Thoughts on Who Stumbles Next in the ACC

FL Cane

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Unfortunately, like the last 24 seasons in the ACC, Miami is not in complete control of its destiny to reach the ACCCG. There are four real contenders, not including Miami, for a spot in the ACCCG. They are Georgia Tech, Louisville, Virginia, and Pitt. Here are there remaining schedules and opponent records below.

Georgia Tech
  • Nov 1 @ NC State — 4–4.
  • Nov 15 @ Boston College — 1–7.
  • Nov 22 vs Pitt — 6–2.
  • Nov 28 vs Georgia — 6–1.
Virginia
  • Nov 1 @ California — 5–3.
  • Nov 8 vs Wake Forest — 5–2.
  • Nov 15 @ Duke — 4–3.
  • Nov 29 vs Virginia Tech — 3–5.
Louisville
  • Nov 1 @ Virginia Tech — 3–5.
  • Nov 8 vs California — 5–3.
  • Nov 14 vs Clemson — 3–4.
  • Nov 22 @ SMU — 5–3.
  • Nov 29 vs Kentucky — 2–5.
Pitt
  • Nov 1 @ Stanford — Stanford 3–5.
  • Nov 15 vs Notre Dame — Notre Dame 5–2.
  • Nov 22 @ Georgia Tech — 8–0.
  • Nov 29 vs Miami — 6–1.
Here’s where I think they end up:

GT: easiest schedule in the ACC, and among Top 10 teams, by a mile. However, they remind me a lot of 2017 Miami with their luck and style of play. At some point that bites. Only remaining challenges are NCST and Pitt. I think they lose one of those. Even then, 11-1 gets them into the AACCG. If they lose one and to UGA (who I think smacks them) they’d need an ACCCG win to get in.

UVA: as a VA alum I keep an eye on this team. Credit to Tony Elliot, they look the best they have in years. But, I think they drop at least 2 out of their next four. Maybe even 3. They’ve played with fire, and at some point you get burned. Even VT has a shot, a game that UVA historically struggles in.

UL: for our purposes, we need them to lose one more game assuming we can win out. That’s likely with a slate of Cal, Clemson, and SMU. This is a good team, they could win out, but I think they lose one of those three at minimum.

Pitt: The toughest path. Already have a conference loss to UL. Play GT and us to end the year. If they lose to GT they’re basically out. If we beat them, we seal it.

Overall, think UVA falls out on this last quarter of the season, with UL and Pitt at risk of potential losses. GT has the easiest path. Four out purposes though you want NCST and Pitt to beat them. We have a good path to the ACCCG and clinch a CFP regardless with 11-1. That’s the goal, anything but that would be a massive disappointment.
 
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UVA will lose 2 more games...IMO
Louisville will lose to VT or they will win out...IMO
Pitt is irrelevant because they losing to us
 
Unfortunately, like the last 24 seasons in the ACC, Miami is not in complete control of its destiny to reach the ACCCG. There are four real contenders, not including Miami, for a spot in the ACCCG. They are Georgia Tech, Louisville, Virginia, and Pitt. Here are there remaining schedules and opponent records below.

Georgia Tech
  • Nov 1 @ NC State — 4–4.
  • Nov 15 @ Boston College — 1–7.
  • Nov 22 vs Pitt — 6–2.
  • Nov 28 vs Georgia — 6–1.
Virginia
  • Nov 1 @ California — 5–3.
  • Nov 8 vs Wake Forest — 5–2.
  • Nov 15 @ Duke — 4–3.
  • Nov 29 vs Virginia Tech — 3–5.
Louisville
  • Nov 1 @ Virginia Tech — 3–5.
  • Nov 8 vs California — 5–3.
  • Nov 14 vs Clemson — 3–4.
  • Nov 22 @ SMU — 5–3.
  • Nov 29 vs Kentucky — 2–5.
Pitt
  • Nov 1 @ Stanford — Stanford 3–5.
  • Nov 15 vs Notre Dame — Notre Dame 5–2.
  • Nov 22 @ Georgia Tech — 8–0.
  • Nov 29 vs Miami — 6–1.
Here’s where I think they end up:

GT: easiest schedule in the ACC, and among Top 10 teams, by a mile. However, they remind me a lot of 2017 Miami with their luck and style of play. At some point that bites. Only remaining challenges are NCST and Pitt. I think they lose one of those. Even then, 11-1 gets them into the AACCG. If they lose one and to UGA (who I think smacks them) they’d need an ACCCG win to get in.

