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Upon Further Review: Manny Diaz as DC

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Here are some stats to consider: YPP combining 1st, 2d downs. That’s what you face at third down.

3rd down %. That’s did you get a fresh set of downs.

3rd down YPP - that picks up big plays.

Redzone metrics (points and tds)

Points per game

Points per opponent possession

% of opponent possessions that end in something other than a score (punt, downs, TO)

The same (% non-scoring) broken into field position starting groups, so how’d you do on short fields, medium and long?

Turnovers

If negative plays is the focus of the O, I’d like to see it tied to something meaningful, or conversely, correlated to issues. If you’re good in negative plays, what are the risks? Give up big plays? Can check. Bad third down conversion? Can check.
 
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JD08 said:
I had asked about it because of the outliers that result from having one long run figured into YPP.

Lance pointed out that success rate has a similar problem because it weighs a 3 yard gain on 3rd and 2 the same as a 75 yard run on 3rd and 2.

The only issue I can see with it is that a 4 yard gain on 1st down followed by a 3 yard gain on 2nd down followed by a 4 yard gain on 3rd down only has a success rate of 33%, but that fails to show the impact of gaining a fresh set of downs.

www.canesinsight.com

Upon Further Review: Manny Diaz as DC

I judge Manny by the eye test. How does Miami look against good offenses? Not very good. On the other side Miami usually looks good defensively against the weaker teams (Duke last year) padding statistics making the defense look statistically better. The attacking style works against less...
www.canesinsight.com www.canesinsight.com
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Agreed, and that's why I originally referenced SP+, because that accounts for success rate as well as explosive rate, so in your example, that 75 yard run on 3rd and 2 is factored much more than just a successful play, which I agree with you, makes sense to look at. Of course.
 
NJshoreCane said:
Is that Dillon?
If you remember, they threw the football a lot early.
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Yeah. I haven't watched the game since besides breaking down Dillon tape for the draft/fantasy football. Miami couldn't tackle him and I'm guessing they threw the ball because of stacked boxes dedicated to slowing down Dillon.

Regardless he's a generational talent imo and college defenses aren't supposed to have easy answers for that. Whatever the reason you're correct in pointing out that Miami's defense was exposed in that game. I'm sure others might point to the Wisconsin game(s) but I remember them making a lot of big boy throw/catches that are hard to blame on coaching.
 
HighSeas said:
Yeah. I haven't watched the game since besides breaking down Dillon tape for the draft/fantasy football. Miami couldn't tackle him and I'm guessing they threw the ball because of stacked boxes dedicated to slowing down Dillon.

Regardless he's a generational talent imo and college defenses aren't supposed to have easy answers for that. Whatever the reason you're correct in pointing out that Miami's defense was exposed in that game. I'm sure others might point to the Wisconsin game(s) but I remember them making a lot of big boy throw/catches that are hard to blame on coaching.
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That game was on the offense

We were down 17-14 before the half and Rosier misses a wide open Thomas for a TD to go up at half

10 points came when Rosief threw 2horrible INTS and gave BC the ball in our red zone

We scored zero points in the 2nd half
 
Jedi Master Cane said:
Conversely, the educated rational fan would simply say one thing to anyone who thinks people are being too negative with regards to Manny.

We are what, 3 years into his tenure? In those 3 years, he has now fired BOTH his initial coordinator hires. The ability to surround yourself with quality people is probably THE most important trait in a head coach.

Listen, the Don Bailey Jr apologist admin *** kissing crowd has been using the "the fans are ridiculous" argument for two decades now, and for two decades they've been wrong. It's akin to the ostrich burying his ******* head in the sand and ignoring everything going on around him.

A rational fan would say Manny is on thin ice. He's made some REALLY bad decisions in a REALLY short amount of time. He's also had some BAD, INEXCUSEABLE losses including losing to the cross town "rival", which may be one of the low points of this program.

And that's not even getting into the fact his track record as a DC is spotty, AT BEST. You don't get fired for a lack of performance, AS A COORDINATOR, and have that NOT carry forward on your resume.

You can be "cautiously optimistic" if you choose, but circumstances and sample size say it's not necessarily merited. I'm just waiting for someone to bring up the "lingering impacts of the cloud" in this thread so we can pile it on the laundry list of excuses.
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Well said Jedi and just more mandatory reading for the “Ostrich Four” of @Go Canes!! @OrangeBowlMagic @HurricaneHauk and @puertorricane . Hopefully they’ll take there heads out of the sand long enough to read it. Lol

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Jedi Master Cane said:
That's where we disagree and our interpretation of the data veers in different directions. A guy like Trob isn't going to be here long anyways. My fear is Manny beats up on the bad teams just enough to get an an extension and then we're right back in purgatory. Our schedule is always going to give a mediocre coach the chance to win just enough games to satiate our incompetent, apathetic administration.

