BoxingRobes
Junior
- Joined
- Aug 24, 2013
- Messages
- 12,239
I don't want to re-hash a lot of other topics, but I think we need to revisit something I was pounding the table for in the off-season.
What we saw in 2017 was a mirage. It was a statistical anomaly. Miami played over their head and the result was an 10-1 regular season. Why? Turnovers. No ****, yeah. I get it. But a point needs to be made...you can not create a culture of turnovers and your success - long term - can not be predicated on your defense creating turnovers. You'll all agree now, I am sure. But this was not the narrative over the summer.
Here is an article from Phil Steele. Its one of his big talking points when talking about Team Win numbers going into a new season. The article focuses on the NFL, but there are College Football notes as well.
http://plus.philsteele.com/Blogs/Blog_PDFs_Images/2018/DBJuly24/TO_Equal_Turnaround.pdf
tl;dr - Miami was +13 in Turnover Margin, led by T-3rd 31 total takeaways by the defense. 65% of College teams with +11 turnovers, according to Phil Steele, see a regression. Turnovers are good fortune. Its not a repeatable
This isn't a defense bashing thread. The defense has done their part and then some. Without the defense, this team is likely closer to .500 over the past two seasons. Look at the past 11 games (5-6) to get a better idea of what this team is like, really. A defense first team that has a horribly inept offense.
This really is more of a team oriented discussion. One where, we've relied on the prop - The Turnover Chain - to generate any and all momentum by this team. That is more of an indictment on the offense. Where over the past two seasons, any success we've had is a result of good fortune created by the defense. Its like clockwork, especially against teams in the Power 5. If Miami creates a + turnover margin...we are winning. If we do not...we're taking an L in an increasingly embarrassing rate. This is not a successful model for winning football and we're in Year 3 and there is no end in sight, especially because even in games with =<+1 turnover margin, the turnovers Miami does get, doesn't result in Miami's offense creating points off those turnovers.
In games where Miami has >=+1 turnover margin, over the past two seasons, Miami is
4-0 (13-1 since '17 - loss @ Pitt)
In games where Miami was equal or in the negative in turnover margin
1-3 (2-5 since '17 - win v. FIU and Toledo in '17).
Overall point...things are going to get worse before they get better if they get better at all...and I don't believe they will - Miami's struggles on the recruiting trail and Mark Richt's archaic offense will continue to see Miami produce subpar seasons because Miami can not continue to rely on turnovers to generate ALL of the momentum they get.
What we saw in 2017 was a mirage. It was a statistical anomaly. Miami played over their head and the result was an 10-1 regular season. Why? Turnovers. No ****, yeah. I get it. But a point needs to be made...you can not create a culture of turnovers and your success - long term - can not be predicated on your defense creating turnovers. You'll all agree now, I am sure. But this was not the narrative over the summer.
Here is an article from Phil Steele. Its one of his big talking points when talking about Team Win numbers going into a new season. The article focuses on the NFL, but there are College Football notes as well.
http://plus.philsteele.com/Blogs/Blog_PDFs_Images/2018/DBJuly24/TO_Equal_Turnaround.pdf
tl;dr - Miami was +13 in Turnover Margin, led by T-3rd 31 total takeaways by the defense. 65% of College teams with +11 turnovers, according to Phil Steele, see a regression. Turnovers are good fortune. Its not a repeatable
This isn't a defense bashing thread. The defense has done their part and then some. Without the defense, this team is likely closer to .500 over the past two seasons. Look at the past 11 games (5-6) to get a better idea of what this team is like, really. A defense first team that has a horribly inept offense.
This really is more of a team oriented discussion. One where, we've relied on the prop - The Turnover Chain - to generate any and all momentum by this team. That is more of an indictment on the offense. Where over the past two seasons, any success we've had is a result of good fortune created by the defense. Its like clockwork, especially against teams in the Power 5. If Miami creates a + turnover margin...we are winning. If we do not...we're taking an L in an increasingly embarrassing rate. This is not a successful model for winning football and we're in Year 3 and there is no end in sight, especially because even in games with =<+1 turnover margin, the turnovers Miami does get, doesn't result in Miami's offense creating points off those turnovers.
In games where Miami has >=+1 turnover margin, over the past two seasons, Miami is
4-0 (13-1 since '17 - loss @ Pitt)
In games where Miami was equal or in the negative in turnover margin
1-3 (2-5 since '17 - win v. FIU and Toledo in '17).
Overall point...things are going to get worse before they get better if they get better at all...and I don't believe they will - Miami's struggles on the recruiting trail and Mark Richt's archaic offense will continue to see Miami produce subpar seasons because Miami can not continue to rely on turnovers to generate ALL of the momentum they get.
