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The National Champion is going to be

Loose Cannon

Junior
Joined
Jul 25, 2017
Messages
3,827
The Blue Chip Index, huh? If I didn't know any better I'd say that was about a 750 word essay that could be summed up with, "Teams with better players have a good shot of winning." Gee thanks, Miss Cleo. I hope you didn't strain anything divining that tidbit out of thin air for us.

tenor.gif
 

58straight

Junior
Joined
Aug 12, 2012
Messages
1,497
One of ten teams apparently

https://www.sbnation.com/a/cfb-preview-2017/blue-chip-ratio

I'd like to go back the last ten years just to see if this is consistent.

they did the same article last year i posted it, I believe they've said the numbers hold up going back 10 years. I'm not sure what percentage miami is at now but i expect coach richt to have the team roster above 50% 4 and 5 star players at the pace he is going.
 

Juancane

Freshman
Joined
Dec 16, 2013
Messages
1,543
The Blue Chip Index, huh? If I didn't know any better I'd say that was about a 750 word essay that could be summed up with, "Teams with better players have a good shot of winning." Gee thanks, Miss Cleo. I hope you didn't strain anything divining that tidbit out of thin air for us.

tenor.gif

bet you'd be quoting that crap if it listed miami........
 

RepTheGables

Energy Vampire
Joined
Jan 23, 2012
Messages
4,159
That's one of many metrics. I don't know that "Blue Chip Ratio" has been demonstrated to be a better predictor of success than any other metric. It also doesn't say much about the two-way relationship between winning and recruiting.
 

OrdunaDrive

Freshman
Joined
Jun 27, 2016
Messages
561
Also depends on which recruiting service you use. I didn't see where the author stated which service he used. Since Richt took the reins, we've signed 24 ESPN 4* and 18 3* or lower. In the last 2 Golden classes, we were 22 4* and 26 3* or lower. After this goon squad we have coming in for 18, we ought to be in the Blue Chip Club.
 

Awsi Dooger

Junior
Joined
Jan 20, 2012
Messages
2,674
Terrific article and angle. Emphasizes big picture logic and ruins the Happy Adjusters. I posted last week on the college forum of a Dolphins site that Alabama should be the preseason #1 every season in this era, as long as they keep up the surreal recruiting pace and rare defensive intensity. Otherwise you're making subjective decisions where they don't belong.

Subjectivity and current form are the tools of fools. When I arrived in Las Vegas in 1984 I noticed immediately that everyone was applying subjectivity and current form to wager on games, and virtually everyone was losing and whining. Huh. Some kind of disconnect going on here. Since the subjectivity is unlikely to improve dramatically, maybe the idea is to jettison subjectivity as much as possible.

That's where the wonderful systems come into play. Of course, you have to find them. It wasn't as easy in that era because I was doing it all manually using every record book I could find. Not until years later did I wisely invest in a Quadra 610 and figured out how to compile spreadsheets. I found lots of angles like the one identified in the article. At one point I had far too many of them and there were inevitable conflicts, some systems pointing to one team and others to the other team. I had to dial back to the most basic and most reliable.

Ohio State, as indicated, is on an amazing recruiting run itself. That has been somewhat camouflaged the past two seasons due to the staggering ineptitude of Little Game Barrett at quarterback. Meyer's offense always relies on high volume rushing attempts which paves the way for effective lethal passing. Virtually every starting quarterback under Meyer has managed huge yards per attempt. Alex Smith averaged 8.9 YPA for his career under Meyer at Utah. Tebow was 9.3 at Florida. At Ohio State every starting quarterback has been above 8.0 yards per attempt except Little Game each of the past two seasons. Barrett was 6.7 in both 2015 and 2016.

That is beyond disgraceful, given the overwhelming NFL talent on that roster. It should have made Little Game the subject of national scrutiny and ridicule throughout, but somehow he dodged it completely. Barrett was at his worst in the most meaningful games, like 2.9 YPA in the home upset loss to Michigan State as 14 point underdog in 2015, the game that kept an absolutely stacked Buckeye team out of the playoffs. Then last year Little Game managed 3.8 YPA in the playoff shutout loss to Clemson. That Clemson team had excellent talent but was hardly a juggernaut defensively, as evidenced by the Pittsburgh game and several other games. A loss wasn't particularly unexpected but to be shut out was Little Game at his finest.

