TriStarCane
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- Jun 13, 2012
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I believe in the Blue Chip Ratio theory, mostly because it’s been proven as a strong indicator of rosters capable of winning a national title based on roster make up. Okay, so good news and bad news. The bad news is based on our current roster, we are not going to win a national championship in 2019 (shocker). Good news is that we increased our overall ratio year over year, increased the blue chip ratio for all but two of our position groups and increased the average star rating of all positions but two this cycle.
** Everything below is based on the 247 Composite rating and uses their actual ranking (e.g. I didn’t put Brevin as a 5* even though we all know he’s a 5*). I also used the position they are coming to play (Joyner is playing LB here even though he’s listed as a DE on 247).
- We aren’t winning a national title unless we have a Heisman caliber season from someone. Our overall Blue Chip Ratio is 46%; I don’t know if Pastor Richt uses this ratio (doubtful), but he wasn’t wrong when he said we needed one more class to compete for a title. We are a similar ratio to Oklahoma from last year (I think they were around 48%), but they had Baker Mayfield and we do not.
- Offensively, we have a championship level roster. We are at 51% blue chip ratio and we average 3.56 stars per position. To no one’s surprise, our running back room and wide receiver rooms are sick (57%, 3.71 star average and 64%, 3.63 star average respectively). Pretty pretty good.
- Our worst offensive position group is our OL, but it’s being dragged down by the left over Golden Gang and our transfers– our overall average star rating is 3.4 with a 40% ratio, but our last two classes have a 50% ratio and 3.50 average.
- Defensively… it’s not good, boss. Our Blue Chip ratio is 40% with an average star ranking of 3.4. and our best position group on paper is our, believe it or not, corner back room that averages 3.66 stars per player and has a 67% ratio. On average, it’s actually a better room than our WR room… but that doesn’t excuse missing who we missed on.
- **** gets dicey in the front seven: DE ratio is nice at 60% and an average of 3.6, but consider that last year we were 7 deep and this year we are at 5 deep, including a converted-unconverted-converted tight end in Scott Patchan and a true freshman.
- Defensive Tackle is at 33% and 3.33 star average, which is just not good enough to win big. Sorry.
- The worst position group on the team is the linebacker position and it’s not close. We have a paltry ratio of 20% and the only two 4 star prospects at the position are juniors this year. We average 3.2 stars per player (the second lowest on the team is DT at 3.33… see where I’m going with this?). If you’re not strong up the middle, you’re not strong.
- Our safety group is only at 38% and has a few converted tweeners back there for an average rating of 3.38. After Jaquan, we are probably looking at playing the freshman ASAP.
Basically, we better hope we score a **** ton of points. It is going to be worse next year, too. We lose 20% of our 4 star players on defense next year, so Manny and Co are REALLY banking on our 3 linebackers to play their senior years. Given the bull**** we go through with early entrants, that seems rather foolish.
Based only on the numbers, we have a top 20 roster in the country, but we are not going to compete for a national title or a conference title this year. Not with Clemson getting who they get back and who they signed and obviously there are the Bamas, Georgias, Ohio States of the world to remind us what elite recruiting looks like. I do think, however, that we are building a championship roster even if it’s not at the pace I want.
TL;DR – we aint ready, but maybe next year.
** Everything below is based on the 247 Composite rating and uses their actual ranking (e.g. I didn’t put Brevin as a 5* even though we all know he’s a 5*). I also used the position they are coming to play (Joyner is playing LB here even though he’s listed as a DE on 247).
- We aren’t winning a national title unless we have a Heisman caliber season from someone. Our overall Blue Chip Ratio is 46%; I don’t know if Pastor Richt uses this ratio (doubtful), but he wasn’t wrong when he said we needed one more class to compete for a title. We are a similar ratio to Oklahoma from last year (I think they were around 48%), but they had Baker Mayfield and we do not.
- Offensively, we have a championship level roster. We are at 51% blue chip ratio and we average 3.56 stars per position. To no one’s surprise, our running back room and wide receiver rooms are sick (57%, 3.71 star average and 64%, 3.63 star average respectively). Pretty pretty good.
- Our worst offensive position group is our OL, but it’s being dragged down by the left over Golden Gang and our transfers– our overall average star rating is 3.4 with a 40% ratio, but our last two classes have a 50% ratio and 3.50 average.
- Defensively… it’s not good, boss. Our Blue Chip ratio is 40% with an average star ranking of 3.4. and our best position group on paper is our, believe it or not, corner back room that averages 3.66 stars per player and has a 67% ratio. On average, it’s actually a better room than our WR room… but that doesn’t excuse missing who we missed on.
- **** gets dicey in the front seven: DE ratio is nice at 60% and an average of 3.6, but consider that last year we were 7 deep and this year we are at 5 deep, including a converted-unconverted-converted tight end in Scott Patchan and a true freshman.
- Defensive Tackle is at 33% and 3.33 star average, which is just not good enough to win big. Sorry.
- The worst position group on the team is the linebacker position and it’s not close. We have a paltry ratio of 20% and the only two 4 star prospects at the position are juniors this year. We average 3.2 stars per player (the second lowest on the team is DT at 3.33… see where I’m going with this?). If you’re not strong up the middle, you’re not strong.
- Our safety group is only at 38% and has a few converted tweeners back there for an average rating of 3.38. After Jaquan, we are probably looking at playing the freshman ASAP.
Basically, we better hope we score a **** ton of points. It is going to be worse next year, too. We lose 20% of our 4 star players on defense next year, so Manny and Co are REALLY banking on our 3 linebackers to play their senior years. Given the bull**** we go through with early entrants, that seems rather foolish.
Based only on the numbers, we have a top 20 roster in the country, but we are not going to compete for a national title or a conference title this year. Not with Clemson getting who they get back and who they signed and obviously there are the Bamas, Georgias, Ohio States of the world to remind us what elite recruiting looks like. I do think, however, that we are building a championship roster even if it’s not at the pace I want.
TL;DR – we aint ready, but maybe next year.
