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The 2017 NFL Draft and our DTs next year

LuCane

LuCane

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Wanted to make this a separate thread specific to our DTs because I kept them in mind while researching for and studying the 2017 NFL draft. I've operated under the assumption the rumors are true regarding all of our underclassmen DTs leaving after next year. May or may not be true, but concerning for our 2018 team depending on some maneuvering by the staff (ala their work this past year with CBs). Nonetheless, they may leave after all, but what I learned was the decision should not be as straightforward for them as is being presented. A lot of it revolves around the risk for 3rd year DTs leaving early and some of the trends for NFL teams selecting DTs.

The 2017 draft showed us two things regarding DTs:

1. Only 2 of the Top 25 rated DTs were coming out after their 3rd year. A lot of those came out after 5 years! The highest rated true Junior is similar in style to RJ Mcintosh and was drafted 35th overall. Of course, he had question marks that Mcintosh might not after this upcoming year.
2. Only 1 DT, Senior Jonathon Allen, was selected in the 1st round. Not yet sure if this begins a trend of teams under-drafting DTs or if it's just an anomaly. The previous year there were 4 DTs taken in the 1st round, but 3 of the 4 were selected 27 or later, so they were on the fringe. Perhaps 2017 was just a down year for DTs. But, you saw a bunch of relatively talented guys slide down.

Comparisons:

- McIntosh may compare in style to Malik Mcdowell, who slid to #35 for a few different reasons. I think Mcintosh has the best chance to go in R1. If healthy, I think he may put up nice numbers this year. He had 8.5 TFLs and 2 sacks last year.

- The Miami Dolphins were able to pull Davon Godchaux, a player with a similar style though not as good as Kendrick Norton, in the 5th round. Godchaux made the mistake of leaving early. He had 9 TFLs as a Soph and 8.5 as a Junior. Norton had 10 TFLs as a Soph and we'll see what he does this upcoming year. I would hate for Norton to make the mistake of expecting to be a 1st rounder and be selected in the late 2nd or such, ala Dalvin Tomlinson (came out as a senior). Norton has to control the narrative. Jonathon Allen, for example, was given a lot of credit for returning to Alabama and being a "leader." Another thing to consider is how he'll test and what he can improve if he were to stay for his final year.

- The rumors of Gerald Willis leaving this year "no matter what" may be true, but they don't make a lot of sense (from the financial part) when you look through the draft selections. Unless he just believes he can't stay out of trouble long enough.

Conclusion:

Can they all still leave? Sure. Anything is possible and I trust a lot of the people saying they have inside information on this topic. However, the players should really take a step back, wait for their draft grades and then realize what has happened with some of the DTs who slid. Mcdowell (2017) was being talked about as a potential Top 15 pick. There are others who slid way down. Then again, the NFL tends to work in swings, so we shall see.
 
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Lu- do you think Moton (and Bethel?) project to be rotational DLinemen in the NFL? I haven't watched enough tape on Moton specifically to see if he flashes pro potential, but i'd be interested to hear your thoughts. He does have size and I would think he'll at least get a camp invite somewhere. Would also imagine a Kool recommendation (if he gives one) can get pretty much any DLineman in the door, especially one w physical tools.
 
Miamicane said:
Lu- do you think Moton (and Bethel?) project to be rotational DLinemen in the NFL? I haven't watched enough tape on Moton specifically to see if he flashes pro potential, but i'd be interested to hear your thoughts. He does have size and I would think he'll at least get a camp invite somewhere. Would also imagine a Kool recommendation (if he gives one) can get pretty much any DLineman in the door, especially one w physical tools.
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I've said I think Moten can play in the NFL. To what level, no idea. At minimum, I think he's got a chance to bounce around a bit.

I didn't get to watch him this Spring (2017), but D$ said he improved inside as a 1-Tech against the run, so we shall see. Last year, I watched him get upfield, spin and generally impress during practices. He wasn't all that productive during the regular season, though.

Too early on Bethel, but the kid has a couple impressive attributes: foot speed and motor. Watch him chase down a play as a True Frosh DE against FSU last year. Now imagine he continues to work hard in the weight room, focus on gaining good weight, and is asked to be an upfield guy at DT. I can see why that'd work and he's getting good reviews so far. We'll see what he does when he becomes a full-time contributor inside. Given where we stand and depending what the underclassmen do after 2017, we're most likely going to need Bethel to play well in 2018.
 
LuCane said:
Miamicane said:
Lu- do you think Moton (and Bethel?) project to be rotational DLinemen in the NFL? I haven't watched enough tape on Moton specifically to see if he flashes pro potential, but i'd be interested to hear your thoughts. He does have size and I would think he'll at least get a camp invite somewhere. Would also imagine a Kool recommendation (if he gives one) can get pretty much any DLineman in the door, especially one w physical tools.
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I've said I think Moten can play in the NFL. To what level, no idea. At minimum, I think he's got a chance to bounce around a bit.

