Thoughts on Who Stumbles Next in the ACC

[MovingZen]

Clearly Miami can't lose another game simply because 2 losses won't get us into the playoffs or probably not in the acccg. We go undefeated, SMU and Pitt are out. We need Duke and Louisville to lose another acc game. We need Virginia or UVA to lose a game or one of them to lose two games. We're way outside looking in.
Virginia needs to lose 2 games and both Duke and Louisville need to lose another game so we can play GT in the acccg.
Sad part is, that's a lot of moving parts for the best team we've had in some time to make the acccg. If the acc is as mid as we all think it is, we're still in a sad state.
I don't know the tiebreaker scenario well enough to predict what happens if a bunch of acc teams are running around with one loss in the acc.

 

[OrangeBowlMagic]

The ACC would be a nice bonus. But we don't need it.

We are 5 wins away from the playoffs. Here are the teams we play:

SMU - #52 in EPA Margin, #43 in FEI
Syracuse - #96 in EPA Margin, #72 in FEI
NC State - #48 in EPA Margin, #63 in FEI
VT - #88 in EPA Margin, #75 in FEI
Pitt - #37 in EPA Margin, #35 in FEI

If we get to Pitt and lose the flukiest game ever, whatever, I probably won't throw myself off the roof. They're a decent team. No excuses, it'll be a massive failure, but they're at least competent.

But if we lose any of the next 4, it's a catastrophe. And I don't care about 2 of them being on the road. These teams suck. Find a way to win, you have the MUCH better football team.

For the record, Louisville is #26 in FEI and #20 in EPA Margin. They're a pretty good football team.

Miami is #7 in EPA Margin and #10 in FEI, by the way.

The Top 10 in EPA Margin are:

Taint
Indiana
Alabama
Texas A&M
Texas Tech
Notre Dame
Miami
Oregon
Utah
USC

Seems like a pretty decent way to measure football teams.

The only top ranked team this formula doesn't like is GT, it has them 24th, and it makes sense. They literally did lose to Wake, and the officials robbed Wake. And they lose 9 times out of 10 to Duke with the way that game played out.

 

[TheOriginalCane]

Is there a scenario where we can play UL again ?

If GaTech and UVa go down in flames.

 

[MikeCane18]

All 4 teams play on the road Saturday. We actually are the largest spread of the 4. It would be naive to not expect 1-2 losses to occur here

VT is playing hard. And I think uva takes an L to Cal.

If Im UVA im running +1 runner plays all day against Cal. Jet sweeps, QB read option, QB sweep, RPO. Cal had no ability or effort to even stop that all night against VT. Virginia has a very good RB and Morris can run. I don't see Cal beating them, maybe it's close, but Cal's defense was abysmal against the run last week and I would make them try to stop it this week.

 

[BigDikDaddyFromCincinnati]

Good luck trying to prognosticate this s.h!thole conference. Every year is like a Chinese Fire Drill being run with a clown car full of bozos wearing big shoes and red noses.

 

[simplycanes]

We are 4-8 in November under Mario.

 

[WndyCityCane]

24 seasons. I still can’t believe it.

 

[GirthQuake]

Gt is cooked if it’s red bandana night for bc

 

[coffeecane]

Pencil in GT and the remaining 4, including us, are a toss up.

 

[doctor dingleberry]

We are 4-8 in November under Mario.

This board will handle dropping one more game very well

 

[FL Cane]

Why would a 11-1 GT automatically get into the ACCCG?

If we win out, we’re in the CFP regardless. But basically 11-1 GT means they only lost one in conference game and beat UGA. Or wet undefeated in conference and lost to UGA. Either way, very little chance there are more than two 11-1 ACC teams at the end of the season

 

[FL Cane]

Miami?

Win out and it doesn’t matter, we’re in the CFP regardless. But if we finish the year 11-1 we’re like a 95% chance to be in the ACCCG. Very low likelihood that there’s more than two 11-1 ACC teams at the end of the season. Genuinely don’t know what happens if UL ends up 11-1, and GT and us end 11-1. UL has the head to head so gets in, but idk how us and GT would be rectified

 

[LoungeLord]

Who gives a **** about the ACC man. Just win out and we’re in the playoffs, that’s all that matters. Conference championships can go stick it up their ***. I can guarantee you OSU doesn’t give a crap about not winning the Big Ten title last year since they won the national championship. All that matters is the playoffs now.

 

[caneforlifeforreal]

Miami wins out they don’t need a ACCCG appearance.

