The Blue Chip Ratio - Running Back Edition

[DTP]

I agree that good running backs can still do work even behind a crappy line. Let’s compare 2019 and 2021. Both seasons, we averaged 3.8 ypc. Not good.

2019- DJ Dallas averaged 6.0 and Cam Harris still solid 5.1.

2021- Jaylan Knighton 3.9 Cam Harris 5.8
Miami before Harris injury: 4.3ypc
Miami without Harris: 3.0 ypc


Neither team had a great line but Dallas and Harris were still productive while Knighton just wasn’t capable of carrying that heavy of a load.

Any running back can run through huge holes but sometimes you need your back to do some of the work. The special guys can still find a way to get yards.

 

[TUSKtimes]

Here's the last 4 Alabama leading rushers and their career YPC's:

Damien Harris - 6.4
Najee Harris - 6.0
Josh Jacobs - 5.9
Brian Robinson - 5.0

Harris x2 & Jacobs didn't put up big numbers just because of the OL - it's because they're really good RB's.
Robinson ran behind the same great OL and had a bad ypc because he's just an average RB.

What I'm saying is Duke Johnson behind an average OL > Tyrone Moss behind a great OL.

I'm not saying OL play isn't important - I'm saying the talent of the RB is more important than the play of the OL.

Talent will always help, but we all know that. Najee Harris had better years than others also for many different reasons. In 2020 we had a devastating O-line but we also has an offensive scheme that catered to Najee's talent. In 2020 we put our running game in 12 personnel (double tight end looks) all year and still managed to stay explosive through the air. I mean, our WR Devonta Smith won the Heisman. This was also because the play-action suited Mac Jones to a Tee. So our 3 headed monster that season all thrived out of heavy personnel that Sarkisian moved around brilliantly. Part of the reason BAMA was so unstoppable on the scoreboard was that we could run Najee in the red zone and it short-yardage and pay it off with TDs instead of field goals all season. Again, big boy football also came from big boy formations, not just talent.

By the way, Brian Robinson ran out of 11 and 10 personnel a lot more this season with Bryce Young's skill set and still had a couple of 200-yard games. No, he wasn't Najee, but neither is anyone else.

 

[bshaw28]

Any running back can run through huge holes but sometimes you need your back to do some of the work. The special guys can still find a way to get yards.

100% agree

I've posted this before - but the talent of our RB's is more important to our running success than the OL

When the OL ranked around 30 - Duke 6.8 > Homer 6.0 > Walton 5.3 - that's a reflection of their talent, not the OL play & Scheme

When the OL ranked around 100 - Dallas 6.0 > Cam 5.1 > Yearby 4.9 - again a reflection of their talent (IMO Cam & Yearby are similar talents)

 

[bshaw28]

Talent will always help, but we all know that. Najee Harris had better years than others also for many different reasons. In 2020 we had a devastating O-line but we also has an offensive scheme that catered to Najee's talent. In 2020 we put our running game in 12 personnel (double tight end looks) all year and still managed to stay explosive through the air. I mean, our WR Devonta Smith won the Heisman. This was also because the play-action suited Mac Jones to a Tee. So our 3 headed monster that season all thrived out of heavy personnel that Sarkisian moved around brilliantly. Part of the reason BAMA was so unstoppable on the scoreboard was that we could run Najee in the red zone and it short-yardage and pay it off with TDs instead of field goals all season. Again, big boy football also came from big boy formations, not just talent.

By the way, Brian Robinson ran out of 11 and 10 personnel a lot more this season with Bryce Young's skill set and still had a couple of 200-yard games. No, he wasn't Najee, but neither is anyone else.

So compare Najee vs Robinson in the same years - same OL, scheme, etc.

Najee ran for 1.0 ypc more because he's more talented.

IMO - Robinson ran for 5.0 2017-20 as a backup, then 5.0 in 2021 as a starter because that's what his talent level is. OL & Scheme had very little do with it.

I'd say:
1) I don't want to hate on Robinson too much - but there's 100 NCAA RB's that could average 5.0 ypc in Bama's offense.
2) I don't want to say OL & Scheme aren't important - but it's more like Talent 60% - OL 25% - Scheme 15%

Don't quote me on those %'s - that's just an off the top of my head visual to show that Talent is much more the determining factor to a RB's success (at the college level. RB's are MUCH more dependent on OL in the NFL)

 

[Novacane32000]

@bshaw28 All good points on RB talent. I remember Butch Davis addressing this subject on live radio while he was here at Miami (I remember because I called in to ask the question( OL vs RB talent)) and though he did not de-emphasize the importance of the OL he was adamant about having top tier RB talent and it seemed obvious he preferred it.

Kirby Smart seems to get credit for saying " You can't outcoach good recruiting". Manny knew this but just couldn't deliver at an elite level. Mario seems to know how to get this done which gives me hope we can improve the talent level at both OL and RB.

