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Thoughts on FSU vs Virginia and Implications

Squid Bumciorek said:
bro, I’m not trying to oversell UM, but it should not be a close game. Our strengths are their weaknesses.
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Oh I agree. I was just shocked when I checked last night after a @k9cane post and saw we've only beaten them by more than 1 score in Tally 3 times in 70 years. Probably am making too much of it.
 
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Key is containing the QB & not letting make hay off busted plays. Twitchy little dude, but if he’s contained FSU offense is limited.
 
Combo said:
It shouldn't be close, but this is one of those game where you can throw trends out the window.
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People said the same about UF. Teams are what they are. If refs don’t blow the whistle on Browns TD run, we are up 20-0 at the beginning of the 3rd quarter and the game is over. So if the trend is UM getting screwed by refs, then yes the game might be closer than it should be.
 
FL Cane said:
I also forgot to add. They are extremely undisciplined and inclined to commit mental errors. Talent wise, like @DMoney said earlier this season, they've got bargain bin transfers starting across the board.

I think they'll be motivated to play us, but I don't see how they stop our running game. Our OL is miles better than UVA or Bama. Beck will have a clean pocket for the most part, and if they sell out the run we will carve up that swiss cheese secondary.
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Exactly. While they may be motivated against us due to the rivalry and being at home, the surest way to break that enthusiasm is to just dominate in the trenches, assert our will, and beat them down. By the 2nd or 3rd Q they will be exhausted and mentally crushed
 
chrisRMNU said:
I just don't see how they beat us unless we beat ourselves. Everything you said; we should and probably will just push them down the field, sprinkle in Toney sitting down in zone voids here and there or Beck hitting the check down when they blitz.

Defensively we just have to contain Tommy and make him beat us with his arm. And bracket Robinson on the sideline. That back shoulder fade is 50% of their passing game.
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Well with 2 turnovers and 4 penalties in the 1st qtr FSU was down 14 before you could say uncle. They did beat themselves to some extent. Shrimp Tommy is listed at 5’11” but he looks about 5’9”. Can’t wait until Bain & Co. get in his face.
 
the storm said:
Well with 2 turnovers and 4 penalties in the 1st qtr FSU was down 14 before you could say uncle. They did beat themselves to some extent. Shrimp Tommy is listed at 5’11” but he looks about 5’9”. Can’t wait until Bain & Co. get in his face.
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They were definitely sloppy. And it could have been worse because they had a 3rd turnover that was overturned. Then the UVA QB throwing terrible passes to get FSU back in it. I wouldn't overlook FSU because although gimmicky, that offense can strike, but we should be able to bulldoze up and down the field.
 
Squid Bumciorek said:
People said the same about UF. Teams are what they are. If refs don’t blow the whistle on Browns TD run, we are up 20-0 at the beginning of the 3rd quarter and the game is over. So if the trend is UM getting screwed by refs, then yes the game might be closer than it should be.
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Playing in an amped up road environment is the difference. It is probably worth 3-4 points on the spread, which is why 4.5 feels like a low number at first glance.
 
Squid Bumciorek said:
People said the same about UF. Teams are what they are. If refs don’t blow the whistle on Browns TD run, we are up 20-0 at the beginning of the 3rd quarter and the game is over. So if the trend is UM getting screwed by refs, then yes the game might be closer than it should be.
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So far the narrative is that we've played well enough to not leave it in the refs hands.
 
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FL Cane said:
Well, the Virginia Cavaliers did it. Upset a top ten-ranked team that's been beating its chest all season about beating Bama. For many, myself included, FSU appeared to be a better team, but not one that was very good, let alone elite. The signs were there, but many in the CFB media ignored them for the narrative. After watching last night's game, taking some notes, and watching the condensed version again, here are some thoughts on FSU's letdown against UVA.
  • FSU has to have the most limited route tree I've ever seen. It's literally slant, dig, wheel route, or go route. Speaking of FSU's passing game, they DO NOT throw inside the hashes. I think there were 2-3 passes inside the hashes. Everything else is thrown outside the hashes. They do not trust Castellanos to go over the middle, nor do they seem to have any plays that do so.

