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Vegas odds are out

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We get to sit back and watch Another one of Miamis worst seasons.. All because the Troll got in the way of what needed to happen.
 
Point spreads are based on perception. If point spreads meant anything, Bama would be 65-0 over their last 5 years.
Most of those spreads noted will move 2-3 points, or more, by the time we play them.
Cincinnati will be an inflated 4-0. If we lose to Nebraska, the line will be right around +2.5. If we beat a mediocre UN team at home, we will be favored.

In any case, give me the Canes vs. Cincy.
Lets check back on this one in 14 weeks.
 
BrianF said:
Over/Under how many pillars will be added this season?
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Just need one to fall towards big Al...
1249580179_fat-woman-falling-in-pool.gif
 
The season can go south very quickly after a loss to a mediocre Cincy team. We all know who has the better coached team that night.
 
I get we all hate Golden, but based on what makes Cincy a 2.5 fav over us? Did anyone not watch the game last year or what am I missing here? Gunner Kiel is not better than Kaaya I don't care what anyone says.
 
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D_G87 said:
I get we all hate Golden, but based on what makes Cincy a 2.5 fav over us? Did anyone not watch the game last year or what am I missing here? Gunner Kiel is not better than Kaaya I don't care what anyone says.
Click to expand...

Switch coaching staffs and UM wins by 4 TDs. Frauden is the worst coach in the ACC. Tubbs will find a way to out coach the clown we have.
 
Era66 said:
D_G87 said:
I get we all hate Golden, but based on what makes Cincy a 2.5 fav over us? Did anyone not watch the game last year or what am I missing here? Gunner Kiel is not better than Kaaya I don't care what anyone says.
Click to expand...

Switch coaching staffs and UM wins by 4 TDs. Frauden is the worst coach in the ACC. Tubbs will find a way to out coach the clown we have.
Click to expand...

Like he did last year?
 
Era66 said:
D_G87 said:
I get we all hate Golden, but based on what makes Cincy a 2.5 fav over us? Did anyone not watch the game last year or what am I missing here? Gunner Kiel is not better than Kaaya I don't care what anyone says.
Click to expand...

Switch coaching staffs and UM wins by 4 TDs. Frauden is the worst coach in the ACC. Tubbs will find a way to out coach the clown we have.
Click to expand...

Kaaya wasn't that good last year. I mean he was pretty good for being a true freshman who came in like August, but he really wasn't actually that good. He was absolutely terrible on 3rd downs, and when he was pressured, and I mean terrible. Kiel is probably a top 10 qb in college.

Edit: Just to be clear, I think Kaaya will take a major step forward this year, and be good, but saying Kaaya is better than Kiel isn't necessarily true. He's got a lot to improve, and lost his LT, RB, WR, and TE; Thats a helluva lot.
 
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This game could go either way really. It wouldn't surprise me if we lost this one after beating Nebraska (false hope win over a team with a new HC/OC/DC) where we think we are better than we are and walk into a trap game.
 
NJshoreCane said:
Point spreads are based on perception. If point spreads meant anything, Bama would be 65-0 over their last 5 years.
Click to expand...

Not exactly. Every pointspread aligns with a money line expectancy. You aren't favored to go undefeated simply because you'll be favored in every game. For example, if a team were going to be exactly a 6 point favorite in all 12 games, the season win over/under would be 8 with juice on the over or 8.5 with juice on the under. That's because a 6 point favorite wins slightly more than 2/3 of the time.

The teams that are atop the college preseason ratings are favored by massive amounts in game after game. That theoretically limits the vulnerability. Only a handful of games carry single digit pointspreads. That's where Miami used to be. Now we're life and death throughout the schedule. Our power rating would have to jump 14 points or more to acquire comfort level and margin for error similar to the truly elite programs. That's been true for years. It's the reason I can't take the overboard predictions seriously, the ones that are absent this season but have been a staple on some Canes boards for years. When somebody proposes a 9-3 record they are basically saying the Canes will average 8.5 point favoritism in every game. That's the burden to win 3 of every 4. While it's certainly possible to string upsets and go 9-3 or better without a huge power rating, like Georgia Tech did last season, it's fragile and undependable in the long run, almost guaranteed to result in a regression to the mean.

