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Vegas Insider.com pick Miami to beat FSU this year!

Cane Dynasty

Cane Dynasty

Thunderdome Survivor
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Feb 27, 2013
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Brian Edwards Vegasinsider.com Handicapper. 12 years in the business. Gayturd grad.

http://www.vegasinsider.com/college-football/story.cfm/story/1520921

Florida State
Florida State makes 4 team playoff -350 (Bet $350 to win $100)
Not selected for 4 team playoff +250 (Bet $100 to win $250)

2014 Schedule and Projections
8/30 vs. Oklahoma State (from Arlington, Texas) - WIN
9/6 vs. THE CITADEL - WIN
9/20 vs. CLEMSON - WIN
9/27 at North Carolina State - WIN
10/4 vs. WAKE FOREST - WIN
10/11 at Syracuse - WIN
10/18 vs. NOTRE DAME - WIN
10/30 at Louisville (Thursday) - WIN
11/8 vs. VIRGINIA - WIN
11/15 at Miami, Fl. - LOSS
11/22 vs. BOSTON COLLEGE - WIN
11/29 vs. FLORIDA - WIN

["Betting Notes: For this prop, I believe the 5/2 odds are generous. I believe Florida State will go 11-1 and play in the ACC Championship. However, I feel that the one loss will come late in the season at Miami and it will drop the Seminoles in the rankings. Even if they win the ACC, I believe the Pac-12, Big Ten, SEC and an at-large team would beat them out for one of the four spots. Will Jameis Winston stay healthy? If he doesn't, then all of a sudden several games marked as wins could go differently. The last time FSU went to Louisville on a Thursday night, it came home with a loss. Even home games against Florida and Clemson would be interesting if Winston isn't 100-percent healthy. No for a 5/2 return is the way to go."]


We are currently at 100-1 to win the NCAA football playoffs this year.
 
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Dwinstitles said:
That dude doesnt follow recruiting I bet or hes dbc's uncle.
Click to expand...

But he does do this for a living.
He and his family eat because of his skills as a handicapper.

You haters are incredible. You are so blind in your hate that you have to denigrate anything positive.

Going to be a tough year for the haters. A lot of you might have to swallow a **** and accept that the coaches know much more about recruiting and coaching than you do.
 
rudebuddha said:
Dwinstitles said:
That dude doesnt follow recruiting I bet or hes dbc's uncle.
Click to expand...

But he does do this for a living.
He and his family eat because of his skills as a handicapper.

You haters are incredible. You are so blind in your hate that you have to denigrate anything positive.

Going to be a tough year for the haters. A lot of you might have to swallow a **** and accept that the coaches know much more about recruiting and coaching than you do.
Click to expand...

That's all I'm saying. This guy makes his living doing this stuff. He has for the last 12 years.
 
Miami will have the best secondary in the ACC, and the best secondary on FSU's schedule. An argument could be made for Florida but **** Florida.
 
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canecountry3 said:
Miami will have the best secondary in the ACC, and the best secondary on FSU's schedule. An argument could be made for Florida but **** Florida.
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Lmao. FSU had the #1 pass defense last year and returns 3 out of 5 starters from their secondary (base 3-3-5 defense). Sure they lose Joyner and Brooks but their replacements are really good...Hunter was the starting nickel 2 years ago and Andrews led the team in interceptions last year as a true freshman.

And lastly, what fvk have been smoking that makes you think Dorito is going to drastically change our #92 ranked pass defense into something spectacular like FSU and Florida?
 
We have zero chance. And 100-1 to win it all is fvckin awful for Golden's 4th year here. Right up there with every other mediocre, middle of the road BCS conference team. Whippity Doo
 
After living in Las Vegas and betting sports for so long, I can quickly identify what is going on here. Wise guys in that town love to bet against the defending champion, in any sport. In this case the guy isn't really picking Miami as much as he noticed the juicy plus money (+250) on that prop of Florida State not to make the 4-team playoff, and is scrambling to make a specific case for it.

I guarantee he didn't know anything about Florida State's schedule once he got tempted by the prop. Then he started looking at the schedule but had trouble identifying a loss. Keep in mind he not only needs a loss, but one that is late enough to bump Florida State out of the top 4 and keep them there. He doesn't dare forecast 2 losses, in which case the timing wouldn't matter. To fit his theory, we were the only game that made sense, a roader very late in the season. Even a loss in that game wouldn't necessarily bump Florida State. They would have built up enormous benefit of a doubt via a 20+ game winning streak. But he's got to rationalize it somehow, so we are the designated spoiler. Our roster and coach and everything else don't enter the picture at all.

In the old days before the internet, that guy would have merely written a print column in a weekly sports magazine and briefly mentioned that he liked the +250 on Florida State not to be in the playoffs. He wouldn't have needed an explanation. Nowadays with online writers asked to come up with material daily, if not multiple times per day, you get stuff like this, and smack in the middle of the offseason.
 
Oklahoma State, Clemson, ND, Miami, and Florida could all put an L on FSU'S récord.

You all are acting like Fisher has built a powerhouse like Saban has at Bama. He hasn't. While still a top 10 team next years FSU team will not be as good as last years plus their schedule looks to be harder.
FSU loses 2 games next season.
 
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CaneAlmighty said:
Oklahoma State, Clemson, ND, Miami, and Florida could all put an L on FSU'S récord.

You all are acting like Fisher has built a powerhouse like Saban has at Bama. He hasn't. While still a top 10 team next years FSU team will not be as good as last years plus their schedule looks to be harder.
FSU loses 2 games next season.
Click to expand...

Yep, that's a legit schedule right there.
 
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Awsi Dooger said:
After living in Las Vegas and betting sports for so long, I can quickly identify what is going on here. Wise guys in that town love to bet against the defending champion, in any sport. In this case the guy isn't really picking Miami as much as he noticed the juicy plus money (+250) on that prop of Florida State not to make the 4-team playoff, and is scrambling to make a specific case for it.

I guarantee he didn't know anything about Florida State's schedule once he got tempted by the prop. Then he started looking at the schedule but had trouble identifying a loss. Keep in mind he not only needs a loss, but one that is late enough to bump Florida State out of the top 4 and keep them there. He doesn't dare forecast 2 losses, in which case the timing wouldn't matter. To fit his theory, we were the only game that made sense, a roader very late in the season. Even a loss in that game wouldn't necessarily bump Florida State. They would have built up enormous benefit of a doubt via a 20+ game winning streak. But he's got to rationalize it somehow, so we are the designated spoiler. Our roster and coach and everything else don't enter the picture at all.

In the old days before the internet, that guy would have merely written a print column in a weekly sports magazine and briefly mentioned that he liked the +250 on Florida State not to be in the playoffs. He wouldn't have needed an explanation. Nowadays with online writers asked to come up with material daily, if not multiple times per day, you get stuff like this, and smack in the middle of the offseason.
Click to expand...

Interesting - good understanding of the dynamics, thanks for posting.
 
CaneAlmighty said:
Oklahoma State, Clemson, ND, Miami, and Florida could all put an L on FSU'S récord.

You all are acting like Fisher has built a powerhouse like Saban has at Bama. He hasn't. While still a top 10 team next years FSU team will not be as good as last years plus their schedule looks to be harder.
FSU loses 2 games next season.
Click to expand...

They only had one close regular season game last year. They whooped the **** out of everyone else. Clemson is going to be significantly worse losing Boyd and Watkins. I think OSU and us will be their toughest games next year.
 
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