HurricaneAce07
Class of 2007
- Joined
- Sep 21, 2015
- Messages
- 816
When I'm ****ed about my team's performance, I don't go out and drink or smoke; I do statistics. What I wanted to know was what our differentials were between all losses from 2014-2015 compared to our 2015 wins. Why not include 2014 wins? Simply because coaches are expected to make the biggest changes to their schemes/methodology during the off season when they can review their bad games (losses) and create lessons learned to generate less mistakes and more wins. This is especially true for 3rd down efficiency, penalties and play calling. Nick Saben is renowned for this approach which is termed as "continuous pursuit of perfection". Below is a baseline of some of what I put together...
Yardage:
LOSSES (2014-2015)
Avg. Yards For: 390
Avg. Yards Against: 384
Avg. Poss. Delta: -3.5 mins
WINS(2015)
Avg. Yards For: 472
Avg. Yards Against: 310
Avg. Poss. Delta: +2 mins
Meaning: There actually isn't much to take away from the average yards/possession metrics. HOWEVER, there were very few losses that show us as being "outplayed" or "beat down" by our opponent on the field. In fact, at least half of our losses we had more yards and more/equal time of possession than our opponent. In 8 losses we actually average 6 more yards per game with only a -2 minute possession differential. There are only two games that I would consider on-the-field beat downs: '14 Louisville where we were -92 yards and were outplayed across the board and '14 GT where we were -22 on time of possession. all other games were "winnable" based on these stats alone. "So what's missing? Why did we lose then?"
3rd Down Efficiency:
LOSSES (2014-2015)
Louisville 7.7%
Nebraska 40.0%
GT 20.0%
FSU 55.6%
Virginia 41.7%
Pitt 44.4%
USC 42.9%
Cincinnati 26.7%
WINS (2015)
BCC 27.3%
FAU 23.1%
Nebraska 21.4%
Meaning: This stat scares me to death. Not only is our average 3rd down conversion rate <35% in our losses, it has actually DECREASED by almost 20% from 2014 to 2015. We're at 24.6% conversion rate in 2015, among the lowest in the nation. Our YPP and YPG are actually pretty good (overall) - however as soon as we hit 3rd down, or YPP drops by almost 60%. This stat alone is a massive black eye to Golden and especially Coley. It wasn't that we didn't improve; we regressed to a level most high school teams would be ashamed of. 3rd down play calling has created a massive void on this teams ability to stay on the field, as was shown in the second half last night.
Penalties:
LOSSES: Avg. Penalties: 6.6, Avg.Yards: 52.9
WINS: Avg. Penalties: 8.3, Avg.Yards: 69.3
TOTAL: Avg. Penalties: 7.1, Avg.Yards: 57.4
Meaning: While penalties have always been a problem for this team, it's the timing of the penalties that is of most concern to me. In 2015, we've had a total of 31 penalties, averaging nearly 8 per game. Of those 31 penalties, 4 negated Miami touchdowns, 7 others negated Miami 1st downs, and a whopping 8 (26%) have happened in the red zone! I do not have nationwide stats on these, but I'd assume we're among the worst in the nation in all three categories. The lack of focus on "make it count" plays isn't just bad, it's historically bad.
I have a lot more data I've been glaring at all morning (red zone efficiency, etc.). This is the baseline stuff that shows a pattern of not just stagnation, but clear regression in play, especially on the offensive side of the ball. Believe it or not, the DEFENSIVE stats have gotten much better and more consistent this year, but that may all change over the next 4 games.
TL;DR - While Miami yardage and Time of Possession numbers appear show us as being "competitive" if not "at an advantage" in these games, our inability to properly coach/call 3rd down and red zone offense has put this team at a massive disadvantage against nearly every team we will play. We may make statistical history this year, and not in a good way...
Yardage:
LOSSES (2014-2015)
Avg. Yards For: 390
Avg. Yards Against: 384
Avg. Poss. Delta: -3.5 mins
WINS(2015)
Avg. Yards For: 472
Avg. Yards Against: 310
Avg. Poss. Delta: +2 mins
Meaning: There actually isn't much to take away from the average yards/possession metrics. HOWEVER, there were very few losses that show us as being "outplayed" or "beat down" by our opponent on the field. In fact, at least half of our losses we had more yards and more/equal time of possession than our opponent. In 8 losses we actually average 6 more yards per game with only a -2 minute possession differential. There are only two games that I would consider on-the-field beat downs: '14 Louisville where we were -92 yards and were outplayed across the board and '14 GT where we were -22 on time of possession. all other games were "winnable" based on these stats alone. "So what's missing? Why did we lose then?"
3rd Down Efficiency:
LOSSES (2014-2015)
Louisville 7.7%
Nebraska 40.0%
GT 20.0%
FSU 55.6%
Virginia 41.7%
Pitt 44.4%
USC 42.9%
Cincinnati 26.7%
WINS (2015)
BCC 27.3%
FAU 23.1%
Nebraska 21.4%
Meaning: This stat scares me to death. Not only is our average 3rd down conversion rate <35% in our losses, it has actually DECREASED by almost 20% from 2014 to 2015. We're at 24.6% conversion rate in 2015, among the lowest in the nation. Our YPP and YPG are actually pretty good (overall) - however as soon as we hit 3rd down, or YPP drops by almost 60%. This stat alone is a massive black eye to Golden and especially Coley. It wasn't that we didn't improve; we regressed to a level most high school teams would be ashamed of. 3rd down play calling has created a massive void on this teams ability to stay on the field, as was shown in the second half last night.
Penalties:
LOSSES: Avg. Penalties: 6.6, Avg.Yards: 52.9
WINS: Avg. Penalties: 8.3, Avg.Yards: 69.3
TOTAL: Avg. Penalties: 7.1, Avg.Yards: 57.4
Meaning: While penalties have always been a problem for this team, it's the timing of the penalties that is of most concern to me. In 2015, we've had a total of 31 penalties, averaging nearly 8 per game. Of those 31 penalties, 4 negated Miami touchdowns, 7 others negated Miami 1st downs, and a whopping 8 (26%) have happened in the red zone! I do not have nationwide stats on these, but I'd assume we're among the worst in the nation in all three categories. The lack of focus on "make it count" plays isn't just bad, it's historically bad.
I have a lot more data I've been glaring at all morning (red zone efficiency, etc.). This is the baseline stuff that shows a pattern of not just stagnation, but clear regression in play, especially on the offensive side of the ball. Believe it or not, the DEFENSIVE stats have gotten much better and more consistent this year, but that may all change over the next 4 games.
TL;DR - While Miami yardage and Time of Possession numbers appear show us as being "competitive" if not "at an advantage" in these games, our inability to properly coach/call 3rd down and red zone offense has put this team at a massive disadvantage against nearly every team we will play. We may make statistical history this year, and not in a good way...
