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The Disaster that is the 2025 CFP Committee and Thoughts on Championship Weekend

FL Cane

FL Cane

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It has been said repeatedly, and it will continue to be said until the end of this CFB Season: the 2025 CFP Committee is the most incompetent of any prior committee by a wide margin. Here are some thoughts on the CFP as we wind down Conference Championship Weekend and move to final selection.
  • It is very obvious, after Miami's loss to SMU, that the CFPC believed Miami would lose another game. There was no thought given to Miami winning out. That's why we were ranked at 18, despite losing by 6 in OT. Many, including Kirk Herbstreit, called out this mistake today. Make no mistake, the CFPC was praying for another Miami loss after SMU, they just didn't get it.

  • In the history of the CFP, a team that lost a H2H matchup to an opponent with the same final record has never been ranked ahead of them. The CFPC, not wanting to deal with their mistake of ranking Miami too low after the SMU loss, has been kicking this can down the road. Now, a decision has to happen. For one, Miami and ND have almost identical metrics. Miami also has greater margins of victory against 3/4 common opponents and the H2H. No one in CFB media - beyond the insufferable Joey Galloway - believes that ND should be in over Miami at this point.

  • The CFPC, though, has another opportunity to make things right. Alabama has looked terrible in the last quarter of the season, scraping by 4-8 South Carolina, 7-5 LSU, and 5-7 Auburn. Today, as we all saw, UGA demolished Alabama in the SECCG. When it comes to the vaunted "eye test," the Crimson Tide fail by a wide margin. Also, Bama has the two worst losses of any CFP contender. A double-digit loss to 5-7 FSU, and a now 21-point loss to UGA. The CFPC cannot, on the one hand, penalize 11-2 BYU for getting blown out in the B12CG, and turn around and give 10-3 Bama a pass for getting blown out in the SECCG. At this point, Miami and ND should be in over Alabama. They've lost 2 out of their last 4, and have looked terrible since the end of October.

  • Many have argued against Bama's potential CFP exclusion by threatening the elimination of conference championship games. For one, this is an empty threat. The amount of money conference championships make for the networks and the conferences is obscene. They wouldn't cancel these games. Second, these games have always been a double-edged sword. Win, and you're in without a doubt. Lose, and you could be out. If you ask any team to either leave it to fate to get in, or have a chance to clinch a spot, they'll always go with a chance to clinch the spot.

  • Back to Alabama, the tide are - ironically - the team responsible for the chaos of the past few weeks. Had Alabama beat OU a few weeks ago, none of the present debate would be happening. Miami, ND, and Bama would all comfortably be in the CFP. Alabama's failure to beat OU made the CFPC's job that much harder. Again, they should not be in the CFP. Worst loss of any CFP contender and a blowout loss today.
All in all, the CFPC can make 90% of the country happy by doing the obvious: putting Miami and ND in the CFP. Both teams are deserving and finished the year strong. Neither has a loss as terrible as to 5-7 FSU or a blowout against a conference opponent. This avoids the dreaded Miami/ND debate, and it leaves Bama where it should be, outside looking in as a result of a terrible last quarter of the season. Whether it happens is yet to be seen, but Bama getting into the playoff would be on par with the FSU snub for absolutely outrageous decisions.
 
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FL Cane said:
It has been said repeatedly, and it will continue to be said until the end of this CFB Season: the 2025 CFP Committee is the most incompetent of any prior committee by a wide margin. Here are some thoughts on the CFP as we wind down Conference Championship Weekend and move to final selection.
  • It is very obvious, after Miami's loss to SMU, that the CFPC believed Miami would lose another game. There was no thought given to Miami winning out. That's why we were ranked at 18, despite losing by 6 in OT. Many, including Kirk Herbstreit, called out this mistake today. Make no mistake, the CFPC was praying for another Miami loss after SMU, they just didn't get it.

