Top 5 players on the NFL 100 list were three Star recruits in high school

johnnytsunami01

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Well 37% of Division 1 football players are 3 star recruits while just .6% are 5 stars and 4% are 4 stars.

So yes, very likely that the top players are 3 star or below, but you have a much better probability of a 5 star player making the list.

According to 247 sports: Here are the percentage chances of becoming a first rounder based on star rating via the 2020 draft:

  • 5-star: 1 in 5
  • 4-star: 1 in 21
  • 3-star: 1 in 184
  • 2-star: 0 in 1755 (none drafted)
  • Unrated: 1 in 1061

Source: https://247sports.com/Article/nfl-d...of incoming D1,is the second-biggest category.
 

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Well 37% of Division 1 football players are 3 star recruits while just .6% are 5 stars and 4% are 4 stars.

So yes, very likely that the top players are 3 star or below, but you have a much better probability of a 5 star player making the list.

According to 247 sports: Here are the percentage chances of becoming a first rounder based on star rating via the 2020 draft:

  • 5-star: 1 in 5
  • 4-star: 1 in 21
  • 3-star: 1 in 184
  • 2-star: 0 in 1755 (none drafted)
  • Unrated: 1 in 1061

Source: https://247sports.com/Article/nfl-draft-recruit-star-rankings-ratings-college-football-sleeper-247-sports-146550794/#:~:text=About 1843 of incoming D1,is the second-biggest category.
That's simply categorically untrue. You are correct when you say that there is significant evidence which shows that as a player has a higher star rating and overall rank, he tends to be drafted not only in earlier rounds, but is also selected earlier within those rounds. However it is incorrect to think that star ratings are an accurate predictor of NFL success because there is a negative correlation between a players drafted position and overall career performance in the NFL.

 
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Calvin

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Got a hard time seeing two other qbs rated ahead of #15 or anyone other than mahomes ahead of donald
I'm not sure why, mahomes has way better weapons than russell and action jackson, you put wilson or jackson on k.c. and league might start looking into changing rules, mahomes is no slouch. And while donald is a balla, he's no JEROME BROWN, CORTEZ KENNEDY, russell or warren sapp, but he's a real good player. It can be easily argued that mack is better than him!
 

NJshoreCane

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That's simply categorically untrue. You are correct when you say that there is significant evidence which shows that as a player has a higher star rating and overall rank, he tends to be drafted not only in earlier rounds, but is also selected earlier within those rounds. However it is incorrect to think that star ratings are an accurate predictor of NFL success because there is a negative correlation between a players drafted position and overall career performance in the NFL.

Star rating as it relates to being a high draft pick and star rating as it relates to NFL success are two different subjects.
 

johnnytsunami01

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That's simply categorically untrue. You are correct when you say that there is significant evidence which shows that as a player has a higher star rating and overall rank, he tends to be drafted not only in earlier rounds, but is also selected earlier within those rounds. However it is incorrect to think that star ratings are an accurate predictor of NFL success because there is a negative correlation between a players drafted position and overall career performance in the NFL.

Just look at the top 100, it isn't too difficult. Just looking at #1-30, 6 of them were composite 5 stars with an additional 2 being just below at really high 4 stars and top 2 in their position.

That means that 20% of the top 30 NFL players were 5 stars, yet only .6% of college recruits are 5 stars.

So if the player is a 5 star it is more likely that he will be a great player than a 3 star. Of course there are going to be more 3 star players that are going to excel in the NFL then 5 star, there just are a ton more.

If you look at percentage # of success/# of total 5 stars that will be much higher than # of success/# of 3 star players.
 

Calvin

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1. Lamar Jackson, Ravens QB.
2. Russell Wilson, Seahawks QB.
3. Aaron Donald, Rams DE.
4. Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs QB.
5. Michael Thomas, Saints WR
The nerd recruiting sites don't know WTF they doing, this is pretty much the formula they use:
1. Lamar Jackson, Ravens QB.
2. Russell Wilson, Seahawks QB.
3. Aaron Donald, Rams DE.
4. Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs QB.
5. Michael Thomas, Saints WR
Always remember, this is pretty much the formula those nerd recruiting sites use to rank/rate their players:

 

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ATLien
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Just look at the top 100, it isn't too difficult. Just looking at #1-30, 6 of them were composite 5 stars with an additional 2 being just below at really high 4 stars and top 2 in their position.

