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Texas A&M thread

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Calinative said:
Yup, I pointed this out too.
Also check his grades when blitzed vs not blized.... When you blitze him he's hard to bring down and then you give him an easier read basically and Craver/Concepcion are very good after the catch.

Comp% and TD:INT ratio PA vs NO PA is big difference.

Calinative

Post in thread 'Is it just me or is Texas A&M fools gold?'

JustAFanHTX said:
If moss plays he’ll be limited but I mostly agree with that you said. This is the first a&m team in recent memory that doesn’t have a great cover corner imo. Our WR’s should be able to run around a bit. I’m terrified for our linebackers though, this will be the toughest game they’ll have ever played I think. They’ll be tested all night. I know people are down on Jojo but if there was ever a game for him to get off it’s this one. Mali is Mali but they’re gonna do whatever they can to take him away, and their best cover guy will probably see CJ. If somehow we can get Jojo looks we’ll get...
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Seems like he has alot of turnover worthy plays also..
 
Pate took A&M to win and cover on yesterday’s pod. Said his model is closer to -5.5 as opposed to -3.5 out there. Said he wouldn’t bet it but he’s going with TAMU

 
The U is back to work said:
Pate took A&M to win and cover on yesterday’s pod. Said his model is closer to -5.5 as opposed to -3.5 out there. Said he wouldn’t bet it but he’s going with TAMU

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There’s a lot to like about their situation. They’re at home. Home playoff teams did well last year. Indiana Smu Clemson Tennessee all lost on the road first round.

They’ve got offensive explosion potential. But we will see. Our defense is as good as they have faced. And our offense has upward momentum
 
I watched that South Carolina game and Texas game. I know UT was at home but watching that game they are gettable I just hope we’ve got some exotic coverages to confused Reed because he can pour INTs on (as can Beck).
 
The aggies just look really soft at times. We are more physical. Probably the most physical team they will face all year.
They also give up way too many explosive plays.

They do have the coaching advantage. They will do misdirection and trick plays that may give us fits. Concepcion is going to probably have a few positive plays like when was with the Wolfpack.

It all of course comes down to turnovers and which team just executes better. I think we will come out on top.
 
OrangeBowlMagic said:
**** every bit of A&M but there will be absolutely zero Mike Leach slander here of any kind. A ******* legend.
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Have enforcers like Thomas and Scott will have aTm wide outs second guessing themselves.

Beck has a red beam on that arm with it getting stronger **** near all of his tough throws have been in-between the numbers for his receivers.

We have alot of advantages the only dis-advantage we have is it being an away game imo.

(After seeing brown in a boot and still waiting on info on Scott that aTM could have an advantage in our secondary)

Just play a full 4 quarter game limit major mistakes. UM can dominate.
 
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305407cane said:
There’s a lot to like about their situation. They’re at home. Home playoff teams did well last year. Indiana Smu Clemson Tennessee all lost on the road first round.

They’ve got offensive explosion potential. But we will see. Our defense is as good as they have faced. And our offense has upward momentum
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Difference is Clemson SMU Indiana and Tennessee were all paper tigers. They got waxed by all the truly good teams they played and struggled with average teams.
 
The U is back to work said:
Pate took A&M to win and cover on yesterday’s pod. Said his model is closer to -5.5 as opposed to -3.5 out there. Said he wouldn’t bet it but he’s going with TAMU

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When half of your model is "SEC - yes or no" that's what you get.

It was really funny when he couldn't figure out why Texas jumped from like 10th to 1st by a mile on his model immediately after they moved to the SEC and he was surprised. He had to manually dial back the model blowing Texas on a weekly basis. Already inflated and then the only thing that changes is the conference they're in... tells me you're baking the conference in there.. which shouldn't be a factor at all unless you're catering to someone.
 
F-MarioCristobal said:
When half of your model is "SEC - yes or no" that's what you get.

It was really funny when he couldn't figure out why Texas jumped from like 10th to 1st by a mile on his model immediately after they moved to the SEC and he was surprised. He had to manually dial back the model blowing Texas on a weekly basis. Already inflated and then the only thing that changes is the conference they're in... tells me you're baking the conference in there.. which shouldn't be a factor at all unless you're catering to someone.
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100%. The guy would be better off watching some ******* football games. Go ahead and downvote, but I've always been indifferent to this dude. A click baiter through and through.
 
LuCane said:
100%. The guy would be better off watching some ******* football games. Go ahead and downvote, but I've always been indifferent to this dude. A click baiter through and through.
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As I've said many times, I've known Josh since he was covering GA HS football years ago. Since 2016ish. He sent me a link to his channel to share and subscribe back in probably 2019 and I was one of his first 10-15 subscribers on Youtube and Spotify.

I understand why he has to be that way. He has some things that push him that way that I can't fault him for. Now, he's getting closer and closer to ESPN and its only getting worse with every step he takes. Sad to see because he used to have one of the best and most unbiased takes on most topics.
 
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F-MarioCristobal said:
When half of your model is "SEC - yes or no" that's what you get.

It was really funny when he couldn't figure out why Texas jumped from like 10th to 1st by a mile on his model immediately after they moved to the SEC and he was surprised. He had to manually dial back the model blowing Texas on a weekly basis. Already inflated and then the only thing that changes is the conference they're in... tells me you're baking the conference in there.. which shouldn't be a factor at all unless you're catering to someone.
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Eh. If SEC teams consistently outperform in betting markets and are over ranked at the end of the year, id actually argue that it would be correctly accounting for it tbh.

Like if you were trying to gamble on what the rankings by the committee/AP were gonna be, why wouldn't you bake in extra pts based on conference. If the SEC has a say 75% win% against the other conferences it seems reasonable to bake it in a little bit too ... But that'd be more as a whole view. Not necessarily a single game view.

Now if you were trying to actually make your own objective you wouldnt do that. But is that the goal or was the models goal to win money?
 
Calinative said:
Eh. If SEC teams consistently outperform in betting markets and are over ranked at the end of the year, id actually argue that it would be correctly accounting for it tbh.

Like if you were trying to gamble on what the rankings by the committee/AP were gonna be, why wouldn't you bake in extra pts based on conference. If the SEC has a say 75% win% against the other conferences it seems reasonable to bake it in a little bit too ... But that'd be more as a whole view. Not necessarily a single game view.

Now if you were trying to actually make your own objective you wouldnt do that. But is that the goal or was the models goal to win money?
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His model's goal is to mirror/decipher Vegas odds and establish h2h lines based on a power ranking.
 
F-MarioCristobal said:
His model's goal is to mirror/decipher Vegas odds and establish h2h lines based on a power ranking.
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But it's specifically not to mirror vegas odds because his goal is to use it to bet against Vegas by seeing where the bigger differences are that he'd default to... At least pretty sure.

All I'm saying is if I was trying to create a predictive model for like the CFP I'd factor in SEC or not... If you're trying to compare teams OOC against each other giving SEC a boost is no different than factoring in SOS to create a SOR to use as one of your power rating metric
 
Calinative said:
But it's specifically not to mirror vegas odds because his goal is to use it to bet against Vegas by seeing where the bigger differences are that he'd default to... At least pretty sure.

All I'm saying is if I was trying to create a predictive model for like the CFP I'd factor in SEC or not... If you're trying to compare teams OOC against each other giving SEC a boost is no different than factoring in SOS to create a SOR to use as one of your power rating metric
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Correct. Either understand or decipher vegas odds to identify gaps that he can bet.

He's trying to beat Vegas at their own game, essentially.

Bold strategy. I had a friend use all of his ramen noodle express picks in 2022 or 2023 and he went like +2 units on the full year.
 
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