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MEGA There’s Still Hope for the ACCCG/CFB Playoffs Mega Merge Thread

lfoliva9988 said:
Just beat VaTech and Pitt!!! Simple as that.
We aren’t getting left out at 10-2 especially if ND wins out.
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This is what I am hoping for.

But the down side to having a committee selecting a tournament field is that they can come up with any BS to justify their selections and nobody will ever challenge them.

Outside of F$U and their lawsuit that went nowhere fast.
 
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It all starts here:

IMG_3935.jpeg

Need these to fall our way. Which is really not a major ask.
 
AUcane said:
mizzou has almost no shot. Freshman QB on the road. LSU is our only shot. OU might have very well took our CFP spot.
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They put up 49 and 480 yards on a much improved Miss st team yesterday.

But don’t take my word for it. Current spread is OU -9 (-8.5 FD, -7.5 espn).

Mizzou can very well win that game.
 
Alright fellas, here’s how the playoff setup actually works this year. Only five conference champs get auto-bids, the five highest-ranked conference champs. After that, the committee fills in the other seven at-large spots.

Right now, those auto-bids would come from:
  1. Big Ten
  2. SEC
  3. Big 12
  4. Probably James Madison (crazy right lol)
  5. ACC
After those five lock in, we’re basically looking at three spots left, and here is why:

6. Indiana, the Big Ten title loser at 11–1

7. The SEC title loser, either Georgia or Texas A&M

8. Oregon with only one loss

9. Ole Miss with only one loss


Now, about BYU. If they lose to Texas Tech again in the championship game, they’re out.

So once those shake out, the final three at-large spots are basically between:

Notre Dame
Miami
Oklahoma
Alabama

Here’s the part the committee can’t mess up:

If head-to-head actually matters like they claim, then Miami has to be ahead of Notre Dame this week. Period.

Oklahoma already beat Alabama, so by that same logic, Alabama should be out.

Now here’s the thing about bubble teams, and this is where it gets real simple. If you’re not a conference champion, then you’re automatically a bubble team. And when you’re a bubble team, head-to-head losses matter the most. You can’t cherry-pick it, you can’t spin it. It is what it is. If you lose head-to-head, you’re automatically eliminated. Bubble teams don’t get mulligans. You don’t get to dodge the conference title game, avoid the risk, and then act like you deserve the benefit of the doubt over teams that actually went out and won something.

And on top of that, you can’t say Notre Dame is one of the top eight teams in the country when Miami beat them head-to-head and they have the same exact record. How can you leave Miami out? Miami has the best win of any bubble team, a win over a team the committee is ranking insanely high. So how can Notre Dame be ranked top 10, used as the reason to prop up someone else’s resume, but Miami, the team that actually beat them, gets left out of the playoff? No other bubble team has a better win than Miami. None. That makes absolutely no sense.

And while we’re at it, common opponents matter too. Florida State beat Alabama. Miami beat Florida State. Alabama lost by multiple touchdowns. So again, it is what it is. If you’re a bubble team, everything counts: head-to-head, common opponents, margin, all of it. You can’t ignore that just because the helmet says Alabama.

Same thing with Alabama overall. It makes zero sense to have Alabama in the playoff when they already lost to Oklahoma. It’s one or the other. Either Oklahoma gets in, or Alabama is out. Simple. No mental gymnastics.

If they rank it correctly this week, Miami should be in a really good spot heading into the final weekend.
 
It’s gonna take mass chaos for us to get in. We’ll be ranked 14th this week. Only one team ahead of us lost, that was Texas. If you’ve somehow convinced yourself that maybe 10-2 Miami is getting in above 10-2 Bama, get off the Internet. It’s not happening. Miami isn’t even getting in over Vandy if they’re 10-2.
 
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edge said:
I think you will see us both in if we win out. They will find a way because they know the public outrage will be off the charts. And they already said Miami passes the eye test. It’s almost like they were saying, just do your job and you will be fine.
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This past Tuesday night after the release of the second rankings, Kirk Herbstreit did say something about how Miami shouldn’t be worried because Miami and Notre Dame could get in.
 
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TheOriginalCane said:
Simplified for both CFP and ACC-CG

We should be ranked #14 in the CFP this week, jumping Texas. Maybe #13 if we jump Utah (we both beat 5-5 teams, Miami by a bigger margin).


Miami wins out.


Week 13 - Next week:
--Cincy to beat BYU - CFP
--Mizzou to beat OK - CFP (only need 1 OK loss)
--Syracuse to beat ND - CFP (only need 1 ND loss)
--K-State to beat Utah - CFP (only need 1 Utah loss)
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--Louisville to beat SMU - ACC-CG (need 2 SMU losses)
--UNC to beat Duke - ACC-CG (only need 1 Duke loss)
--Pitt to beat GaTech - ACC-CG


Week 14 - Final week:
--TN to beat Vandy - CFP
--LSU to beat OK - CFP (only need 1 OK loss)
--Stanford to beat ND - CFP (only need 1 ND loss)
--Kansas to beat Utah - CFP (only need 1 Utah loss)
--Auburn to beat Alabama - CFP
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--VaTech to beat UVa - ACC-CG
--Cal to beat SMU - ACC-CG (need 2 SMU losses)
--Wake to beat Duke - ACC-CG (only need 1 Duke loss)


For ACC purposes, the above outcomes would leave 4 teams tied with 6-2 ACC records, GaTech, UVa, Pitt, and Miami.
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I dug in and found a better ACC scenario:
-Pitt over GT is do or die (7 PM).
-SMU splits 2
-Duke splits 2
-VT>UVA or UVA>VT*

*If UVA wins we need Stanford over Cal, or, Syracuse over BC in the "sideways" games.
 
I also hate to break it to you guys that if Michigan wins out, they’re jumping us and everybody else and getting in.
 
scrantoncane said:
The entire media is talking about the ACC maybe getting none in. The ACC is suffering from a bad perception problem, rightly or wrongly.

ND blowing out Pitt was bad. Now if we don’t blow them out, it’s a narrative that ND improved from opening game. And they are the most prized tv darling of them all.

Similarly to how our players constantly get overhyped around here, so does the Miami brand. We haven’t done a thing in almost 25 years. ESPN and the SEC are in bed together.

Not to mention what the committee already told us when they ranked Miami 18.

We need chaos to get in, whether through the ACC or at large. We didn’t get enough of it this week. There’s still 2 weeks to go. I’m not giving up. But we need help.
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the acc does suck. it isnt a perception problem. the league isnt good. the only team the committee respects is miami right now within the acc.

also, when the sec wins and dominates year in year out on average, there is no bias that is required. they routinely have the best talent and win the most

that said, they already hinted at miami is in if they take care of business. thats why you saw a jump to 15. being at 18 or 15 doesn't make a diff. the committee is gonna put their 7 best at large teams regardless of where they are in the ranking right now.
 
Jassid82 said:
Yeah I am baffled that anyone could think Texas would beat TAMU. That would be a massive upset. Texas has proven time and time again they are not a good team at all. Media trying to “speak it into existence” that they could beat TAMU is weird.
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It Texas wins, it only happens because it’s a rivalry game which can sometimes normalize talent differentials. But there’s a minority chance that this happens; I believe the game is a home encounter for the Aggies. They’ll be hyped up to defeat Texas.
 
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