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MEGA There’s Still Hope for the ACCCG/CFB Playoffs Mega Merge Thread

MumbleRap said:
It needs to be perfect storm, it needs to be Bama win AND BYU loss by double digits.

If BYU loses by 9 or less I predict the committee of losers to come out and say “quality loss”. They gave Miami a window, but that **** is so small.
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Am just gonna bow out and watch games and pray that we get in on account that I just died by internet argument in this thread. As the great Kenny Rogers sang:

"You got to know when to hold 'em
Know when to fold 'em
Know when to walk away
And know when to run"
 
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tdjones34 said:
It's 100% correct the sec champ loser would fall and bama was 100% out being ranked 10th with us next
But moving them to 9 was corrupt and basically assured they are in
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Agreed.

The CFP tried to make it harder to occur...what has occurred 4 times in the past 10 years.
 
MumbleRap said:
It needs to be perfect storm, it needs to be Bama win AND BYU loss by double digits.

If BYU loses by 9 or less I predict the committee of losers to come out and say “quality loss”. They gave Miami a window, but that **** is so small.
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I doubt it. BYU is 11-1 and currently out behind multiple 10 win teams. They can lose by 3 and they are moving back IMO. Miami just needs a bama win/ close loss and BYU loss and run game on.
 
TheOriginalCane said:
That STILL might happen. But it won't be based on some fake and inaccurate rule like "the CFPC will not penalize any conference championship game losers".

Alabama could lose and the CFPC might only penalize them one spot. Which is, of course, why they put Alabama over Notre Dame this week.

I realize the fear that Sankey strikes in the feeble hearts of the CFPC. However, we need to root for Alabama to **** the bed so hard that the CFPC cannot ignore the stench.
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I have a legit question and maybe you have covered this and I didnt see it. Do you think ND would jump Bama if they get smoked by UGA? If that happens it would be bad news for us and that is my opinion that they will still keep Bama in the playoffs. Legit question
 
Just thought about something, tell me if I’m crazy…

IF
1. BYU loses
2. Bama wins

Does anyone think Texas will jump over OU?

Just think about it, BYU losing could make them fall 1-3 spots. Bama winning pushes them into top 4 almost certainly.

That means it could go
9. OU
10. Miami or ND
11. Miami or ND
12. Texas
13. Vandy or BYU
14. Vandy or BYU

So let me get this straight Texas jumps a 2 loss Vandy due to H2H… and conveniently the committee looks at pods of 4 for the decision. So OU and Texas would be looked at together. Does a 3 loss Texas jump a 2 loss OU who has looked ****** ? I mean they just had them jump candy for the same reason. And the betting markets DID have Texas move significantly higher…

If that were to happen though the question would be does it remove OU from playoff or would they keep OU in playoff to bump both Miami and ND out?


Just saying. I wouldn’t put it past this committee
 
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Understanding that in playoff history they have dropped the SECCG loser out many times.. but that was in a 4 team playoff.

This is only the second year of a 12 team playoff. We have one season for reference, and last year can’t even be sampled. You had a #2Texas (11-1) lose by three in overtime to #5Georgia (10-2). They simply swapped rankings in the final playoff ranking. Neither was on the actual bubble of being kicked out of the 12 team playoff.

This week’s circumstances is completely new territory and I cannot picture the committee dropping Bama to any more than #10 if they lose to Georgia this weekend. UNLESS they get absolutely boatraced. 20+ type point differential.

This is completely new territory and regardless of what happens to BYU it’ll be:

Bama win: They go up, UGA falls a few but not below ND. We have a punchers chance to get in so long as BYU loses. We’ll be rubbing elbows @ 10 & 11.

Bama loses by less than 20: they go to 10 and Notre Dame back to 9. We are ****ed.

This is not based on logic, this is based on the committee’s past egregiousness as it is the best predictor for the future.
 
So a Vandy Reporter for 247 is saying that Clark Lea is having his players pack a bag incase a team wants to play this Saturday. Could that be us?
 
GeorgiaHurricane said:
I have a legit question and maybe you have covered this and I didnt see it. Do you think ND would jump Bama if they get smoked by UGA? If that happens it would be bad news for us and that is my opinion that they will still keep Bama in the playoffs. Legit question
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Fair question.

The reason that I pointed out "penalized by 2 spots or more" and "fell out of the playoffs" was to address the full range of your question.

First, I do believe that the CFPC moved Alabama UP to try to placate the SEC. Let's not forget, the CHAIRMAN of the CFCP is the AD at Arkansas, an SEC school. The closer we get to finalizing this deal, the more I think the SEC has become obsessed with getting FIVE teams in, to make up for "only three" last year.

