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MEGA There’s Still Hope for the ACCCG/CFB Playoffs Mega Merge Thread

Warrior808 said:
The win / loss record is not identical with TX OU
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I agree. I was responding to his question about whether he thought Texas could jump over Oklahoma. NOT ONLY does Texas have an extra loss, BUT ALSO the CFPC has shown that it will not jump a #12 over a #9 solely for "head-to-head victory/loss" reasons.
 
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TheOriginalCane said:
Fair question.

The reason that I pointed out "penalized by 2 spots or more" and "fell out of the playoffs" was to address the full range of your question.

First, I do believe that the CFPC moved Alabama UP to try to placate the SEC. Let's not forget, the CHAIRMAN of the CFCP is the AD at Arkansas, an SEC school. The closer we get to finalizing this deal, the more I think the SEC has become obsessed with getting FIVE teams in, to make up for "only three" last year.

Second, this sets up an intentional or unintentional perception that there might only be "one at-large spot" for UM/ND, and whoever walks out of the Octagon gets that spot. Which is unfair, because I think most people feel that BOTH Miami and Notre Dame should be IN. Certainly, the DISTINCTIONS between us both are minor ASIDE FROM the head-to-head victory.

So, having said that, I believe we can all agree that BYU is in a win-or-die situation. Which then turns our full attention to Alabama. Sadly, the only teams playing in conference championship games of import are: Teams 1-4 (who WILL NOT drop out of the Top 10) and Teams 9 and 11, who are each the very definition of a bubble team. And we know that Bubble Team 11 (BYU) must win to advance. So now let's talk about Bubble Team 9 (Alabama).

Alabama winning would clinch a CFP slot. Alabama LOSING could result in one of three primary outcomes.

A. Alabama does not move from the 9-spot. If BYU won, you'd need BYU to move up to 10 to get this outcome, because if BYU jumped Alabama, there's no way for Alabama to hod the 9-spot. Therefore, it's much more likely that BYU loses, and then inexplicably the CFPC moves NEITHER Miami NOR Notre Dame above Alabama. This is a zone where the "Back 2 Back/Head 2 Head" crew can argue until they turn blue.

B. Alabama moves to the 10-spot. This could happen with a BYU win and a jump above Alabama. But it could also result from Notre Dame re-jumping Alabama. The CFPC might like this because it AVOIDS the "Back 2 Back/Head 2 Head" conundrum, because if ND was 9 and Miami was 11, they are STILL not "Back 2 Back".

C. Alabama moves to the 11-spot or lower. This is the only scenario that seems to allow for BOTH Miami and Notre Dame to finish in the Top 10, thus making the CFP field. The "Back 2 Back/Head 2 Head" issue would only matter for seeding, and not for inclusion/exclusion.

Now to your original question. Do I think Notre Dame jumps Alabama if they get smoked by Georgia? Yes, yes I do.

But to me, the ultimate question is whether Miami ALSO jumps Alabama if they get smoked by Georgia (Outcome C).

---Outcome A would invoke the "Back 2 Back" Theory in theory, but I don't have any confidence that Miami would get the 10-spot over ND. It seems harsh for the CFPC to move an IDLE team down 1-spot and then give that same spot to another IDLE team.

---Outcome B would NOT invoke the "Back 2 Back" Theory and would most likely give the 9-spot to Notre Dame and the 11-spot to Miami.

---Outcome C is ideal, in that BOTH Miami and Notre Dame would be in.

And that's why I'm rooting for UGa to win by 17-27 points (or more).
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Makes complete sense when you break it down like that. I too am hoping for UGA to beat Bama by 3 TDs or more.
 
TheOriginalCane said:
I actually said the opposite of that just a few posts earlier, when I said the Committee says stuff and then does the opposite.

The only thing I've been arguing against is this ridiculous notion some of our fans have that "penalizing championship game losers" will never happen, particularly for the SEC.

And I've proven that it DOES happen, more often than certain people can remember.
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Penalizing them By MISSING THE OLAYOFFS is different then dropping them in seeding. Come on now lmao.