My opinion on his hire is the same as the day his hiring was announced. I don't believe in criticizing decisions after the fact. You judge a decision by the set of data points available AT THE MOMENT of the decision since none of us have a crystal ball. I'm trying to be as fair as possible here but this is going to go down as ANOTHER University of Miami head coach who gets fired here, and can't get another head coaching job anywhere.
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JD08 said:
If Ed Orgeron can win a championship with the right combination of staff and players, then there's no reason Manny can't. The odds of Blake James making a home run hire to replace Manny is slim to none so the choice is to hope Manny hits the Orgeron luck or just give up.
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This is absolutely a ridiculous statement. Eddie O first off has forgotten more football then the espn wonder boy will ever know regardless of how much tape he edits in his next job back at espn where it all started for manure. Second off Ed would never, ever allow the kind of linebacker and CB recruiting manure signed off on at Miami. And thirdly Orgeron would never have his defensive line and defense as a whole play in a mickey mouse scheme with NO gap integrity, fundamentals, principles or any discipline whatsoever! Because regardless of you think about Eddie O, he’s a **** of a position coach, a **** of a recruiter/evaluator, been a successful intern coach taking over for a failed HC and is a national championship HC. And they’re is no taking away any of that for him! Manure is literally none of those things and yet you think manure is going to catch lighting in a bottle and win a NC? Lmao Manure corches is way to 3 losses minimum with that 2019 LSU team. With Manure at the helm they lose to Florida, auburn and alabama as those three teams run down his throat through his **** all game. And I didn’t even put UGA as a loss because with manure that LSU team doesn’t even sniff the sec title game but if they did then UGA would also run the ball down manures throat through is **** all game which would be loss number 4 for him. You should seriously be ashamed of your post there JD, ashamed to compare manure to actually coach who has succeeded in this game at every level from player to coach versus an ESPN stat nerd who never even played the game and owns the two WORST losses in the HISTORY of Miami and Texas. But I do get your concerns about flake James but rest assured if manure fails, which the odds are he will, then blake is gone too for paying 4 million dollars to temple to keep manure in the building in all of about 4 hours. 🤮
 
BoxingRobes said:
To be fair...its not like Miami can't find their Joe Brady...guy was a coffee runner for the Saints and LSU was paying him a little over 400K. You just need to identify and get'em. Money isn't that serious.

Guys like Sean Gleeson when he was hired away from Princeton to Okie State was making 500K, There was a story of Manny being interested in him for Temple. Mike Yurcich when he was in his first year at Okie State was making 400K. You just got to identify these guys.

Miami also was in the running for Dave Aranda (instead of hiring Manny Diaz under Richt) but LSU went over the top...Miami was offering a significant salary for him and we were close to getting him, if you recall that story.

Its the position coaches that, IMO, Miami struggles to afford.

However...Justice, Likens, T-Rob, Travis Williams...thats a nice mix of "Identified" (Justice) and well regarded position coaches...so...maybe things are changing, idk. We'll see.
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I remember that and god I wish we would have gotten aranda for the simple fact that we wouldn’t be stuck with this loser, fraud of a head coach that makes Radios “deer in the headlights” expression during games look a lot more like Bill Belichick dominating. Dudes a fraud and like every fired HC from Miami over the last 20 years will never find or be offered another head coaching job again. And UTSA doesn’t count before the slurpers start screaming it at the top of their lungs! Smh
 
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Jedi Master Cane said:
Most important things going forward are putting an AD in place who is actually competent, and then letting him hire a good head coach. I agree that quality assistants can be found from time to time on the cheap, but that usually requires competent leadership in place to unearth those gems.

Like I mentioned in an earlier post, the ability to surround yourself with good people is one of the most important traits a head coach can have. Manny has now fired both coordinators in as many years.
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Amen Jedi and this is really our only hope of being a competitive program again. The new AD needs to be a football guy, not a ticket salesman and needs to have autonomy to hire and fire who ever he wants to clean out the bureaucratic cancer infecting the Hecht to Intact his vision of winning and nothing else. No more PC hires and virtue signaling! Hire the best people for the job regardless of who or what they are. Highsmith or Gino would be good choices of the top of my head but of course they’re is plenty of ADs out there that our top quality that we’ve never even heard of that are in the mold of Jankovich. I also think getting a president that actually wants to win in athletics as much as academics will help too. Hopefully shirtless boy Frenk is shown the door asap and they hire a tough SOB like the admiral. I think if that happened we can become competitive again, if not and the same old virtue signaling PC “make a wish” hires are still the law of the land then the middle of the ACC will continue to live.
 