Second, this sets up an intentional or unintentional perception that there might only be "one at-large spot" for UM/ND, and whoever walks out of the Octagon gets that spot. Which is unfair, because I think most people feel that BOTH Miami and Notre Dame should be IN. Certainly, the DISTINCTIONS between us both are minor ASIDE FROM the head-to-head victory.

So, having said that, I believe we can all agree that BYU is in a win-or-die situation. Which then turns our full attention to Alabama. Sadly, the only teams playing in conference championship games of import are: Teams 1-4 (who WILL NOT drop out of the Top 10) and Teams 9 and 11, who are each the very definition of a bubble team. And we know that Bubble Team 11 (BYU) must win to advance. So now let's talk about Bubble Team 9 (Alabama).

Alabama winning would clinch a CFP slot. Alabama LOSING could result in one of three primary outcomes.

A. Alabama does not move from the 9-spot. If BYU won, you'd need BYU to move up to 10 to get this outcome, because if BYU jumped Alabama, there's no way for Alabama to hod the 9-spot. Therefore, it's much more likely that BYU loses, and then inexplicably the CFPC moves NEITHER Miami NOR Notre Dame above Alabama. This is a zone where the "Back 2 Back/Head 2 Head" crew can argue until they turn blue.

B. Alabama moves to the 10-spot. This could happen with a BYU win and a jump above Alabama. But it could also result from Notre Dame re-jumping Alabama. The CFPC might like this because it AVOIDS the "Back 2 Back/Head 2 Head" conundrum, because if ND was 9 and Miami was 11, they are STILL not "Back 2 Back".

C. Alabama moves to the 11-spot or lower. This is the only scenario that seems to allow for BOTH Miami and Notre Dame to finish in the Top 10, thus making the CFP field. The "Back 2 Back/Head 2 Head" issue would only matter for seeding, and not for inclusion/exclusion.

Now to your original question. Do I think Notre Dame jumps Alabama if they get smoked by Georgia? Yes, yes I do.

But to me, the ultimate question is whether Miami ALSO jumps Alabama if they get smoked by Georgia (Outcome C).

---Outcome A would invoke the "Back 2 Back" Theory in theory, but I don't have any confidence that Miami would get the 10-spot over ND. It seems harsh for the CFPC to move an IDLE team down 1-spot and then give that same spot to another IDLE team.

---Outcome B would NOT invoke the "Back 2 Back" Theory and would most likely give the 9-spot to Notre Dame and the 11-spot to Miami.

---Outcome C is ideal, in that BOTH Miami and Notre Dame would be in.

And that's why I'm rooting for UGa to win by 17-27 points (or more).
 
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Calinative said:
Just thought about something, tell me if I’m crazy…

That means it could go
9. OU
10. Miami or ND
11. Miami or ND
12. Texas
13. Vandy or BYU
14. Vandy or BYU
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How is:

9. Oklahoma
12. Texas

ANY DIFFERENT FROM

9. Notre Dame
12: Miami

The CFPC already chose NOT to bump #12 above #9 based on "Head 2 Head".

Why would the CFPC choose to bump #12 above #9 JUST WEEKS AFTER THEY REFUSED TO DO SO?

Makes no sense at all.
 
TheOriginalCane said:
How is:

9. Oklahoma
12. Texas

ANY DIFFERENT FROM

9. Notre Dame
12: Miami

The CFPC already chose NOT to bump #12 above #9 based on "Head 2 Head".

Why would the CFPC choose to bump #12 above #9 JUST WEEKS AFTER THEY REFUSED TO DO SO?

Makes no sense at all.
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They like Notre Dame and Don’t Like us. But even more than they like us and ND they like the SEC.

You keep acting like what the committee does has ever made all that much sense apart from A) Giving SEC benefit B) just looking at Game Control and SOS C) Picking who they want and justifying it how lever possibly (like by ranking 16-25 to help their cfp rankings).
 
Calinative said:
You keep acting like what the committee does has ever made all that much sense apart from A) Giving SEC benefit B) just looking at Game Control and SOS C) Picking who they want and justifying it how lever possibly (like by ranking 16-25 to help their cfp rankings).
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I actually said the opposite of that just a few posts earlier, when I said the Committee says stuff and then does the opposite.

The only thing I've been arguing against is this ridiculous notion some of our fans have that "penalizing championship game losers" will never happen, particularly for the SEC.

And I've proven that it DOES happen, more often than certain people can remember.
 
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