  • Their running game was better yesterday from their RBs, who were mostly nonfactors against Bama and even against the HS teams they played. They ran a lot of inside zone attacking the A and B gaps. It worked well against an undersized and underperforming UVA front seven. It will not work against our front 7. If ND couldn't do it, these guys won't. Also, their rotation at RB is plain weird. They have a habit of rotating out guys with the hot hand. Weird.

  • Duce Robinson is their best WR by a mile. Guy had a good game yesterday, albeit he bobbled what should have been a game-tying TD. That's just how it goes sometimes. Also, he pushes off on near every play, so Mario has to work the refs next weekend and get in their face. Squirrel White was a non-factor (has anyone confirmed he wasn't trampled by half of UVAs student section?), and Danzy had some good plays too. Their TEs haven't done much, but Pittman had a great catch yesterday.

  • Their OL struggled in pass protection and in generating push up front at various points. This was against an undersized and underwhelming UVA DL. You could see the difference in size on TV. It was glaring. Also, it says a lot that when they were inside the 5 early in the game and on 4th &1 late in the game, they did not lean on their OL to get the push they needed up front.

  • Like many of us said before their game, that offense runs through Castellanos. I was confused why UVA didn't have a spy on him for 95% of the game. It's something we did against USF, with a similar type QB, who we completely shut down. As for his performance in the air, completed 56% of his passes (bad), sailed/underthrew a few open guys on key downs, and had a few balls batted down (he is small its jarring on tv). Also, on his deep throws, he's basically just heaving it up and hoping Duce is somewhere or gets away with an OPI. He also starts down his WRs and doesn't go through his progressions. All in all, he's a QB that can hurt you with his legs but who is limited in the passing game.

  • The offensive playcalling for them wasn't bad overall, but man, Malzahn really **** the bed in some crucial downs. Their choosing to pass on 4th & 1 and not just run is an indictment of their OL.

  • Where do you even start with FSU's defense? Coached by Tony "Lance Guidry" White, this unit was beating its chest about beating Bama. Up front on the DL, FSU generated zero pass rush for most of the night. The two sacks they had were courtesy of DB/safety blitzes. A reminder, UVA had three starting OL out for this game. Their best OL, C, was replaced by an undersized C who had a great game. You could see the size differential between UVAs OL and FSUs DL. Even then, UVA pounded FSU on the ground. It was remarkable to see them run at will.

  • I said it repeatedly going into this game, FSU's secondary is TERRIBLE. UVA absolutely carved them up. The intermediate passing game was wide open, especially in the middle of the field. They may keep everything in front of them, but that soft zone coverage got carved up. You gotta think our WRs and Lofton can excel with that type of coverage.

  • I also said repeatedly, like many, that FSU had a tackling issue. They missed near 20 tackles last night, and needed the 3rd or 4th guy at the point of attack to bring down a UVA WR or RB. You can't fix bad tackling like that in one week. It's endemic on a team, just like we saw during the manny years.

  • Chandler Morris did everything he could to keep FSU in this game. Three bad interceptions. Still, the kid has heart and grit. Carved up FSU. Remarkable how clean a pocket he had at times. If he only throws one of those picks, this is a 14 point UVA win.
Before this game I thought FSU did not match up well with us. I'm even more convinced of that now. If UVA, with a depleted and undersized OL, could pound the rock against FSU, I can't even begin to think what we can do. Also, Beck is going to have a clean pocket with their lack of a pass rush, and he can carve them up. ND and UF's defenses are miles better than FSU. ****, I'd argue that USF's defense is better. Obviously a rivarly game that we will have to be ready for, but once where we have a very clear path to victory.
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It's worth noting that UVA was missing three of THEIR guys on their OL last night, if memory serves, and yet they produced a running attack that was able to get consistent scoring in the Red Zone on FSU's DL by their QB.