NicKane said:
This is absolutely a ridiculous statement. Eddie O first off has forgotten more football then the espn wonder boy will ever know regardless of how much tape he edits in his next job back at espn where it all started for manure. Second off Ed would never, ever allow the kind of linebacker and CB recruiting manure signed off on at Miami. And thirdly Orgeron would never have his defensive line and defense as a whole play in a mickey mouse scheme with NO gap integrity, fundamentals, principles or any discipline whatsoever! Because regardless of you think about Eddie O, he’s a **** of a position coach, a **** of a recruiter/evaluator, been a successful intern coach taking over for a failed HC and is a national championship HC. And they’re is no taking away any of that for him! Manure is literally none of those things and yet you think manure is going to catch lighting in a bottle and win a NC? Lmao Manure corches is way to 3 losses minimum with that 2019 LSU team. With Manure at the helm they lose to Florida, auburn and alabama as those three teams run down his throat through his **** all game. And I didn’t even put UGA as a loss because with manure that LSU team doesn’t even sniff the sec title game but if they did then UGA would also run the ball down manures throat through is **** all game which would be loss number 4 for him. You should seriously be ashamed of your post there JD, ashamed to compare manure to actually coach who has succeeded in this game at every level from player to coach versus an ESPN stat nerd who never even played the game and owns the two WORST losses in the HISTORY of Miami and Texas. But I do get your concerns about flake James but rest assured if manure fails, which the odds are he will, then blake is gone too for paying 4 million dollars to temple to keep manure in the building in all of about 4 hours. 🤮
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You must be the blonde in the picture. Ed Orgeron would not have the championship he does without the coordinators and position coaches he had. By himself, he is not one to put things together like Saban or Meyer.

Your hate for Manny is so strong that anything other than outright condemnation is blasphemy to you. If you can't see that my point was about the possibility of a coach winning with the right combination of assistants, then I can't help you.
 
Lance Roffers said:
I didn’t because I don’t have reliable data or even a suggestion from Manny that be even called any defensive plays.
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When rewatching games I noticed Diaz rarely had a play sheet in his hand. All he was doing is chiming in, not calling all of the plays.
 
OrangeBowlMagic said:
I did basically this same exact thread a couple weeks ago. Great job, Lance, you dug deeper and presented it better. But the bottom line remains, nearly 90% of the teams we played while Manny was the DC had a BELOW AVERAGE game on offense. Sometimes well below average, but almost every single week, the offense we played put up numbers below their average. It just makes no sense to me how people could have really watched 2016 - 2018 and say Manny is a ****** DC. If you think he's not elite, that's fine. But he was ABSOLUTELY a high end DC here in those 3 seasons. Thankfully data exists and it can poo-poo on nonsense opinions.
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It is really quite simple. There are a lot of dumb people around.
 
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Lance Roffers said:
How would the same variables not apply to everyone else as well?

TFL are good. Limiting explosive plays is a good thing. The defense you described in your post would be one of the best defenses in football. Why? Forcing a team to convert 3rd & 6 over and over is what you’re looking to do. Forcing a team to never drop a pass. Never get a holding penalty, never mishandle a snap, never slip.

That’s what you’re looking to do on defense.

I created a metric that looks back at where a team gets the ball and assigns points to that field position. Then looks at turnovers created and has a value etc. Do that for both offense and defense (adding any special teams TD’s) and you get what a score “should’ve” been and then can gauge luck or sequencing variance etc.

Miami did pretty well in that as well.

What fans should understand is defense is hard. No one shuts down opponents anymore. It relies on a ton of variance and luck. I’ll run the numbers in what I define as “big games or good teams” sometime soon, but it’s hard to wrap your head around the fact that stopping an offense often relies on luck or the offense ******** up.

One of the biggest plays in the history of Miami defensive football was a lucky play. The Ed Reed return against Boston College. A tipped pass and ball sticking in a DL hands. Difference between winning and losing could’ve been as simple as the ball bouncing our way.
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I'm not suggesting that the defense I described isn't a good defense. I'm merely saying that perhaps Manny won't look as good when compared against some of the best defenses/defensive coordinators (your point of comparison, not mine) if another metric was used to evaluate his performance as defensive coordinator.

My critique is that YPP, as applied to Manny's style of D, might not capture some important distinctions between our defense under Manny and, say, Clemson's defense under Venables or LSU's defense under Aranda. I think your basic retort, as I understand from your other posts, is that YPP tends to do a very good job at capturing overall success because it highly correlates with other stats, and while some more advanced stats can flesh out some finer distinctions, the difference is marginal compared to the work required to construct a more advanced analysis. I think you're probably right.

My only hesitation is that YPP is an average, and averages, as you know, can have very different spreads. A team can surrender 50 yards on 14 plays (and a touchdown) and the YPP would be roughly 3.5. Another team can surrender 18 yards on 4 plays and the YPP would be 4.5 (11 yards on first down, followed be 9 more yards total on first through third down... the opposing team punts). YPP would favor the team that surrendered a touchdown over the team that got a stop. Or you can have defenses with similar YPP, but one defense is more consistent and the data is tightly centered around the mean whereas another defense is more erratic and the mean/median split is meaningful. Given YPP's correlation with other stats, this is probably unlikely. For a defense that creates lots of negative plays (like ours), however, this scenario is not out of the realm of possibility.
 
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HurricaneHauk said:
Accept the bet *****
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Accept Manures cack in your *****, *****! Oh wait, my bad, it’s already there. Lol or is it your tongue cleaning his rim after he drops some manure in the toilet and on the field? Maybe a combo of both huh sport? Lmao 🖕
 
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