Marquee Matchups. Jay Kornegay, currently of LHV (Hilton), was running the Imperial Palace at that time. Sometimes I could get 3 or even 7 point middles merely by running across the street. I got spoiled and it's been difficult to deal with "normal" conditions ever since. The Imperial Palace had a sharper line than Caesar's on those early numbers. I remember when Caesar's was still using -13.5 on Florida State hosting the Canes in 1997, when the Imperial Palace was all the way up to -21. I bet the -13.5, popped it again at -14, and didn't even bother with the +21. By gametime weeks later it was up to -22 or -23. That was the 47-0 debacle.

 

[LuCane]

I took the game last month when it was 4/-110, so I am obviously in good shape.

Thanks for mentioning that number. I didn't follow the early numbers this summer so I wasn't aware of what it was. For months I assumed it would be -3 or -3.5 on the week of the game.

In the mid and late '90s, the Imperial Palace and Caesar's Palace were the only two joints in Las Vegas that would put up numbers ahead of time, the so-called Marquee Matchups. Jay Kornegay, currently of LHV (Hilton), was running the Imperial Palace at that time. Sometimes I could get 3 or even 7 point middles merely by running across the street. I got spoiled and it's been difficult to deal with "normal" conditions ever since. The Imperial Palace had a sharper line than Caesar's on those early numbers. I remember when Caesar's was still using -13.5 on Florida State hosting the Canes in 1997, when the Imperial Palace was all the way up to -21. I bet the -13.5, popped it again at -14, and didn't even bother with the +21. By gametime weeks later it was up to -22 or -23. That was the 47-0 debacle.

So then what do you think of this week's line? I'm not betting this one either way. Gus Edwards' "failed" TD attempt once again reminded me why I hate to bet on my own teams.

 

[canefish]

Saw the replay last night again and Gus Bus was in the end zone refs blew that one on 4th down.They obviously weren't gonna call for a replay at that point but it was six.

 

[zone3cane]

under....

Under is a loss IMO. We need to play our game. We need to come out and hit them in the mouth, let them know we are Miami. Remember that ****.

I disagree....

IMO Miami can beat them in anyway the game turns out.... if its a game where Miami and Florida's offense cant get into a rhythm b/c of both defenses then I think Miami still would have the best chance to win.

 

[rudebuddha]

Game has settled at -3. It will likely sit in that neighborhood all week unless one of the major betting groups gets involved. There are still a couple of them out there and they can have considerable influence, particularly early in the season when the oddsmakers are concerned about soft numbers.

When I was full time in Las Vegas and involved in the betting scene I always knew who was responsible for the moves, whether it was Billy Walters' Computer Boys or Artie Bodendorfer's group or the Poker Boys, etc. Sometimes I'd get advanced warning on who they who going to play, from one of their runners. These days I'm not as well informed. But if you see college betting numbers jumping all over the place, moving a point or more, particularly on a Thursday, it's due to one of the major groups. Their basis might be a computer program or any number of factors. There's no reason to be alarmed or to try to make sense of it. They bet dozens of games and hope to grind a profit.

BTW, currently the money line is relatively low at Florida -145, Miami +125. That's not good value for taking the underdog. A 3 point spread in college football normally offers the underdog +130 or +135 on the money line. I see lots of infrequent bettors try to make a point by refusing the points and taking the money line. That's fine as long as there is corresponding value. In this case you're robbing yourself if you take +125 when +3 points are available, and possibly +3.5 later in the week. The idea is to make the correct choice as often as possible.

My book's line has been strong at 3/-120. I took the game last month when it was 4/-110, so I am obviously in good shape. I think there is a good chance we see a line change. As you know, those computer sims put a bunch of weight in the weather variable. Will be interesting to see if the line moves on late Friday when the weather is exponentially more predictable than now. Objectively, I think this sets up as a good home dog play at 3.

Did a two team parlay with my Canes and Fins. Canes -3 and Fins pick em. Putting my money where my heart, mind, soul and mouth is!

I'm sure it's a misprint, but you didn't give 3 points did you?

 

[Awsi Dooger]

So then what do you think of this week's line? I'm not betting this one either way. Gus Edwards' "failed" TD attempt once again reminded me why I hate to bet on my own teams.

I assumed I would be betting Florida but it didn't come up quite as strongly on my Excel formulas as I anticipated. It's a play for me on my preseason ratings system. Here is that link. Florida was consensus #10 while Miami was #27. A gap like that normally is good enough to cover -3. I particularly love that system in bowl games but it also has application during the season, especially if the theoretically advantaged team is from the superior conference.

http://www.collegefootballpoll.com/preseason_comparison_2013.html

I don't mind betting for or against my favorite teams. The vast majority of what I do is system-based, not subjective, so I merely play what the systems spit out. The secret is to root for your favorite team even if you are betting against them. I don't have any trouble doing that but it causes agitation and disbelief among others. It was a big topic when I was first asked to appear on Las Vegas radio handicapping programs in the late '80s. Nobody could quite believe it. Some of my friends actually called in the program to verify. My rationale is I bet thousands of games per year yet only root for a handful of teams. When there's conflict, my lifelong rooting interests naturally dominate.