Bama is 100% in the playoffs over us.
 
Calinative said:
Penalizing them By MISSING THE OLAYOFFS is different then dropping them in seeding. Come on now lmao.

Bama is 100% in the playoffs over us.
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Stop with this bull****.

I've already proven it wrong.

Seriously, what is wrong with you? Good lord, 2023...Georgia was penalized FIVE SPOTS and missed the playoffs...for a 3-point loss.

I've proven this over and over and over again, yet you keep repeating your fake and invented "100%" percentage.

Again, I've never said that Bama is IN, I've never said Bama is OUT. Could go either way. But you saying "100%" is just a false statement, completely unsupported by 10 years of facts, data, and history.
 
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GeorgiaHurricane said:
Makes complete sense when you break it down like that. I too am hoping for UGA to beat Bama by 3 TDs or more.
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What's preventing these sec from putting a fix in. Hey UGA if you get up early, you need to let Alabama come back and make it close. UGA has room to keep their first round bye with a close win or even a loss.

Different story for tech
 


So much mind-blowing stuff going on right now. According to everything being said, these people genuinely think Notre Dame is a better team than us today. And the crazy part is they’re not even asking themselves the most basic question:


How is Notre Dame stopping our offense?
They can’t stop Malachi.
They can’t stop our receivers.
They can’t stop the run.
They can’t match our speed.
They can’t win in the trenches.


Offense, defense, special teams — we dominated them already. And if we played again this weekend, we’d dominate them even worse. That’s the part they refuse to acknowledge.


They’re blind to the obvious. They aren’t even bringing up real points. They’re not debating matchups. They’re not talking about personnel. They’re not talking about our growth since that game. Nothing. Just vibes.


Not sure what more we can do as fans except push this narrative, because Mario and our AD absolutely need to be pushing it too. Something has to happen. Miami is the better team, and the country should be reminded of it every single day.
 
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TouchMoney26 said:


So much mind-blowing stuff going on right now. According to everything being said, these people genuinely think Notre Dame is a better team than us today. And the crazy part is they’re not even asking themselves the most basic question:


How is Notre Dame stopping our offense?
They can’t stop Malachi.
They can’t stop our receivers.
They can’t stop the run.
They can’t match our speed.
They can’t win in the trenches.


Offense, defense, special teams — we dominated them already. And if we played again this weekend, we’d dominate them even worse. That’s the part they refuse to acknowledge.


They’re blind to the obvious. They aren’t even bringing up real points. They’re not debating matchups. They’re not talking about personnel. They’re not talking about our growth since that game. Nothing. Just vibes.


Not sure what more we can do as fans except push this narrative, because Mario and our AD absolutely need to be pushing it too. Something has to happen. Miami is the better team, and the country should be reminded of it every single day.
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Coach did pretty well here laying out or case vs. ND. The whole thing is unfortunate as we should be in and so should ND (8 & 9 spots), but the committee has two 2-loss SEC teams there so here we are. Hopefully things break our way this weekend for a change and they do the right thing putting us in whether it's over Bama or ND.
 
I think we just got really unlucky with the timing of the first rankings happening after we had just gone 1-2 in the previous 3 weeks, and the committee never took a step back and reset their view of us. that coupled with our history of collapsing in november so they never really took us seriously as a threat. we started marching up but were at such a disadvantage from the start that we are still underranked
 
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htownkidd said:
SVP preaching the gospel on his poscast deal with Stanford Steve today. The whole committee is a group of ******* morons and all of this **** is a joke.
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I listened to that too. Those are 2 very passionate, veteran, totally unbiased dudes and they’re just baffled how you can put ND in and not Miami. People are starting to wake up.
 
OrangeBowlMagic said:
I listened to that too. Those are 2 very passionate, veteran, totally unbiased dudes and they’re just baffled how you can put ND in and not Miami. People are starting to wake up.
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it's amazing how every commentator and non-ND homer (and even some of them too) are saying we should be in over them. yet miraculously, the people who matter seem to be too caught up in the calculators to care
 
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