  • In the history of the CFP, a team that lost a H2H matchup to an opponent with the same final record has never been ranked ahead of them. The CFPC, not wanting to deal with their mistake of ranking Miami too low after the SMU loss, has been kicking this can down the road. Now, a decision has to happen. For one, Miami and ND have almost identical metrics. Miami also has greater margins of victory against 3/4 common opponents and the H2H. No one in CFB media - beyond the insufferable Joey Galloway - believes that ND should be in over Miami at this point.

  • The CFPC, though, has another opportunity to make things right. Alabama has looked terrible in the last quarter of the season, scraping by 4-8 South Carolina, 7-5 LSU, and 5-7 Auburn. Today, as we all saw, UGA demolished Alabama in the SECCG. When it comes to the vaunted "eye test," the Crimson Tide fail by a wide margin. Also, Bama has the two worst losses of any CFP contender. A double-digit loss to 5-7 FSU, and a now 21-point loss to UGA. The CFPC cannot, on the one hand, penalize 11-2 BYU for getting blown out in the B12CG, and turn around and give 10-3 Bama a pass for getting blown out in the SECCG. At this point, Miami and ND should be in over Alabama. They've lost 2 out of their last 4, and have looked terrible since the end of October.

  • Many have argued against Bama's potential CFP exclusion by threatening the elimination of conference championship games. For one, this is an empty threat. The amount of money conference championships make for the networks and the conferences is obscene. They wouldn't cancel these games. Second, these games have always been a double-edged sword. Win, and you're in without a doubt. Lose, and you could be out. If you ask any team to either leave it to fate to get in, or have a chance to clinch a spot, they'll always go with a chance to clinch the spot.

  • Back to Alabama, the tide are - ironically - the team responsible for the chaos of the past few weeks. Had Alabama beat OU a few weeks ago, none of the present debate would be happening. Miami, ND, and Bama would all comfortably be in the CFP. Alabama's failure to beat OU made the CFPC's job that much harder. Again, they should not be in the CFP. Worst loss of any CFP contender and a blowout loss today.
All in all, the CFPC can make 90% of the country happy by doing the obvious: putting Miami and ND in the CFP. Both teams are deserving and finished the year strong. Neither has a loss as terrible as to 5-7 FSU or a blowout against a conference opponent. This avoids the dreaded Miami/ND debate, and it leaves Bama where it should be, outside looking in as a result of a terrible last quarter of the season. Whether it happens is yet to be seen, but Bama getting into the playoff would be on par with the FSU snub for absolutely outrageous decisions.
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makes so much sense and i hope you're right. we deserve to be in and everyone outside of the committee room has said so. unfortunately, as you said, this committee is historically incompetent and i'll believe it when i see it. at least after tomorrow we won't have to listen to hunter yuracheck interviews ever again
 
Yeah Baga is ahs juice right now! They looked terrible VS FSPoo and have regressed lately! They have no trenches AT ALL!
 
The one question they would not be able to weasel out of is why vault ND over Bama and not Miami?

Thieve is no reason or excuse they could say without looking stupid.
 
canes518 said:
makes so much sense and i hope you're right. we deserve to be in and everyone outside of the committee room has said so. unfortunately, as you said, this committee is historically incompetent and i'll believe it when i see it. at least after tomorrow we won't have to listen to hunter yuracheck interviews ever again
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People really underestimate how big the media push is for us. This was also the case for Bama over FSU in 2023. You've got about a 90/10 media split in favor of Miami getting in. Every broadcasting crew said the same thing today. No one, other than that cu** Joey Galloway has argued against us.
 
FL Cane said:
People really underestimate how big the media push is for us. This was also the case for Bama over FSU in 2023. You've got about a 90/10 media split in favor of Miami getting in. Every broadcasting crew said the same thing today. No one, other than that cu** Joey Galloway has argued against us.
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To pile on, the media narrative in ‘23 was you cannot put in Bama without putting in Texas who beat them.

We have that very same argument. You cannot put in ND and leave out Miami.
 
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