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UF’s OL concerns

I know the author of this tweet was cracking up when he sent it (because he's a Miami alum)...

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IndayArtHauz said:
I’m not saying I’d take their WR group over ours, but it’s one of the only position groups that you could make the case for either and I’d listen.
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They believe that their WR and RB would both be starters at UM. They all have concern re their OL.
 
I’m actually going to give Mertz some more credit than I initially intended to. Once I finish my full analysis, I plan on posting a write up about a week or so from the game. Here’s a small snippet.

Mertz had a 20:3 TD to INT ratio in 2023, and finished with double the big-time throws vs. turnover-worthy plays. This essentially means exceptional pass plays vs. plays that should result in turnovers a majority of the time (granted, it’s subjective, but pretty much within a pass or two).. By far the best season of his collegiate career to date (not saying much considering the previous years were trash), but he had 15 big-time throws vs 2 turnover-worthy plays on attempts of over 10 yards. When he does go deep, he’s pretty confident in it.

Now his issue is that he doesn’t push it downfield enough, and tends to lean on the conservative side.

***Obviously they have major issues at OL***- they were 15th in sacks in 2022, but 115th in 2023. Shuffling plenty of guys around + transfers, sliding Damien George from tackle to guard. Center is probably most solidified but Reports are no bueno along the OL thus far.

That plus their yards per carry dropped from 5.8 in 2022 to 4.1 in 2023, and they lost Etienne (4.1 yards after contact on 124 attempts) and now Montrell is banged up. So now you’ve got an OL that significantly regressed from 2022 to 2023 in both run and pass blocking, and is being shuffled around plus relying on a G5 transfer from San Diego State to elevate and stabilize the room.
 
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WeBallinBoyz said:
I’m actually going to give Mertz some more credit than I initially intended to. Once I finish my full analysis, I plan on posting a write up about a week or so from the game. Here’s a small snippet.

Mertz had a 20:3 TD to INT ratio in 2023, and finished with double the big-time throws vs. turnover-worthy plays. This essentially means exceptional pass plays vs. plays that should result in turnovers a majority of the time (granted, it’s subjective, but pretty much within a pass or two).. By far the best season of his collegiate career to date (not saying much considering the previous years were trash), but he had 15 big-time throws vs 2 turnover-worthy plays on attempts of over 10 yards. When he does go deep, he’s pretty confident in it.

Now his issue is that he doesn’t push it downfield enough, and tends to lean on the conservative side.

***Obviously they have major issues at OL***- they were 15th in sacks in 2022, but 115th in 2023. Shuffling plenty of guys around + transfers, sliding Damien George from tackle to guard. Center is probably most solidified but Reports are no bueno along the OL thus far.

That plus their yards per carry dropped from 5.8 in 2022 to 4.1 in 2023, and they lost Etienne (4.1 yards after contact on 124 attempts) and now Montrell is banged up. So now you’ve got an OL that significantly regressed from 2022 to 2023 in both run and pass blocking, and is being shuffled around plus relying on a G5 transfer from San Diego State to elevate and stabilize the room.
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Gators have undersold the impact loss of ETN just for those chunk plays. They are all in on the Ja’Kobi kid and Treyaun developing but Montrell was their workhorse who knew that offense inside and out.
 
WeBallinBoyz said:
I’m actually going to give Mertz some more credit than I initially intended to. Once I finish my full analysis, I plan on posting a write up about a week or so from the game. Here’s a small snippet.

Mertz had a 20:3 TD to INT ratio in 2023, and finished with double the big-time throws vs. turnover-worthy plays. This essentially means exceptional pass plays vs. plays that should result in turnovers a majority of the time (granted, it’s subjective, but pretty much within a pass or two).. By far the best season of his collegiate career to date (not saying much considering the previous years were trash), but he had 15 big-time throws vs 2 turnover-worthy plays on attempts of over 10 yards. When he does go deep, he’s pretty confident in it.

Now his issue is that he doesn’t push it downfield enough, and tends to lean on the conservative side. Obviously they have major issues at OL - they were 15th in sacks in 2022, but 115th in 2023. Shuffling plenty of guys around + transfers, sliding Damien George from tackle to guard. Center is probably most solidified but Reports are no bueno along the OL thus far.

That plus their yards per carry dropped from 5.8 in 2022 to 4.1 in 2023, and they lost Etienne (4.1 yards after contact on 124 attempts) and now Montrell is banged up.
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Good post but remember sacks count as QB rushes.

So in 2022, they were very low in sacks allowed, and Richardson was running the ball.

In 2023, instead of Richardson avoiding sacks and/or running, Mertz is going backwards.

You really need to look at the YPC of the players, not the team:

2022 ETN averaged 6.09 a carry, and Johnson averaged 5.43
2023 ETN averaged 5.75 a carry, and Johnson averaged 5.38

Pretty close, and you can probably say at least some of that is the defense not having to account for the QB as a runner.

I've said it all summer and I will continue to say it, this is one of the ~3 best offenses we'll see all year. And not because they have a Top 20 offense or anything, but this schedule is doo-doo cheeks and the gator offense is not bad. Mertz is a pretty decent college QB. He's not going to go Jeff Driskel in 2016 out there in a couple weeks.

So for the people in this thread and others just thinking our defense is going to completely suffocate them and hold them to 10 points or some ****, while I'd love it, I don't think that's a very likely outcome.

They didn't have a single game last year (besides FSU when Mertz was hurt) where they averaged less than 5.21 yards per play. Miami had 4. (Full disclosure, 3 of them were started by Emory or Jacurri and the other was UVA).