That means that 20% of the top 30 NFL players were 5 stars, yet only .6% of college recruits are 5 stars.

So if the player is a 5 star it is more likely that he will be a great player than a 3 star. Of course there are going to be more 3 star players that are going to excel in the NFL then 5 star, there just are a ton more.

If you look at percentage # of success/# of total 5 stars that will be much higher than # of success/# of 3 star players.
You're not understanding. The top 100 is selected by fellow players, and changes from yr to yr. A better gauge or barometer for judging performance is overall career earnings. If you actually cared to read the research you would understand that. Ultimately what this research proves is that coaching is more important than talent. The highest rated high school players end up becoming the best college players, because they go to the best CFB programs with the best coaches. The same cannot be said for the NFL where the best college players are drafted by the worst teams, which are led by the worst coaches.
 
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puertorricane

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Not every three star is the same, yes there are a lot more three stars but you cant group them all in the same category.

Compare the top three stars to the same amount of five stars and four stars.
All these players went to power five conferences . Is not the same as a three star that goes to Temple for example.
 

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ATLien
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Star rating as it relates to being a high draft pick and star rating as it relates to NFL success are two different subjects.
How are they different? The highest rated high school players end up getting drafted the earliest, but why don't those same players also end up having the best NFL careers? It's because you can't decouple talent from coaching & organization. When you do the accuracy & validity of the talent rating system completely falls apart.
 
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DTP

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You're not understanding. The top 100 is selected by fellow players, and changes from yr to yr. A better gauge or barometer for judging performance is overall career earnings. If you actually cared to read the research you would understand that. Ultimately what this research proves is that coaching is more important than talent. The highest rated high school players end up becoming the best college players, because they go to the best CFB programs with the best coaches. The same cannot be said for the NFL where the best college players are drafted by the worst teams, which are led by the worst coaches.
Career earnings is not an accurate way to judge a player’s career. Some positions get paid more than others regardless of how good the player is. An average quarterback makes way more than the best guard in the league. The highest paid player is often the guy who most recently hit free agency.
Also the correlation between top High school players going to top college programs and top college players going to bad pro teams has more to do with the amount of talent surrounding him than the coaching he gets. The bad teams are bad because they have few good players. Coaching, especially at the pro level is more about balancing egos than teaching the game.
 

DTP

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Threads like this always bring out the “stars don’t matter” crowd. It’s like they completely ignore the fact that a majority of FBS recruits are 3 star players thus a majority of players eventually moving to the NFL will also be 3 star players. It’s not like there’s an even distribution of 5,4 and 3 star rankings. A tiny percentage of guys are 4 and 5 star and a huge percentage are 3 star.
 

NJshoreCane

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How are they different? The highest rated high school players end up getting drafted the earliest, but why don't those same players also end up having the best NFL careers? It's because you can't decouple talent from coaching & organization. When you do the accuracy & validity of the talent rating system completely falls apart.
They do not.
Maybe a point was missed somewhere, but that is basically what I posted.
 

Novacane32000

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Well 37% of Division 1 football players are 3 star recruits while just .6% are 5 stars and 4% are 4 stars.

So yes, very likely that the top players are 3 star or below, but you have a much better probability of a 5 star player making the list.

According to 247 sports: Here are the percentage chances of becoming a first rounder based on star rating via the 2020 draft:

  • 5-star: 1 in 5
  • 4-star: 1 in 21
  • 3-star: 1 in 184
  • 2-star: 0 in 1755 (none drafted)
  • Unrated: 1 in 1061

Source: https://247sports.com/Article/nfl-draft-recruit-star-rankings-ratings-college-football-sleeper-247-sports-146550794/#:~:text=About 1843 of incoming D1,is the second-biggest category.
Here is another way to look at it. For an NFL team to get a roster (52 players) full of 1st round talent they would need to start training camp with 260 5-Star players.
In order to get a roster of 1st round talent with 3-Star players , they would need to start camp with 9568.

LOL. Give me the 5 -Stars all day long.
 

cowboycane

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This is a dumb argument, however worth pointing out that Lamar was rated a 4 star on at least one site. But go off.
 

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puertorricane

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Question to the board, of the 11 3 stars including kicker according to this site are you willing to drop for higher rated players.
 
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