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The Ole Miss Thread

Kirby Smart and a very average UGA team had the W in the bag but let Ole Miss win due to terrible decision making and play calling. So if UGA can beat Ole **** twice (earlier in the season and what should have been a W last night), why again would anyone prefer to have played UGA? What’s the logic here? Do you really think UGA just matches up better with Ole **** than we do and could handle Ole Miss- but we can’t?
 
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flips said:
UL & SMU Games:

Offensive drives in which we ran an offensive play in the opponent's territory: 15
Drives with 0 points: 7
Points per Drive: 2.67

Last 4 games of regular season: (garbage-time drives with Emory excluded)

Offensive drives in which we ran an offensive play in the opponent's territory: 27
Drives with 0 points: 5
Points per Drive: 4.96

A&M + OSU Games:

Offensive drives in which we ran an offensive play in the opponent's territory: 10
Drives with 0 points: 5
Points per Drive: 2.7

It's becoming a problem again. My primary concern with the Ole Miss game is that we will have empty drives while we move the ball against their porous defense, and they will generate enough points to get ahead by 2 scores. Our offense isn't built for success there, and a turnover would be catastrophic. We need to be more efficient scoring points or our defense has to be amazing limiting Ole Miss scoring points. Hopefully both.
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This X 100.

The running game needs to be gaining at least yards a lot.

But even that I don’t think is enough.
It’s difficult to just 4 to 6 yards your way down the field over and over again against any defense.

The passing game needs to create explosives. Not necessarily bombs down the field.

But more like the over the middle passes to Daniels and Toney against FSU. 8 to 11 yard passes into space, so those guys could add another 25 to 35 yards in YAC.

Running a service academy offense against Ole Miss sounds good in theory. But it’s very difficult in execution. And if we don’t execute it to perfection, it’s putting a lot of pressure on our defense against maybe the best offense in CFB.
 
Handsome Squidbum said:
Kirby Smart and a very average UGA team had the W in the bag but let Ole Miss win due to terrible decision making and play calling. So if UGA can beat Ole **** twice (earlier in the season and what should have been a W last night), why again would anyone prefer to have played UGA? What’s the logic here? Do you really think UGA just matches up better with Ole **** than we do and could handle Ole Miss- but we can’t?
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Last night should not have been a W.

Ole Miss dominated the down to down success rate.

SP+ has an adjusted score of UGA -15.6 points based on the down to down and explosive play domination by Ole Miss if you played that game the same way 100 times.

Some of you’ll have to stop fooling yourself about Ole Miss.

That was a UGA team that every analytic power poll has ranked and the Top 5 to 10. And Ole Miss thoroughly out played them.
 
mossmadness said:
Last night should not have been a W.

Ole Miss dominated the down to down success rate.

SP+ has an adjusted score of UGA -15.6 points based on the down to down and explosive play domination by Ole Miss if you played that game the same way 100 times.

Some of you’ll have to stop fooling yourself about Ole Miss.

That was a UGA team that every analytic power poll has ranked and the Top 5 to 10. And Ole Miss thoroughly out played them.
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Paralysis by analysis. That same SP+ that said we had a 30% post game win expectancy against OSU. Use your eyes. That’s fantasy land.

I’m certainly not downplaying how good Ole Miss is. But that 4th quarter did all the heavy lifting.
 
flips said:
UL & SMU Games:

Offensive drives in which we ran an offensive play in the opponent's territory: 15
Drives with 0 points: 7
Points per Drive: 2.67

Last 4 games of regular season: (garbage-time drives with Emory excluded)

Offensive drives in which we ran an offensive play in the opponent's territory: 27
Drives with 0 points: 5
Points per Drive: 4.96

A&M + OSU Games:

Offensive drives in which we ran an offensive play in the opponent's territory: 10
Drives with 0 points: 5
Points per Drive: 2.7

It's becoming a problem again. My primary concern with the Ole Miss game is that we will have empty drives while we move the ball against their porous defense, and they will generate enough points to get ahead by 2 scores. Our offense isn't built for success there, and a turnover would be catastrophic. We need to be more efficient scoring points or our defense has to be amazing limiting Ole Miss scoring points. Hopefully both.
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I see what you’re saying but some things needed to be added here and you’re doing what the media did all last week before we doubled just on offense what OSU has allowed all year. Including the mighty Indiana.

AM we weren’t throwing in that wind and eveyone knew it and yet we still banged in the running game. It’s on Dawson for not going to it more. Also 105k fans as well 3 missed kicks that was a 19-3 game with us adding just that. The offense struggled but it was play calling Dawson admitted that.

OSU was a fumble and a bad block away from being 21-0 at half.

And please do not put ole miss defense in the same stratosphere as OSU and AM. Because they are garbage. And he man handled both them on the lines. All we have to do is not turn it over and Beck continue to play the way he has and we’re good. They won’t score more than 21 on us. I’m very confident in that. Our defense is another level then what they have seen.
We could lose the game of course. But more than likely we will not.
 
NC_Canes_11 said:
Paralysis by analysis. That same SP+ that said we had a 30% post game win expectancy against OSU. Use your eyes. That’s fantasy land.

