I'll preface this by saying transitive property doesn't work often in sports for a variety of reasons. That said, given how recently each team has played Ohio State, I don't think it's useless to look at the stats on how each team played vs them.
We'll start with the ground game.
vs Indiana they were able to get 58 yards on 26 carries for a 2.23 average
vs Miami 45 yards on 24 carries for a 1.88 average
When you back out sacks the numbers look like this.
vs Indiana 87 yards on 21 carries for a 4.14 average
vs Miami 87 yards on 19 carries for a 4.58 average
Defensively it looks like this.
vs Indiana 118 yards on 34 carries for a 3.47 average
vs Miami 153 yards on 37 carries for a 4.14 average
After backing out sacks.
vs Indiana 128 yards on 31 carries for a 4.13 average
vs Miami 158 yards on 35 carries for a 4.51 average
Looking at tackles for a loss now.
vs Indiana 9 tackles for loss allowed for 38 yards lost
vs Miami 7 tackles for loss allowed for 46 yards lost
And on the other side of the ball.
vs Indiana they secured 4 tackles for loss for 11 yards lost
vs Miami they secured 4 tackles for loss for 12 yards lost
Looking at Ohio State's passing offense.
vs Indiana 22 of 30(73.3%) for 264 yards(8.8 yards/attempt) with 1 TD and 1 INT
vs Miami 22 of 35(62.9%) for 287 yards(8.2 yards/attempt) with 1 TD and 2 INT
Defensively it was.
vs Indiana 15 of 23(65.2%) for 222 yards(9.7 yards/attempt) with 1 TD and 1 INT
vs Miami 19 of 26(73.1%) for 138 yards(5.3 yards/attempt) with 1 TD and 0 INT
Overall offense.
vs Indiana 322 yards on 56 plays for a 5.75 yards/play average
vs Miami 332 yards on 59 plays for a 5.63 yards/play average
Overall defense.
vs Indiana 340 yards on 57 plays for a 5.96 yards/play average
vs Miami 291 yards on 63 plays for a 4.62 yards/play average
I am not going to tally explosives, but looking at general stats.
vs Indiana Jackson had a run of 20 yards, Smith had a long reception of 52 yards, Tate and Klare had receptions of 20 yards
vs Miami Jackson had a long of 18 yards, Smith had a long of 59, nobody else was higher than 15(Tate)
On the other side of the ball.
vs Indiana Black had a long run of 37 yards, Becker had a long of 51, nobody else was higher than 17(Saratt)
vs Miami Fletcher's long was 19, Fletcher also coincidentally had the long reception at 16
General takeaways:
- Indiana was slightly better vs the run defensively than Miami was
- Miami was better running the ball than Indiana was
- Indiana was better passing the ball vertically than Miami was
- Miami was better defending the pass than Indiana was(Smith was still not 100% vs Indiana either, just saying)
- Indiana was able to find the big plays that Miami failed to hit on all night
My feel for the game doesn't change much after seeing these numbers. Stopping their run while being able to run ourselves remains priority number 1. If we can keep them to 3.5 yards/carry or worse, their offense loses a lot of efficiency. If we're able to lean on Duo and our size advantage and keep Fletcher at 4.5+ yards carry, that's going to keep our drives alive and wear their defense down.
Then, the defense has to find a way to disrupt the timing of the Indiana passing game to get Mendoza uncomfortable and they absolutely cannot let Becker stretch the field vertically throughout the night. The pass rush needs to harass Mendoza anytime they try a traditional drop back while the CBs need to fight through the entire catch process to break up any 50/50 balls Mendoza does get off. Their offense loves throwing backshoulder or throwing a jumpball to Becker.
The other obvious aspects are we cannot beat ourselves with turnovers and penalties. Indiana has been as disciplined as anyone all year and has not beaten themselves. Hopefully they are due a bad game and their turnover luck runs out this game and they get flustered and commit 8 penalties on the night. You can't bank on that, though. Play like you did vs Ohio State, don't beat yourself with penalties and keep the ball out of harms way.
Not all of the above has to happen to win. We can win the run game, not shoot ourselves in the foot, and give up plays in the passing game and still win a close one. If we do win the run game on both sides, fluster their pass game, and play a clean game, then it can play out like the Ohio State game where it's still a competitive game that's not quite as stressful as the Ole Miss game. And, if it's just our night and we do all of the above and Indiana finally has a game where they are making mistakes, then we can have a VT 2017 type of game where we win something like 28-13 and it's a party in the 4th as we count down to #6.