One other thing, though. My suspicion is that Norvell is saving plays for Miami. He has to be. He can't just have no answer to Miami's Defensive Secondary. That's why I think those passes you didn't see over the middle you will probably see during this game.
 
section9 said:
It's worth noting that UVA was missing three of THEIR guys on their OL last night, if memory serves, and yet they produced a running attack that was able to get consistent scoring in the Red Zone on FSU's DL by their QB.

One other thing, though. My suspicion is that Norvell is saving plays for Miami. He has to be. He can't just have no answer to Miami's Defensive Secondary. That's why I think those passes you didn't see over the middle you will probably see during this game.
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yep. They had a walk on TE playing OL last night...
 
FL Cane said:
Well, the Virginia Cavaliers did it. Upset a top ten-ranked team that's been beating its chest all season about beating Bama. For many, myself included, FSU appeared to be a better team, but not one that was very good, let alone elite. The signs were there, but many in the CFB media ignored them for the narrative. After watching last night's game, taking some notes, and watching the condensed version again, here are some thoughts on FSU's letdown against UVA.
  • FSU has to have the most limited route tree I've ever seen. It's literally slant, dig, wheel route, or go route. Speaking of FSU's passing game, they DO NOT throw inside the hashes. I think there were 2-3 passes inside the hashes. Everything else is thrown outside the hashes. They do not trust Castellanos to go over the middle, nor do they seem to have any plays that do so.

  • Their running game was better yesterday from their RBs, who were mostly nonfactors against Bama and even against the HS teams they played. They ran a lot of inside zone attacking the A and B gaps. It worked well against an undersized and underperforming UVA front seven. It will not work against our front 7. If ND couldn't do it, these guys won't. Also, their rotation at RB is plain weird. They have a habit of rotating out guys with the hot hand. Weird.

  • Duce Robinson is their best WR by a mile. Guy had a good game yesterday, albeit he bobbled what should have been a game-tying TD. That's just how it goes sometimes. Also, he pushes off on near every play, so Mario has to work the refs next weekend and get in their face. Squirrel White was a non-factor (has anyone confirmed he wasn't trampled by half of UVAs student section?), and Danzy had some good plays too. Their TEs haven't done much, but Pittman had a great catch yesterday.

  • Their OL struggled in pass protection and in generating push up front at various points. This was against an undersized and underwhelming UVA DL. You could see the difference in size on TV. It was glaring. Also, it says a lot that when they were inside the 5 early in the game and on 4th &1 late in the game, they did not lean on their OL to get the push they needed up front.

  • Like many of us said before their game, that offense runs through Castellanos. I was confused why UVA didn't have a spy on him for 95% of the game. It's something we did against USF, with a similar type QB, who we completely shut down. As for his performance in the air, completed 56% of his passes (bad), sailed/underthrew a few open guys on key downs, and had a few balls batted down (he is small its jarring on tv). Also, on his deep throws, he's basically just heaving it up and hoping Duce is somewhere or gets away with an OPI. He also starts down his WRs and doesn't go through his progressions. All in all, he's a QB that can hurt you with his legs but who is limited in the passing game.

  • The offensive playcalling for them wasn't bad overall, but man, Malzahn really **** the bed in some crucial downs. Their choosing to pass on 4th & 1 and not just run is an indictment of their OL.

  • Where do you even start with FSU's defense? Coached by Tony "Lance Guidry" White, this unit was beating its chest about beating Bama. Up front on the DL, FSU generated zero pass rush for most of the night. The two sacks they had were courtesy of DB/safety blitzes. A reminder, UVA had three starting OL out for this game. Their best OL, C, was replaced by an undersized C who had a great game. You could see the size differential between UVAs OL and FSUs DL. Even then, UVA pounded FSU on the ground. It was remarkable to see them run at will.