The bizarre aspect is that Barrett was among the quarterbacks who managed the 8.0+ under Meyer. He had an excellent 9.0 YPA as freshman starter in 2014. So somehow Barrett bypassed the 8s and 7s completely all the way down to 6.7 twice.

I am unaware of a similar inexplicable decline in college football history.

Anyway, as a probability guy I would expect Barrett to rebound sharply this season. If he does not, and puts up anything resembling that 6.7 again, Barrett deserves to be one of the true laughingstock quarterbacks in college football history. He almost singlehandedly restrained those two great Buckeye rosters of 2015 and 2016. Cardale Jones was averaging well above 8 YPA in 2015 when Urban Meyer made the masochistic subjective decision to change quarterbacks.
 

Awsi Dooger

Junior
Joined
Jan 20, 2012
Messages
2,674
I forgot to mention that if the angle fails this year and some team outside the 10 wins the national championship, no doubt the adjusters will flock back to this thread to mock matters.

That's so typical of the outlier crew, no grasp whatsoever of the wide scope, not when they can tunnel vision the here and now.

I'll merely use it as a guide next season and beyond, the same way I use the amazing preseason ratings to identify undervalued teams late each season and in the bowl games.
 
D

deleted1998

Guest
Terrific article and angle. Emphasizes big picture logic and ruins the Happy Adjusters. I posted last week on the college forum of a Dolphins site that Alabama should be the preseason #1 every season in this era, as long as they keep up the surreal recruiting pace and rare defensive intensity. Otherwise you're making subjective decisions where they don't belong.

Subjectivity and current form are the tools of fools. When I arrived in Las Vegas in 1984 I noticed immediately that everyone was applying subjectivity and current form to wager on games, and virtually everyone was losing and whining. Huh. Some kind of disconnect going on here. Since the subjectivity is unlikely to improve dramatically, maybe the idea is to jettison subjectivity as much as possible.

That's where the wonderful systems come into play. Of course, you have to find them. It wasn't as easy in that era because I was doing it all manually using every record book I could find. Not until years later did I wisely invest in a Quadra 610 and figured out how to compile spreadsheets. I found lots of angles like the one identified in the article. At one point I had far too many of them and there were inevitable conflicts, some systems pointing to one team and others to the other team. I had to dial back to the most basic and most reliable.

Ohio State, as indicated, is on an amazing recruiting run itself. That has been somewhat camouflaged the past two seasons due to the staggering ineptitude of Little Game Barrett at quarterback. Meyer's offense always relies on high volume rushing attempts which paves the way for effective lethal passing. Virtually every starting quarterback under Meyer has managed huge yards per attempt. Alex Smith averaged 8.9 YPA for his career under Meyer at Utah. Tebow was 9.3 at Florida. At Ohio State every starting quarterback has been above 8.0 yards per attempt except Little Game each of the past two seasons. Barrett was 6.7 in both 2015 and 2016.

That is beyond disgraceful, given the overwhelming NFL talent on that roster. It should have made Little Game the subject of national scrutiny and ridicule throughout, but somehow he dodged it completely. Barrett was at his worst in the most meaningful games, like 2.9 YPA in the home upset loss to Michigan State as 14 point underdog in 2015, the game that kept an absolutely stacked Buckeye team out of the playoffs. Then last year Little Game managed 3.8 YPA in the playoff shutout loss to Clemson. That Clemson team had excellent talent but was hardly a juggernaut defensively, as evidenced by the Pittsburgh game and several other games. A loss wasn't particularly unexpected but to be shut out was Little Game at his finest.

The bizarre aspect is that Barrett was among the quarterbacks who managed the 8.0+ under Meyer. He had an excellent 9.0 YPA as freshman starter in 2014. So somehow Barrett bypassed the 8s and 7s completely all the way down to 6.7 twice.

I am unaware of a similar inexplicable decline in college football history.

Anyway, as a probability guy I would expect Barrett to rebound sharply this season. If he does not, and puts up anything resembling that 6.7 again, Barrett deserves to be one of the true laughingstock quarterbacks in college football history. He almost singlehandedly restrained those two great Buckeye rosters of 2015 and 2016. Cardale Jones was averaging well above 8 YPA in 2015 when Urban Meyer made the masochistic subjective decision to change quarterbacks.