The most Miami thing ever to not win the ACC and then win the . . .

Im not saying it and youre not ******* saying it either

But . . . . . .

 

[FL Cane]

Win out and it doesn’t matter, we’re in the CFP regardless. But if we finish the year 11-1 we’re like a 95% chance to be in the ACCCG. Very low likelihood that there’s more than two 11-1 ACC teams at the end of the season. Genuinely don’t know what happens if UL ends up 11-1, and GT and us end 11-1. UL has the head to head so gets in, but idk how us and GT would be rectified

So based on this, (1) is irrelevant. If we have identical records against the three conference opponents we have (they’re terrible). (2) and (3) are also irrelevant. It would then go to (4), where GTs weak schedule would come back to bite. The combined win percentage of our conference opponents are WAY higher than theirs.

Either way, just win out.

 

[P-Tizzle]

If we win out, we’re in the CFP regardless. But basically 11-1 GT means they only lost one in conference game and beat UGA. Or wet undefeated in conference and lost to UGA. Either way, very little chance there are more than two 11-1 ACC teams at the end of the season

But brother one loss doesn't put GT in the ACCCG, especially if that one loss is to Pitt, and Miami beats Pitt.

For instance, GT 11-1 (loss to Pitt), UL (11-1 loss to UVA), Miami (11-1 loss to UL), and UVA (11-1 loss to NC State)

Would have three teams in the ACC with only 1 conference loss (GT, PITT, and UL; NC State isn't considered a conference loss for UVA).

And if Miami and GT win out (w/ GT beating UGA):

In this scenario, GT and Miami would be left out of the ACCCG at 11-1 but UVA and UL would be in the ACCCG.

yes, we all think it's unlikely to happen (especially GT beating UGA) but it's not too far fetched.

Going forward, GT, Miami, UL, and UVA don't play each other. So, going into the ACCCG, four teams can have only one loss, and then AFTER the ACCCG, three of those teams could have only 1 loss.

 

[FL Cane]

But brother one loss doesn't put GT in the ACCCG, especially if that one loss is to Pitt, and Miami beats Pitt.

For instance, GT 11-1 (loss to Pitt), UL (11-1 loss to UVA), Miami (11-1 loss to UL), and UVA (11-1 loss to NC State)

Would have three teams in the ACC with only 1 conference loss (GT, PITT, and UL; NC State isn't considered a conference loss for UVA).

And if Miami and GT win out (w/ GT beating UGA):

In this scenario, GT and Miami would be left out of the ACCCG at 11-1 but UVA and UL would be in the ACCCG.

yes, we all think it's unlikely to happen (especially GT beating UGA) but it's not too far fetched.

Going forward, GT, Miami, UL, and UVA don't play each other. So, going into the ACCCG, four teams can have only one loss, and then AFTER the ACCCG, three of those teams could have only 1 loss.

I agree. What I’m saying is that if GT finishes 11-1 and undefeated in conference play, they’re in. If they only have one loss, they just need to worry about Pitt also only having one loss in conference play, or Miami being 11-1 and UL being 11-1. At that point, based on the above, Miami would get in over GT due to tiebreakers.

But I’m also assuming UVA losses a few down the road, and UL drops another conference game.

 

[P-Tizzle]

I agree. What I’m saying is that if GT finishes 11-1 and undefeated in conference play, they’re in. If they only have one loss, they just need to worry about Pitt also only having one loss in conference play, or Miami being 11-1 and UL being 11-1. At that point, based on the above, Miami would get in over GT due to tiebreakers.

But I’m also assuming UVA losses a few down the road, and UL drops another conference game.

In what? the CFP or the ACCCG or both?

 

[Reyrey]

If Im UVA im running +1 runner plays all day against Cal. Jet sweeps, QB read option, QB sweep, RPO. Cal had no ability or effort to even stop that all night against VT. Virginia has a very good RB and Morris can run. I don't see Cal beating them, maybe it's close, but Cal's defense was abysmal against the run last week and I would make them try to stop it this week.

Don’t underestimate the travel to cal

 

[dudenate]

Who gives a **** about the ACC man. Just win out and we’re in the playoffs, that’s all that matters. Conference championships can go stick it up their ***. I can guarantee you OSU doesn’t give a crap about not winning the Big Ten title last year since they won the national championship. All that matters is the playoffs now.

This.

It's as irrelevant as basketball conf. championships.

How many does Duke have? (Probably alot)...but who give 2 ****s!?!? But they've got a boatload of NC's.

Its all about natty's.