 

[caneizzle#1]

True, but we also had a pathetically simple game plan as far as the running game was concerned. As an OC, you have to help the weak links of your team, with your calls. Basically put…. you can’t run inside zone 95% of the time behind a noticeably weak OL, and have it be an effective running game.

Absolutely agree. I'm just looking forward to the one variable that hasn't been elite to being elite soon. I believe there is a plethora of plays that look way more reasonable when the OL is pushing and pulling together with top talent.

 

[TC@ne]

Wait so now we’re saying despite having arguably the most talented RB room in the conference (according to recruit rankings) we actually don’t because everyone single one was significantly overrated?

The rankings are just that bad and we’re just that bad at evaluations that all of our blue chip RB’s actually make up the worst RB room in the ACC?

Lol miss me with that.

 

[bshaw28]

@bshaw28 All good points on RB talent. I remember Butch Davis addressing this subject on live radio while he was here at Miami (I remember because I called in to ask the question( OL vs RB talent)) and though he did not de-emphasize the importance of the OL he was adamant about having top tier RB talent and it seemed obvious he preferred it.

Kirby Smart seems to get credit for saying " You can't outcoach good recruiting". Manny knew this but just couldn't deliver at an elite level. Mario seems to know how to get this done which gives me hope we can improve the talent level at both OL and RB.

Butch was the best at identifying talent - recruiting Clinton Portis at RB instead of DB like other schools is one example. Wisconsin is probably best at identifying the best RB & OL talent outside the top guys recently.

Kirby is right - and the top schools like Georgia. Bama, LSU, Ohio St - generally get the best OL and RB talent - so they don't have to worry what's more important when there's talent everywhere.

Mario has the right mentality. Easily could've said we're good at RB with Chaney/Knighton/Thad when he got here. But he brought in Parrish and went hard at Citizen, which was a longshot pull. Don't be satisfied with some highly recruited RB's that haven't proven anything yet - keep attacking & keep stacking.

 

[CANEMC]

 

[DTP]

Wait so now we’re saying despite having arguably the most talented RB room in the conference (according to recruit rankings) we actually don’t because everyone single one was significantly overrated?

The rankings are just that bad and we’re just that bad at evaluations that all of our blue chip RB’s actually make up the worst RB room in the ACC?

Lol miss me with that.

None of those talented recruits has really played more than a handful of snaps besides Knighton. We’ve seen what Knighton can and can’t do. He’s a RB2 on a good team. Chaney looked solid his freshman year and then missed pretty much the entire year last year. The jury is still out. Cody Brown and Thad Franklin got some run but hardly enough to come to any kind of conclusion. Our most accomplished running back is Henry Parrish and he hasn’t played a single snap for us. So yeah, based on actual production, our RB room is a whole lot of potential a very little actual production.

 

[TC@ne]

None of those talented recruits has really played more than a handful of snaps besides Knighton. We’ve seen what Knighton can and can’t do. He’s a RB2 on a good team. Chaney looked solid his freshman year and then missed pretty much the entire year last year. The jury is still out. Cody Brown and Thad Franklin got some run but hardly enough to come to any kind of conclusion. Our most accomplished running back is Henry Parrish and he hasn’t played a single snap for us. So yeah, based on actual production, our RB room is a whole lot of potential a very little actual production.

That’s kind of my point. We shouldn’t be quick to judge and label these RB’s as overrated.

There are a lot of variables that go into a RB’s success and o-line play, like health or experience, is part of it - idk how the idea that o-line play doesn’t matter is even being tossed around.

 

[DTP]

In 2020, with the same below average line and the same offense, Miami ran for 163 yards per game (66th in the nation) with an average of 4.3 yards per carry (68th). Middle of the road numbers but not bad. In 2021, you take away Chaney, King and only half a season of Harris and those numbers plummeted to 128 ypg (97th) and 3.8 ypc (98th). Same offense, same line, same play caller. The only difference was the ball carriers in 2020 were better than 2021.

 

[DTP]

That’s kind of my point. We shouldn’t be quick to judge and label these RB’s as overrated.

There are a lot of variables that go into a RB’s success and o-line play, like health or experience, is part of it - idk how the idea that o-line play doesn’t matter is even being tossed around.

O line matters but the point being, good running backs can still produce even with mediocre/poor lines. Maybe Chaney is a difference maker, maybe one of the other guys is. The only thing I know for sure about the RB room is that Knighton isn’t that guy. Everyone else who has played in the same system with the same blockers has produced at a higher rate than him.

 

[TruCane81]

Here's the last 4 Alabama leading rushers and their career YPC's:

Damien Harris - 6.4
Najee Harris - 6.0
Josh Jacobs - 5.9
Brian Robinson - 5.0

Harris x2 & Jacobs didn't put up big numbers just because of the OL - it's because they're really good RB's.
Robinson ran behind the same great OL and had a bad ypc because he's just an average RB.

What I'm saying is Duke Johnson behind an average OL > Tyrone Moss behind a great OL.

I'm not saying OL play isn't important - I'm saying the talent of the RB is more important than the play of the OL.