I didn't get to watch him this Spring (2017), but D$ said he improved inside as a 1-Tech against the run, so we shall see. Last year, I watched him get upfield, spin and generally impress during practices. He wasn't all that productive during the regular season, though.

Too early on Bethel, but the kid has a couple impressive attributes: foot speed and motor. Watch him chase down a play as a True Frosh DE against FSU last year. Now imagine he continues to work hard in the weight room, focus on gaining good weight, and is asked to be an upfield guy at DT. I can see why that'd work and he's getting good reviews so far. We'll see what he does when he becomes a full-time contributor inside. Given where we stand and depending what the underclassmen do after 2017, we're most likely going to need Bethel to play well in 2018.
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Agreed on the Moton analysis. I think his money position is 1-Tech based on his size (and adding some more weight). Feel like he can get snaps at the pro level if he finds the right system and works hard. lots of these huge kids get by in high school and college with their size, but playing with effort really separates a lot of DLinemen who play vs those who don't in the NFL.
 
Cane Dynasty said:
We really only need 1 of them to stay in order to not push the panic button right?
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Scenarios

DT: Norton/Silvera/True Frosh or Grad Transfer
DT: Bethel/Ford/Martin

DT: Mcintosh/Silvera/True Frosh or Grad Transfer
DT: Bethel/Ford/Martin

If they all leave...

DT: Ford/Silvera/True Frosh or Grad Transfer
DT: Bethel/Martin
*This one would need a JuCo or Grad Transfer at a higher level.

Note: I'm currently playing Bethel as a projected 2018 starter because he's been in the system longer than Ford. Ford is a potential beast, but let's see what he does when he gets on campus. Silvera needs to get here as an EE, BTW. That'd help, but still never comfortable with True Frosh DTs unless they're Dexter Lawrence-level.
 
2017 was definitely a down year for defensive tackles. It's my favorite position to watch and leading to this draft was not particularly interesting solely because there weren't many top interior guys to evaluate.

Malik McDowell is not a true defensive tackle. He is 6-6 1/2 which is an extreme rarity for the position. I'd venture that virtually every other college team would have played McDowell outside, not inside. His inconsistency and lack of effort largely stem from that strange height and all the problems it causes for him, with guards and centers having easy access to his legs. Louis Riddick on ESPN showed several clips of McDowell with a strange stance and his feet virtually touching each other. That is not inept college coaching. I've seen it many times previously when teams try to force tall guys inside. Those players get so sick of each leg being wiped out by coke machine framed guards and centers that they brainstorm to move their legs together to provide less of a target.

Jerry Kramer made the famous block in the Ice Bowl to allow Bart Starr's winning touchdown. I was barely old enough to follow football in 1967 but I remember the details. Jethro Pugh was the lineman across from Kramer. He was easily submarined to clear the way for Starr. Jethro Pugh was 6-6. It's very possible if not likely that if Dallas had fielded a normal height defensive tackle that the sneak attempt either would have failed, or Lombardi would have chosen another play call. The Cowboys were early to prioritize athletic testing and to identify ideal body types for specific positions. Years later I saw an interview with Gil Brandt and someone else high up in the Cowboys organization in which they conceded that until the Jethro Pugh example they didn't realize that height could be a disadvantage at defensive tackle. I warned on Dolphin sites when Miami drafted Jordan Phillips out of Oklahoma that his 6-5 1/2 height was hardly ideal inside. Not surprisingly, Phillips has had the same type of flashes and frustration as McDowell.

2016 is a more relevant year to look at. Many defensive tackles were touted as high draft picks but most of them slipped including both Alabama guys. There was an immediate conclusion on draft review programs...the league is so pass oriented these days that the old standard plugger defensive tackles will not be drafted as highly as conventional wisdom allows. You need to be a special disruptor a la Warren Sapp to warrant top pick status.

I've watched Norton more than McIntosh. Norton is simply not a special athlete so I'd be very surprised if he enters early or gets drafted early. McIntosh didn't jump out at me but it's possible I ignored him more than warranted. Since the Canes have had so many superb defensive tackles from my youth I'd be surprised if we had someone like that and it didn't stand out. If we had a guy like that he would be earning all the attention, not the freshman linebackers.

If you want a comparison a decent one might be Chris Jones from 2016. He was a Mississippi State defensive tackle who was touted by some as a first round pick. Talented. But other scouting reports said that Jones was benefiting from the Mississippi State style of relentless upfield pressure from the flanks, forcing attention and double teams on those guys and leaving the interior rushers an easier job than they would otherwise enjoy and looking more dangerous than they really are. Jones was picked 37th.
 
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If Willis leaves early because he can't stay out of trouble then he won't get drafted anyway. Without question, Willis would be making a grave error by leaving early.
 
The Franchise said:
If Willis leaves early because he can't stay out of trouble then he won't get drafted anyway. Without question, Willis would be making a grave error by leaving early.
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Agree with you but the kid has said before he's out of here asap. Hopefully that means he realizes it's a money year and plays like a beast.
 
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