That's simply categorically untrue. You are correct when you say that there is significant evidence which shows that as a player has a higher star rating and overall rank, he tends to be drafted not only in earlier rounds, but is also selected earlier within those rounds. However it is incorrect to think that star ratings are an accurate predictor of NFL success because there is a negative correlation between a players drafted position and overall career performance in the NFL.
Star rating as it relates to being a high draft pick and star rating as it relates to NFL success are two different subjects.
Just look at the top 100, it isn't too difficult. Just looking at #1-30, 6 of them were composite 5 stars with an additional 2 being just below at really high 4 stars and top 2 in their position.
The nerd recruiting sites don't know WTF they doing, this is pretty much the formula they use:
You're not understanding. The top 100 is selected by fellow players, and changes from yr to yr. A better gauge or barometer for judging performance is overall career earnings. If you actually cared to read the research you would understand that. Ultimately what this research proves is that coaching is more important than talent. The highest rated high school players end up becoming the best college players, because they go to the best CFB programs with the best coaches. The same cannot be said for the NFL where the best college players are drafted by the worst teams, which are led by the worst coaches.
How are they different? The highest rated high school players end up getting drafted the earliest, but why don't those same players also end up having the best NFL careers? It's because you can't decouple talent from coaching & organization. When you do the accuracy & validity of the talent rating system completely falls apart.
Career earnings is not an accurate way to judge a player’s career. Some positions get paid more than others regardless of how good the player is. An average quarterback makes way more than the best guard in the league. The highest paid player is often the guy who most recently hit free agency.
They do not.
Here is another way to look at it. For an NFL team to get a roster (52 players) full of 1st round talent they would need to start training camp with 260 5-Star players.