  • I said it repeatedly going into this game, FSU's secondary is TERRIBLE. UVA absolutely carved them up. The intermediate passing game was wide open, especially in the middle of the field. They may keep everything in front of them, but that soft zone coverage got carved up. You gotta think our WRs and Lofton can excel with that type of coverage.

  • I also said repeatedly, like many, that FSU had a tackling issue. They missed near 20 tackles last night, and needed the 3rd or 4th guy at the point of attack to bring down a UVA WR or RB. You can't fix bad tackling like that in one week. It's endemic on a team, just like we saw during the manny years.

  • Chandler Morris did everything he could to keep FSU in this game. Three bad interceptions. Still, the kid has heart and grit. Carved up FSU. Remarkable how clean a pocket he had at times. If he only throws one of those picks, this is a 14 point UVA win.
Before this game I thought FSU did not match up well with us. I'm even more convinced of that now. If UVA, with a depleted and undersized OL, could pound the rock against FSU, I can't even begin to think what we can do. Also, Beck is going to have a clean pocket with their lack of a pass rush, and he can carve them up. ND and UF's defenses are miles better than FSU. ****, I'd argue that USF's defense is better. Obviously a rivarly game that we will have to be ready for, but once where we have a very clear path to victory.
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This fsu team was like over the past 10 years
Literally a spitting image
 
section9 said:
It's worth noting that UVA was missing three of THEIR guys on their OL last night, if memory serves, and yet they produced a running attack that was able to get consistent scoring in the Red Zone on FSU's DL by their QB.

One other thing, though. My suspicion is that Norvell is saving plays for Miami. He has to be. He can't just have no answer to Miami's Defensive Secondary. That's why I think those passes you didn't see over the middle you will probably see during this game.
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They ran a tebow jump pass and about another half dozen variations of gus bus misdirection.

They lost to UVA despite emptying the bag.
 
Think we are ignoring a few things:
1. It is still a rivalry game and scores between us are usually close.
2. Regardless of schedule fsu has scored 31, 77, 66, and 38 in their 4 games.
3. Castellanos is dangerous running the ball and we have had problems with running QB's
4. They are 3-1 and were ranked and just lost an OT game against a team we thought would beat them and they did, but barely..
5. They are averaging 6.7 yards per carry.

I get all the criticism but this is a serious game and means the most to us as we rampage the ACC starting this week. GT squeezed one out today and will probably go undefeated, we want to be undefeated also, so include what their strengths are when evaluating them, Robinson is a super threat at WR simply because of his size...he will catch a lot of passes so we need to contain him.

ND was pretty good last year and made the playoffs even though they lost to Northern Illinois and with 2 losses this year might make the playoffs...we will not get the same treatment as ND if we end up losing to many games so win all of them and be sutomatically in.
If Special Teams are special and we pound the rock and beat them up with our superior size, skill and balance, we win by 3 scores.
 
I expect this game to be a war. Rivalry games usually never go how people think. I still think we pull off a close one.
 
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I will be interested to see how the team reacts to not being in the friendly confines of Hard Rock for the first time this season. The Canes do have a guy who's been there before in Beck obviously, but it's the younger guys who I wonder how they will respond. I expect FSU to come out and try to prove they weren't the team that showed up in Charlottesville last night, but the one who handled Bama.
 
section9 said:
It's worth noting that UVA was missing three of THEIR guys on their OL last night, if memory serves, and yet they produced a running attack that was able to get consistent scoring in the Red Zone on FSU's DL by their QB.

One other thing, though. My suspicion is that Norvell is saving plays for Miami. He has to be. He can't just have no answer to Miami's Defensive Secondary. That's why I think those passes you didn't see over the middle you will probably see during this game.
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I’m not sure a 5’10” QB can throw over the middle with any consistency.
 
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