UVA: as a VA alum I keep an eye on this team. Credit to Tony Elliot, they look the best they have in years. But, I think they drop at least 2 out of their next four. Maybe even 3. They’ve played with fire, and at some point you get burned. Even VT has a shot, a game that UVA historically struggles in.

UL: for our purposes, we need them to lose one more game assuming we can win out. That’s likely with a slate of Cal, Clemson, and SMU. This is a good team, they could win out, but I think they lose one of those three at minimum.

Pitt: The toughest path. Already have a conference loss to UL. Play GT and us to end the year. If they lose to GT they’re basically out. If we beat them, we seal it.

Overall, think UVA falls out on this last quarter of the season, with UL and Pitt at risk of potential losses. GT has the easiest path. Four out purposes though you want NCST and Pitt to beat them. We have a good path to the ACCCG and clinch a CFP regardless with 11-1. That’s the goal, anything but that would be a massive disappointment.


If GT loses to Pitt, they will likely lose to UGa and be 10-2 going into the ACC-CG.

Cal and Wake have good shots to beat UVa.

Louisville may be tough, we need nice recoveries from Clemson and/or SMU.

We control the Pitt situation. Who knew that Pitt-GaTech might be the biggest-impact game of the season.
 
Unfortunately, like the last 24 seasons in the ACC, Miami is not in complete control of its destiny to reach the ACCCG. There are four real contenders, not including Miami, for a spot in the ACCCG. They are Georgia Tech, Louisville, Virginia, and Pitt. Here are there remaining schedules and opponent records below.

Georgia Tech
  • Nov 1 @ NC State — 4–4.
  • Nov 15 @ Boston College — 1–7.
  • Nov 22 vs Pitt — 6–2.
  • Nov 28 vs Georgia — 6–1.
Virginia
  • Nov 1 @ California — 5–3.
  • Nov 8 vs Wake Forest — 5–2.
  • Nov 15 @ Duke — 4–3.
  • Nov 29 vs Virginia Tech — 3–5.
Louisville
  • Nov 1 @ Virginia Tech — 3–5.
  • Nov 8 vs California — 5–3.
  • Nov 14 vs Clemson — 3–4.
  • Nov 22 @ SMU — 5–3.
  • Nov 29 vs Kentucky — 2–5.
Pitt
  • Nov 1 @ Stanford — Stanford 3–5.
  • Nov 15 vs Notre Dame — Notre Dame 5–2.
  • Nov 22 @ Georgia Tech — 8–0.
  • Nov 29 vs Miami — 6–1.
Here’s where I think they end up:

GT: easiest schedule in the ACC, and among Top 10 teams, by a mile. However, they remind me a lot of 2017 Miami with their luck and style of play. At some point that bites. Only remaining challenges are NCST and Pitt. I think they lose one of those. Even then, 11-1 gets them into the AACCG. If they lose one and to UGA (who I think smacks them) they’d need an ACCCG win to get in.

UVA: as a VA alum I keep an eye on this team. Credit to Tony Elliot, they look the best they have in years. But, I think they drop at least 2 out of their next four. Maybe even 3. They’ve played with fire, and at some point you get burned. Even VT has a shot, a game that UVA historically struggles in.

UL: for our purposes, we need them to lose one more game assuming we can win out. That’s likely with a slate of Cal, Clemson, and SMU. This is a good team, they could win out, but I think they lose one of those three at minimum.

Pitt: The toughest path. Already have a conference loss to UL. Play GT and us to end the year. If they lose to GT they’re basically out. If we beat them, we seal it.

Overall, think UVA falls out on this last quarter of the season, with UL and Pitt at risk of potential losses. GT has the easiest path. Four out purposes though you want NCST and Pitt to beat them. We have a good path to the ACCCG and clinch a CFP regardless with 11-1. That’s the goal, anything but that would be a massive disappointment.
I don't know how well UGA does against GTech this year. They nearly lost at home without Haynes King who is averaging 6 yac, with 12 rush TDs and 70% passing this year. Tough matchup
 
All 4 teams play on the road Saturday. We actually are the largest spread of the 4. It would be naive to not expect 1-2 losses to occur here

VT is playing hard. And I think uva takes an L to Cal.
 
If GT loses to Pitt, they will likely lose to UGa and be 10-2 going into the ACC-CG.

Cal and Wake have good shots to beat UVa.

Louisville may be tough, we need nice recoveries from Clemson and/or SMU.