I’m certainly not downplaying how good Ole Miss is. But that 4th quarter did all the heavy lifting.
Click to expand...

“Use your eyes” is the slogan of people who think they are the smartest person in the room,

I’m smart enough to know I’m not.
 
mossmadness said:
Last night should not have been a W.

Ole Miss dominated the down to down success rate.

SP+ has an adjusted score of UGA -15.6 points based on the down to down and explosive play domination by Ole Miss if you played that game the same way 100 times.

Some of you’ll have to stop fooling yourself about Ole Miss.

That was a UGA team that every analytic power poll has ranked and the Top 5 to 10. And Ole Miss thoroughly out played them.
Click to expand...

UGA went into halftime with a 2 score lead which ole miss to its credit erased due almost entirely to hitting deep shots (40+ yard passes) multiple times, which is very unlikely to happen against us unless Jeremiah Smith portals in.

and even then, UGA had the ball at the ole **** 3 yard line with under 1 minute left in the 4th quarter to take the lead. They score a TD there instead of a FG and the game is over. They were 3 yards and 55 seconds from a W despite looking like garbage the entire 2nd half.
 
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U_Canes said:
To me the whole thing devalues the playoffs. All these coaches are bailing. Players transferring out of the team and signing with new teams during the middle of the playoffs

It’s a mess
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I mean to be fair, most of them made their decisions weeks ago. Lane would still be coaching ole miss if they let him. Kevin smith, George McDonald etc all those guys are going to coach against us if ole miss lets them but if they don’t there’s nothin they can do.

Charlie Weiss jr is a big boy he can scout us just fine; Joe judge was a former nfl head coach and he’s their qb coach. It’s obviously not ideal and it’s chaos I agree — just saying ole Miss has reinforcements & it’s hard to envision a playoff head coach leaving being a frequent occurrence

Don’t really see it happening on a large scale at the other three schools.
 
mossmadness said:
This X 100.

The running game needs to be gaining at least yards a lot.

But even that I don’t think is enough.
It’s difficult to just 4 to 6 yards your way down the field over and over again against any defense.

The passing game needs to create explosives. Not necessarily bombs down the field.

But more like the over the middle passes to Daniels and Toney against FSU. 8 to 11 yard passes into space, so those guys could add another 25 to 35 yards in YAC.

Running a service academy offense against Ole Miss sounds good in theory. But it’s very difficult in execution. And if we don’t execute it to perfection, it’s putting a lot of pressure on our defense against maybe the best offense in CFB.
Click to expand...
I haven't spent much time thinking about how we should attack them offensively, but what you're suggesting sounds good to me. We're going to be able to run the ball on them (even Tulane in the playoff started the game rushing for 80+ at more than 5ypc with their RBs and QB before the game got out of hand, and they weren't a great rushing team), but I don't love our chances to win this game if our longest offensive play is less than 20 yards like it was against OSU.

Broadly, I think we need an offensive plan that gets us minimum of 30 points. First 2 playoff games our defense held the opponents to far fewer points than we could have reasonably expected during prep. I would be elated if that were the case against Ole Miss, but I don't expect it. We should assume they will score up to 4 TDs worth of points against our defense, IMO.
 
Handsome Squidbum said:
UGA went into halftime with a 2 score lead which ole miss to its credit erased due almost entirely to hitting deep shots (40+ yard passes) multiple times, which is very unlikely to happen against us unless Jeremiah Smith portals in.

and even then, UGA had the ball at the ole **** 3 yard line with under 1 minute left in the 4th quarter to take the lead. They score a TD there instead of a FG and the game is over. They were 3 yards and 55 seconds from a W despite looking like garbage the entire 2nd half.
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If UGA-Ole Miss played next weekend, you betting money on UGA getting a fumble scoop TD?
 
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NDfan said:
This is probably the right thread for this...

Ole Miss is not good. You guys will crush them. Honestly, I really don't think it will be close. You are so much better along both lines. Have you seen Ole Miss scores? The SEC is obviously down and Ole Miss struggled all season with it. I like Chambliss. I think he is a playmaker, but I don't think it will be enough. I honestly think this has something like 38-17 written all over it. That said, I was really impressed with the Ole Miss kicker. I think the title game will be a good one, but I don't see anyone in this field on the level of Miami, tbh. Oh, for a Miami/ND rematch for the title. That would have been epic!
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Would have been amazing.
 
mossmadness said:
“Use your eyes” is the slogan of people who think they are the smartest person in the room,

I’m smart enough to know I’m not.
Click to expand...
I appreciate what you doing here. I think there's a degree of truth to it, many of us are probably taking Ole Miss a little bit lighter than we should. However that is a very beatable team and not one that particularly scares me. We have a lot of advantages. For them it comes down to a tricky offensive scheme and that QB playing perfectly. I'll take it.
 
ShadowSpring said:
I appreciate what you doing here. I think there's a degree of truth to it, many of us are probably taking Ole Miss a little bit lighter than we should. However that is a very beatable team and not one that particularly scares me. We have a lot of advantages. For them it comes down to a tricky offensive scheme and that QB playing perfectly. I'll take it.
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I agree.
Analytic models tend to have the game as a coin flip.
Any team you’re a coin flip game against, is beatable.
 
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