Duh.

Wait so now we’re saying despite having arguably the most talented RB room in the conference (according to recruit rankings) we actually don’t because everyone single one was significantly overrated?

The rankings are just that bad and we’re just that bad at evaluations that all of our blue chip RB’s actually make up the worst RB room in the ACC?

Lol miss me with that.

People still don’t understand how bad the line was.

The difference between Cam and Rooster wasn’t talent. It was experience and patience.

Cam got a ton of hate when he was making chicken salad out of chicken ****. As talented as Rooster is, he couldn’t do it.

One of the guys @bshaw compared Rooster too is Sean Tucker of Syracuse who had a big year numbers wise. Go and watch Syracuse’s games. When they lost at the line, he was average as **** and easy to bottle up. He isn’t hard to bring down at all. But if you gave him a crease and got hats on second level defenders, he could explode through the hole and out run the defense. He makes his living on average altering long runs. Syracuse was MUCH better and more consistent getting hats on second level defenders than our line and THAT is the primary difference in production in this case.

We didn’t excell at any phase of blocking the inside zone. We struggled getting movement even with the double team. Guys couldn’t sustain blocks. We were SHOCKINGLY BAD getting hats on second level defenders. We allowed penetration on the front side AND backside. We couldn’t seal the front side edge or kick him to the outside. It took a guy of Cam’s underrated talent to get some production because of his patience. Without that experience, the run game fell completely apart.

Rooster will get over 5 yards a carry this year. The one thing people miss is how destructive Manny’s practice structure was and how over time his methods killed the physicality and sharpness of the run game. Mario, Gattis, and Mirabel WILL fix this and there will be a big improvement THIS season. Our line is not as bad as they have looked. Coaching, play calling and practice habits degraded our run game on a larger scale than is typical for a college team.

 

[TC@ne]

O line matters but the point being, good running backs can still produce even with mediocre/poor lines. Maybe Chaney is a difference maker, maybe one of the other guys is. The only thing I know for sure about the RB room is that Knighton isn’t that guy. Everyone else who has played in the same system with the same blockers has produced at a higher rate than him.

All I know is Rooster was used as a bell cow back - that’s not who he is and his YPC is a reflection of him being used in a role not suited to his strengths, on top of only playing P5 conference opponents.

He didn’t have any CCST’s, App States, or FAMU’s to rush for 150 yards on 12 carries against and boost his season average.

Factor in he won’t have to be getting 30 carry games and the run game will be much more creative, I expect a big jump in his production simply off the fact he won’t be running a dive on his 27th carry for the game that the whole defense knows is coming.

 

[TruCane81]

In 2020, with the same below average line and the same offense, Miami ran for 163 yards per game (66th in the nation) with an average of 4.3 yards per carry (68th). Middle of the road numbers but not bad. In 2021, you take away Chaney, King and only half a season of Harris and those numbers plummeted to 128 ypg (97th) and 3.8 ypc (98th). Same offense, same line, same play caller. The only difference was the ball carriers in 2020 were better than 2021.

Teams caught up with Lashlee too.

Once teams started going with that odd front like Clemson, we had no answer. They layed the blueprint to stuff us.

 

[DTP]

Teams caught up with Lashlee too.

Once teams started going with that odd front like Clemson, we had no answer. They layed the blueprint to stuff us.

It took a entire season and a half for teams to make that simple switch? Remember, Miami averaged 4.3 ypc through the first half of 2021. Then Harris went down and they fell to 3.0.

Also, Clemson played an even front defense under Brent Venables.

 

[DTP]

All I know is Rooster was used as a bell cow back - that’s not who he is and his YPC is a reflection of him being used in a role not suited to his strengths, on top of only playing P5 conference opponents.

He didn’t have any CCST’s, App States, or FAMU’s to rush for 150 yards on 12 carries against and boost his season average.

Factor in he won’t have to be getting 30 carry games and the run game will be much more creative, I expect a big jump in his production simply off the fact he won’t be running a dive on his 27th carry for the game that the whole defense knows is coming.

Rooster is definitely not an every down back but he really wasn’t much better as a RB3 in 2020 either.

2020 leading rushers:
Harris 5.1
Chaney 4.7
King 4.1
Knighton 4.0

He only averaged .1 yards per carry more when used in a limited role.

The second half opponents weren’t exactly a murderer’s row of run defenses either.

 

[TC@ne]

Rooster is definitely not an every down back but he really wasn’t much better as a RB3 in 2020 either.

2020 leading rushers:
Harris 5.1
Chaney 4.7
King 4.1
Knighton 4.0

He only averaged .1 yards per carry more when used in a limited role.

The second half opponents weren’t exactly a murderer’s row of run defenses either.

Again, I chalk it up to environment and not being used in the correct manner. Clearly none of the RBs were good that year and the only constant there is OL.

 

[insaneinthecane]

The OL can't make stars, but stars can't be stars without the OL.

That's why every great RB always thanks his Oline.