CIS should hire you.
 

JayCane20

Seasoned Vet
Joined
Nov 30, 2014
Messages
6,102
Improve the formula by removing Auburn and Notre Dame and they might be on to something. Use a little common sense mixed with their mathematical calculations
 

Cane Dynasty

Thunderdome Survivor
Joined
Feb 27, 2013
Messages
20,009
Terrific article and angle. Emphasizes big picture logic and ruins the Happy Adjusters. I posted last week on the college forum of a Dolphins site that Alabama should be the preseason #1 every season in this era, as long as they keep up the surreal recruiting pace and rare defensive intensity. Otherwise you're making subjective decisions where they don't belong.

Subjectivity and current form are the tools of fools. When I arrived in Las Vegas in 1984 I noticed immediately that everyone was applying subjectivity and current form to wager on games, and virtually everyone was losing and whining. Huh. Some kind of disconnect going on here. Since the subjectivity is unlikely to improve dramatically, maybe the idea is to jettison subjectivity as much as possible.

That's where the wonderful systems come into play. Of course, you have to find them. It wasn't as easy in that era because I was doing it all manually using every record book I could find. Not until years later did I wisely invest in a Quadra 610 and figured out how to compile spreadsheets. I found lots of angles like the one identified in the article. At one point I had far too many of them and there were inevitable conflicts, some systems pointing to one team and others to the other team. I had to dial back to the most basic and most reliable.

Ohio State, as indicated, is on an amazing recruiting run itself. That has been somewhat camouflaged the past two seasons due to the staggering ineptitude of Little Game Barrett at quarterback. Meyer's offense always relies on high volume rushing attempts which paves the way for effective lethal passing. Virtually every starting quarterback under Meyer has managed huge yards per attempt. Alex Smith averaged 8.9 YPA for his career under Meyer at Utah. Tebow was 9.3 at Florida. At Ohio State every starting quarterback has been above 8.0 yards per attempt except Little Game each of the past two seasons. Barrett was 6.7 in both 2015 and 2016.

That is beyond disgraceful, given the overwhelming NFL talent on that roster. It should have made Little Game the subject of national scrutiny and ridicule throughout, but somehow he dodged it completely. Barrett was at his worst in the most meaningful games, like 2.9 YPA in the home upset loss to Michigan State as 14 point underdog in 2015, the game that kept an absolutely stacked Buckeye team out of the playoffs. Then last year Little Game managed 3.8 YPA in the playoff shutout loss to Clemson. That Clemson team had excellent talent but was hardly a juggernaut defensively, as evidenced by the Pittsburgh game and several other games. A loss wasn't particularly unexpected but to be shut out was Little Game at his finest.

The bizarre aspect is that Barrett was among the quarterbacks who managed the 8.0+ under Meyer. He had an excellent 9.0 YPA as freshman starter in 2014. So somehow Barrett bypassed the 8s and 7s completely all the way down to 6.7 twice.

I am unaware of a similar inexplicable decline in college football history.

Anyway, as a probability guy I would expect Barrett to rebound sharply this season. If he does not, and puts up anything resembling that 6.7 again, Barrett deserves to be one of the true laughingstock quarterbacks in college football history. He almost singlehandedly restrained those two great Buckeye rosters of 2015 and 2016. Cardale Jones was averaging well above 8 YPA in 2015 when Urban Meyer made the masochistic subjective decision to change quarterbacks.

CIS should hire you.

Broke already has the jizzmopper position locked down.
 

scrantoncane

Sophomore
Joined
Nov 5, 2011
Messages
2,061
I forgot to mention that if the angle fails this year and some team outside the 10 wins the national championship, no doubt the adjusters will flock back to this thread to mock matters.

That's so typical of the outlier crew, no grasp whatsoever of the wide scope, not when they can tunnel vision the here and now.

I'll merely use it as a guide next season and beyond, the same way I use the amazing preseason ratings to identify undervalued teams late each season and in the bowl games.

This is the Dooger I know and love. Watch out, Happy Adjusters, Dooger is back!


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