You are correct that pointspreads are based on perception. That perception in Las Vegas terms is expressed in power ratings, adjusted by home field edge, if any. That's all that is going on here. As I've posted many times, I won't get excited about the program until our preseason rating is very high. Otherwise you are forced to do heavy lifting against the grain and against logic. I prefer the big picture on my side from the outset. Let everybody else fret the meaningless exceptions.
 
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Awsi Dooger said:
NJshoreCane said:
Point spreads are based on perception. If point spreads meant anything, Bama would be 65-0 over their last 5 years.
Click to expand...

Not exactly. Every pointspread aligns with a money line expectancy. You aren't favored to go undefeated simply because you'll be favored in every game. For example, if a team were going to be exactly a 6 point favorite in all 12 games, the season win over/under would be 8 with juice on the over or 8.5 with juice on the under. That's because a 6 point favorite wins slightly more than 2/3 of the time.

The teams that are atop the college preseason ratings are favored by massive amounts in game after game. That theoretically limits the vulnerability. Only a handful of games carry single digit pointspreads. That's where Miami used to be. Now we're life and death throughout the schedule. Our power rating would have to jump 14 points or more to acquire comfort level and margin for error similar to the truly elite programs. That's been true for years. It's the reason I can't take the overboard predictions seriously, the ones that are absent this season but have been a staple on some Canes boards for years. When somebody proposes a 9-3 record they are basically saying the Canes will average 8.5 point favoritism in every game. That's the burden to win 3 of every 4. While it's certainly possible to string upsets and go 9-3 or better without a huge power rating, like Georgia Tech did last season, it's fragile and undependable in the long run, almost guaranteed to result in a regression to the mean.

You are correct that pointspreads are based on perception. That perception in Las Vegas terms is expressed in power ratings, adjusted by home field edge, if any. That's all that is going on here. As I've posted many times, I won't get excited about the program until our preseason rating is very high. Otherwise you are forced to do heavy lifting against the grain and against logic. I prefer the big picture on my side from the outset. Let everybody else fret the meaningless exceptions.
Click to expand...

My comment was in response to those who think it's a fore gone conclusion that Miami will lose simply because Vegas put out these early lines.

You get my "perception" comment. I will never bet against the Canes, but there was some easy money to be had in the mid-00's when the perception of how good the Canes were, and the betting lines, were a lot higher than they should have been.
 
NJshoreCane said:
Awsi Dooger said:
NJshoreCane said:
Point spreads are based on perception. If point spreads meant anything, Bama would be 65-0 over their last 5 years.
Click to expand...

Not exactly. Every pointspread aligns with a money line expectancy. You aren't favored to go undefeated simply because you'll be favored in every game. For example, if a team were going to be exactly a 6 point favorite in all 12 games, the season win over/under would be 8 with juice on the over or 8.5 with juice on the under. That's because a 6 point favorite wins slightly more than 2/3 of the time.

The teams that are atop the college preseason ratings are favored by massive amounts in game after game. That theoretically limits the vulnerability. Only a handful of games carry single digit pointspreads. That's where Miami used to be. Now we're life and death throughout the schedule. Our power rating would have to jump 14 points or more to acquire comfort level and margin for error similar to the truly elite programs. That's been true for years. It's the reason I can't take the overboard predictions seriously, the ones that are absent this season but have been a staple on some Canes boards for years. When somebody proposes a 9-3 record they are basically saying the Canes will average 8.5 point favoritism in every game. That's the burden to win 3 of every 4. While it's certainly possible to string upsets and go 9-3 or better without a huge power rating, like Georgia Tech did last season, it's fragile and undependable in the long run, almost guaranteed to result in a regression to the mean.

You are correct that pointspreads are based on perception. That perception in Las Vegas terms is expressed in power ratings, adjusted by home field edge, if any. That's all that is going on here. As I've posted many times, I won't get excited about the program until our preseason rating is very high. Otherwise you are forced to do heavy lifting against the grain and against logic. I prefer the big picture on my side from the outset. Let everybody else fret the meaningless exceptions.
Click to expand...

My comment was in response to those who think it's a fore gone conclusion that Miami will lose simply because Vegas put out these early lines.

You get my "perception" comment. I will never bet against the Canes, but there was some easy money to be had in the mid-00's when the perception of how good the Canes were, and the betting lines, were a lot higher than they should have been.
Click to expand...

There was tons of easy money betting against the Canes the last 2 years. I just can't bring myself to do it.
 
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