My main focus up there will be:

1) How do they replace Pearsall? He was a Round 1 wide receiver in the NFL draft, and by far their main downfield threat. Do they put Wilson in that role, and give the short **** to someone else? Do they let Wilson continue in that role, and give Pearsall's role to Badger? They have players and options

2) Who fills Johnson's shoes? Over the past 2 seasons, ETN and Johnson have combined for 556 carries. Every other RB on the roster has had 86. ETN is in Athens filming Tokyo Drift: **** Your Cousin Part 6, Johnson is hurt. Do they have another back on the roster that can hurt us by getting more than what's blocked?

3) The pass pro. They ran it well last year, as I mentioned. But they couldn't protect Mertz at all, and they mainly played in a phonebooth as a result, with Pearsall the only guy doing anything down the field. Here comes Bain, Mesidor, Alston, Baron, CMC, and the No ******* Around Crew. When it's 3rd and 8, is their front 5 gonna give Mertz a snowball's chance in **** to convert?
 
WeBallinBoyz said:
I’m actually going to give Mertz some more credit than I initially intended to. Once I finish my full analysis, I plan on posting a write up about a week or so from the game. Here’s a small snippet.

Mertz had a 20:3 TD to INT ratio in 2023, and finished with double the big-time throws vs. turnover-worthy plays. This essentially means exceptional pass plays vs. plays that should result in turnovers a majority of the time (granted, it’s subjective, but pretty much within a pass or two).. By far the best season of his collegiate career to date (not saying much considering the previous years were trash), but he had 15 big-time throws vs 2 turnover-worthy plays on attempts of over 10 yards. When he does go deep, he’s pretty confident in it.
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I don't really care that much about "ratio" stuff, as the ratio is skewed by his low number of INTs (and/or "should have been" INTs).

The reality is that he throws a lot of short passes. Which helps his accuracy percentage, and cuts his INTs dramatically.

He completed 41% of his 39 passes that went over 20 yards.

And 89% of all his pass attempts were for LESS THAN 20 yards.



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TheOriginalCane said:
I don't really care that much about "ratio" stuff, as the ratio is skewed by his low number of INTs (and/or "should have been" INTs).

The reality is that he throws a lot of short passes. Which helps his accuracy percentage, and cuts his INTs dramatically.

He completed 41% of his 39 passes that went over 20 yards.

And 89% of all his pass attempts were for LESS THAN 20 yards.



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That’s the key part - “calculated risks”.

Despite the shiny numbers I posted, his over-arching problem is the inability to trust going deep consistently. And that’s with a 1st round WR in Pearsall in 2023.

That doesn’t change overnight, especially since it was a theme at Wisconsin. He can say all the right things, but until he actually starts going deeper at a consistent level, it’ll be more of the same. If Badger is hurt and Jean isn’t healthy, that’s already a significant blow to their WR core. He’ll be more inclined to use the TE’s and RB’s in the passing game, keeping everything shorter.
 
WeBallinBoyz said:
I’m actually going to give Mertz some more credit than I initially intended to. Once I finish my full analysis, I plan on posting a write up about a week or so from the game. Here’s a small snippet.

Mertz had a 20:3 TD to INT ratio in 2023, and finished with double the big-time throws vs. turnover-worthy plays. This essentially means exceptional pass plays vs. plays that should result in turnovers a majority of the time (granted, it’s subjective, but pretty much within a pass or two).. By far the best season of his collegiate career to date (not saying much considering the previous years were trash), but he had 15 big-time throws vs 2 turnover-worthy plays on attempts of over 10 yards. When he does go deep, he’s pretty confident in it.

Now his issue is that he doesn’t push it downfield enough, and tends to lean on the conservative side.

***Obviously they have major issues at OL***- they were 15th in sacks in 2022, but 115th in 2023. Shuffling plenty of guys around + transfers, sliding Damien George from tackle to guard. Center is probably most solidified but Reports are no bueno along the OL thus far.

That plus their yards per carry dropped from 5.8 in 2022 to 4.1 in 2023, and they lost Etienne (4.1 yards after contact on 124 attempts) and now Montrell is banged up. So now you’ve got an OL that significantly regressed from 2022 to 2023 in both run and pass blocking, and is being shuffled around plus relying on a G5 transfer from San Diego State to elevate and stabilize the room.
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You don't have to watch a ton of film to know he's a game manager. He's experienced, makes pretty good decisions, doesn't press downfield a lot and is a sneaky good athlete.
 
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WeBallinBoyz said:
I’m actually going to give Mertz some more credit than I initially intended to. Once I finish my full analysis, I plan on posting a write up about a week or so from the game. Here’s a small snippet.

Mertz had a 20:3 TD to INT ratio in 2023, and finished with double the big-time throws vs. turnover-worthy plays. This essentially means exceptional pass plays vs. plays that should result in turnovers a majority of the time (granted, it’s subjective, but pretty much within a pass or two).. By far the best season of his collegiate career to date (not saying much considering the previous years were trash), but he had 15 big-time throws vs 2 turnover-worthy plays on attempts of over 10 yards. When he does go deep, he’s pretty confident in it.

Now his issue is that he doesn’t push it downfield enough, and tends to lean on the conservative side.

***Obviously they have major issues at OL***- they were 15th in sacks in 2022, but 115th in 2023. Shuffling plenty of guys around + transfers, sliding Damien George from tackle to guard. Center is probably most solidified but Reports are no bueno along the OL thus far.

That plus their yards per carry dropped from 5.8 in 2022 to 4.1 in 2023, and they lost Etienne (4.1 yards after contact on 124 attempts) and now Montrell is banged up. So now you’ve got an OL that significantly regressed from 2022 to 2023 in both run and pass blocking, and is being shuffled around plus relying on a G5 transfer from San Diego State to elevate and stabilize the room.
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Word out of ****sville is their Center is struggling Big time.
 
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