IMO it's actually a huge benefit to remain to be a fan, even if you are a bettor. Lots of stuffy Las Vegas regulars try to eliminate it. "I'm a fan of my money." That type of nonsense. Meanwhile, if you remain a fan you are keenly aware of your team's strengths and weaknesses, and what type of matchups are favorable or problematic. For example, I knew the Canes were in big trouble in that Fiesta Bowl meeting against Arizona. I still can't believe we were 3.5 point favorites in that game. With the Dolphins in the Marino era they could pick apart soft teams but the physical run oriented teams simply exploited their weaknesses. I normally could identify a game or two per season in which the Dolphins were in big trouble.

I hope the Canes dismantle and embarrass the Gators, regardless of my bet. Let me emphasize that. I'll be losing my voice and hoping to spring the Orange, Blue and Mostly Yellow line on Gator fans exiting the stadium. Other than the title games and the springboards to those games, this one has more significance than virtually any game in memory, given the likelihood they'll dodge us and we'll be able to mock them for 20ish years.

 

[Sugarhillcane]

I took the game last month when it was 4/-110, so I am obviously in good shape.

Thanks for mentioning that number. I didn't follow the early numbers this summer so I wasn't aware of what it was. For months I assumed it would be -3 or -3.5 on the week of the game.

In the mid and late '90s, the Imperial Palace and Caesar's Palace were the only two joints in Las Vegas that would put up numbers ahead of time, the so-called Marquee Matchups. Jay Kornegay, currently of LHV (Hilton), was running the Imperial Palace at that time. Sometimes I could get 3 or even 7 point middles merely by running across the street. I got spoiled and it's been difficult to deal with "normal" conditions ever since. The Imperial Palace had a sharper line than Caesar's on those early numbers. I remember when Caesar's was still using -13.5 on Florida State hosting the Canes in 1997, when the Imperial Palace was all the way up to -21. I bet the -13.5, popped it again at -14, and didn't even bother with the +21. By gametime weeks later it was up to -22 or -23. That was the 47-0 debacle.

Negged for mentioning the 1997 team.

 

[Boarcane]

Game has settled at -3. It will likely sit in that neighborhood all week unless one of the major betting groups gets involved. There are still a couple of them out there and they can have considerable influence, particularly early in the season when the oddsmakers are concerned about soft numbers.

When I was full time in Las Vegas and involved in the betting scene I always knew who was responsible for the moves, whether it was Billy Walters' Computer Boys or Artie Bodendorfer's group or the Poker Boys, etc. Sometimes I'd get advanced warning on who they who going to play, from one of their runners. These days I'm not as well informed. But if you see college betting numbers jumping all over the place, moving a point or more, particularly on a Thursday, it's due to one of the major groups. Their basis might be a computer program or any number of factors. There's no reason to be alarmed or to try to make sense of it. They bet dozens of games and hope to grind a profit.

BTW, currently the money line is relatively low at Florida -145, Miami +125. That's not good value for taking the underdog. A 3 point spread in college football normally offers the underdog +130 or +135 on the money line. I see lots of infrequent bettors try to make a point by refusing the points and taking the money line. That's fine as long as there is corresponding value. In this case you're robbing yourself if you take +125 when +3 points are available, and possibly +3.5 later in the week. The idea is to make the correct choice as often as possible.

good times. I miss Chip. Go Canes :stormwarning:

 

[Kyle]

I don't bet on what I can't control. But anyone who thinks any college team in the modern era would win any games in any division in the NFL has a ***** loose.

The raiders would stomp a mudhole into Alabama if you took the best players from their last 2 championship teams and made 1 team.

Agree, but in Sheridan's defense he was probably just making use of hyperbole to drive home his point about how much better the Miami program was in comparison to the rest of college football.

 

[Jedi Master Cane]

I'll be honest....since the summer I've been telling myself I was going to exercise the "happiness bet" and put money on Florida. This game simply means too much to me and I know if we lose I'm going to be miserable for a good month....so the way the happiness bet works is you either win money or buy your team a victory. The Gators are the one team I'd pay money to the football gods in order to guarantee victory.

The problem, of course, is that the line didn't get close enough to even for me to pull it off this year. I needed an even line or maybe Florida -1. I really thought this line would move closer to even as the national media continued to hype us up, but that doesn't appear to be happening.

Not gonna risk the worst of both worlds happening and having the Gators somehow win by less than 3......