We control the Pitt situation. Who knew that Pitt-GaTech might be the biggest-impact game of the season.
GT and UVA have won 3 games despite have a negative success rate. Pitt game def won to watch. But I’m not sleeping on this night game at NC State
 
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None of these teams are good enough to run the table unless they catch some breaks (an injury, a bad call, etc)

I think all 4 lose at least 1 time and 2 isnt out of the question. UVA plays with fire weekly.

I'd love to win the ACC Champ...but I'd also be fine with our depth if we ran the table and didnt get into the ACC.

But all that said if this is a revenge tour I'd love to beat the brakes off GTech or Louisville. (Gtech will have their hands full this weekend. NC State has just enough to give them all they can handle and then some).
 
Is there a scenario where we can play UL again ?

Yes.

-UL wins out
-GT loses to Pitt
-UVA drops 2 games
-Duke loses 1 more

I'd love another shot at Louisville in the ACCCG. The most likely scenario for Miami is Pitt beating GT and Louisville losing to Clemson/SMU.

This weekend we can get back in the driver seat if:

-GT loses to NC State
-Louisville loses to VT
 
Unfortunately, like the last 24 seasons in the ACC, Miami is not in complete control of its destiny to reach the ACCCG. There are four real contenders, not including Miami, for a spot in the ACCCG. They are Georgia Tech, Louisville, Virginia, and Pitt. Here are there remaining schedules and opponent records below.

Georgia Tech
  • Nov 1 @ NC State — 4–4.
  • Nov 15 @ Boston College — 1–7.
  • Nov 22 vs Pitt — 6–2.
  • Nov 28 vs Georgia — 6–1.
Virginia
  • Nov 1 @ California — 5–3.
  • Nov 8 vs Wake Forest — 5–2.
  • Nov 15 @ Duke — 4–3.
  • Nov 29 vs Virginia Tech — 3–5.
Louisville
  • Nov 1 @ Virginia Tech — 3–5.
  • Nov 8 vs California — 5–3.
  • Nov 14 vs Clemson — 3–4.
  • Nov 22 @ SMU — 5–3.
  • Nov 29 vs Kentucky — 2–5.
Pitt
  • Nov 1 @ Stanford — Stanford 3–5.
  • Nov 15 vs Notre Dame — Notre Dame 5–2.
  • Nov 22 @ Georgia Tech — 8–0.
  • Nov 29 vs Miami — 6–1.
Here’s where I think they end up:

GT: easiest schedule in the ACC, and among Top 10 teams, by a mile. However, they remind me a lot of 2017 Miami with their luck and style of play. At some point that bites. Only remaining challenges are NCST and Pitt. I think they lose one of those. Even then, 11-1 gets them into the AACCG. If they lose one and to UGA (who I think smacks them) they’d need an ACCCG win to get in.

UVA: as a VA alum I keep an eye on this team. Credit to Tony Elliot, they look the best they have in years. But, I think they drop at least 2 out of their next four. Maybe even 3. They’ve played with fire, and at some point you get burned. Even VT has a shot, a game that UVA historically struggles in.

UL: for our purposes, we need them to lose one more game assuming we can win out. That’s likely with a slate of Cal, Clemson, and SMU. This is a good team, they could win out, but I think they lose one of those three at minimum.

Pitt: The toughest path. Already have a conference loss to UL. Play GT and us to end the year. If they lose to GT they’re basically out. If we beat them, we seal it.

Overall, think UVA falls out on this last quarter of the season, with UL and Pitt at risk of potential losses. GT has the easiest path. Four out purposes though you want NCST and Pitt to beat them. We have a good path to the ACCCG and clinch a CFP regardless with 11-1. That’s the goal, anything but that would be a massive disappointment.
Who gives a **** about the ACC man. Just win out and we’re in the playoffs, that’s all that matters. Conference championships can go stick it up their ***. I can guarantee you OSU doesn’t give a crap about not winning the Big Ten title last year since they won the national championship. All that matters is the playoffs now.
 
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In past years every single ACC team that needed to lose would lose, but Miami would fall apart anyway.

Fully expect these ACC teams to open up the gates for Miami and it'll be all up to them, again.
 
UVA lost their starting RB for the rest of the season. The QB, Morris, is not 100% and supposedly can’t scramble like he was. They have been moving OL around all season due to injuries in camp and early on.

They are worried about their offense- it’s hobbled right now. They seem likely to drop a game or two
 
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